“I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong… I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.” — George Soros

1. July Home Sales Fell After Higher Mortgage Rates Scared Off Buyers — Sales of existing homes declined 1.7% in July over the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, the National Association of Realtors said. Mortgage rates briefly fell below 6% in February, but jumped with the beginning of the Iran war, and have continued to creep up as hopes for a clean end to the conflict have faded.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69% last week, the fifth consecutive week of increases, after averaging 6.43% at the start of July, according to Freddie Mac.
Many homeowners benefiting from low rates from years ago have opted to stay put to maintain their rates, which has dragged down available inventory. NAR said unsold inventory in July fell 1.9% from June to 1.54 million units.
2. Inflation Was 3.4% in July, Down Slightly From the Previous Month — Stop-and-start peace negotiations in the Middle East brought a respite for gasoline prices. And so-called core prices, which exclude the volatile food and energy categories, rose by 0.2% in July from the previous month, a relatively modest increase offering hope that broader price pressures could be abating. Core prices rose by 2.5% over the past 12 months, down from 2.6% in the year through June. The relatively modest increase in underlying inflation may relieve some immediate pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in September.
3. US Wholesale Inflation Cools — The producer price index rose 4.7% from July 2025 after a 5.5% annual increase in June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Thursday. On a month-over-month basis, the PPI was unchanged. Excluding food and energy, producer prices climbed 4.2% from a year ago and 0.2% compared with June.The PPI report follows consumer price data showing moderating inflation, adding to evidence that the initial war-driven energy shock is continuing to fade. It will also give Fed officials more room to weigh lingering inflation pressures against a recent slowdown in hiring.
4. Weak Retail-Sales Number Adds to Softening Economic Data — The value of retail purchases, which isn’t adjusted for inflation, decreased 0.6%, the most since May 2025, according to data published Friday by the Census Bureau. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales fell 0.2%. The report suggests consumers took a breather last month after a stronger first half of 2026, though some analysts also warned the numbers could be affected by spending pulled forward after Amazon.com Inc. moved its Prime Day sales event to June this year from July the year before. Five of 13 categories in the report posted declines, led by a 2.2% drop in sales at nonstore retailers such as Amazon. Sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers fell 1.8%. Meanwhile receipts at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, rose 0.5%.

strong>The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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