“Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.” — Jesse Livermore.

1. Ford’s Push for 100% Self-Driving Car By 2021 — a major announcement from Ford that it will develop a 100% autonomous vehicle by 2021 could have far-reaching effects in a variety of sectors. “The first application of the fully autonomous vehicle will be commercial applications, whether it’s ride-hailing or parcel delivery,” Ford (NYSE:F) CEO Mark Fields told Recode. Companies that could be eyeing purchasing self-driving car fleets include FedEx (NYSE:FDX), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), UPS (NYSE:UPS), Domino’s Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), Papa John’s (NASDAQ:PZZA), Avis (NASDAQ:CAR) and Hertz (NYSE:HTZ).
2. Federal Reserve’s July Meeting Minutes — Fed officials were divided over the urgency to raise interest rates in July meeting Minutes. A gauge of the greenback struggled to extend its rally from a three-month low as the chance of a Fed rate increase before the year is out fell back below 50 percent, according to futures prices tracked by Bloomberg. Fed’s Williams wants a rate hike as Williams isn’t a voter on the FOMC this year.
3. U.K. Financial Sector Targets Swiss-Style EU Deal — the City of London has relinquished hopes the U.K. will retain full access to the European single market for goods and services, according to the FT. Officials from the financial sector have concluded that a Norway-style deal is untenable, and are now looking to imitate and build on Switzerland’s deal with the EU, where only some industries have full access to the single market.
4. Dept Of Justice (DOJ) To End Use of Private Prisons — the Justice Department announced plans to phase out its use of privately operated prisons, calling them less safe and a poor substitute for government-run facilities. Shares of the two leading U.S. private prison companies plummeted on the announcement: GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) ended down 39%, while Corrections Corp. of America (NYSE:CXW) sank 35%. The greater impact of the DOJ decision may be its trickle-down effect on state prison systems, which house the majority of U.S. prisoners.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“When you come to a fork in the road, take it!” – Yogi Bera

1. Marc Faber Calls For Ugly Stock Market Crash — the legendary bearish investor, Marc Faber, is forecasting a 50% crash in the S&P that would reverse all gains from the past five years. He’s unconvinced by the recent run-up in equities and warned central bank actions would increase volatility despite U.S. stock markets reaching fresh intraday highs and the Nasdaq just posting a new record close.
2. Wall Street Bonuses Expected To Decline — Wall Street bonuses are expected to decline this year for both bankers and traders as new regulations on trading and capital curb profits. Year-end compensation will be down 5-15% for investment bankers that advise on M&A, according to a widely followed report by Johnson Associates. Bankers who help companies raise equity and debt could see their compensation drop as much as 25%, while stock and bond traders could see a fall of as much as 15%.
3. Valeant (NYSE:VRX) Under Criminal Probe For Allegedly Defrauding Insurers Over Philidor — Federal prosecutors are investigating whether Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRX) defrauded insurers by shrouding its ties to the Philidor mail-order pharmacy that boosted sales of its drugs. The relationship between the two has been under scrutiny since last October; However, Dow Jones reports the new criminal probe is based on an unusual legal theory and could lead to criminal charges against former Philidor executives and Valeant as a company.
4. US Retail Sales Flat In July vs. 0.4% Increase Expected — the Commerce Department reported the unchanged reading last month followed an upwardly revised 0.8 percent increase in June. Retail sales in June were previously reported to have increased 0.6 percent. Sales rose 2.3 percent from a year ago. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales were also unchanged last month after an unrevised 0.5 percent increase in June.
5. China Data Offers More Evidence Of Slowdown — a number of readings on China’s economy decelerated in July, offering further evidence of a slowdown in the mainland. Retail sales and industrial production rose but were below expectations, while fixed asset investment fell to its slowest rate in more than 16 years. The data sharpens the dilemma facing the nation’s policy makers – boost growth with cheap credit that risks undermining financial stability, or curb debt expansion even if that slows the economy.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“If you want to catch a wave you need to grab a board and get in the water!” — strategist Stan Salvigsen

1. Japan Cabinet Approves $130 Billion In Fiscal Steps As Part Of Stimulus — Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet approved 13.5 trillion yen ($132.04 billion) in fiscal measures as part of efforts to revive the flagging economy. The stimulus package ranks among Japan’s biggest since the global financial crisis, and to increase GDP by 1.4%, include childcare benefits, provide $150 handouts to 22M low income people, loan ¥10.7T for infrastructure and provide ¥7.5T for direct fiscal spending.
2. New Zika Cases Prompt Miami Travel Warning — Federal health officials have advised pregnant women to avoid a Miami neighborhood – marking the first time the CDC has warned against travel to any area within the continental U.S. – as a Zika outbreak led to 10 more local cases. CDC Director Tom Frieden said that extensive spraying of insecticides in the area over the past several weeks has not reduced the local population of mosquitoes capable of transmitting the virus.
3. BOE Cuts Key Rate For The First Time In Over Seven Years to 0.25% — the central Bank Of England has made its biggest quarterly downgrade of growth forecasts, reducing expectations for 2017 growth from 2.3 percent to 0.8 percent, citing “substantial uncertainty” after the referendum on the U.K.’s membership of the European Union (EU) in June. The bank also slashed growth forecasts and launched a new monetary policy weapon in the battle to stop a post-Brexit slump in the U.K.
4. US Created 255,000 Jobs In July vs. 180,000 Jobs Expected — the economy added 255,000 positions, according to the Labor Department. The headline unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent, though a more encompassing measure that includes those not actively looking for work and those working part-time for economic reasons moved up a notch to 9.7 percent. Economists had been looking for an increase of 180,000 and a decline of the unemployment rate to 4.8 percent.
5. S&P 500 Index Traded To New All-Time Highs — chart below shows the index breaking out to the upside of a reverse head-and-shoulders bottoming formation. In the process it has traced out a bullish “flag” formation in the charts.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

..“It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urgings of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind.”… Jesse Livermore

1. Oil Makes A Series of Lower Highs & Lower Lows So Far This Summer — the commodity has been under steady pressure, with a series of lower highs and lower lows since making its high in May. Normally, prices tend to rally in the early months of the year, then peak and level off around Memorial Day, before a late-year decline post Labor Day. Chart is courtesy of BIG.

2. Terror Attacks Weigh on Europe’s Travel Companies — a series of terrorist attacks in Europe is driving away tourists at the height of the summer rush, casting a pall over hotel chains, airline companies and luxury retailers that are already grappling with Britain’s vote to leave the EU. Germany was the latest country to get hit by a series of violent incidents over the last weekend, including a suicide bombing and stabbing by two Syrian refugees and a German-Iranian teenager that shot and killed nine people at a mall in Munich.
3. Fed Appears More Willing to Lift Interest Rates In September — the Federal Reserve on last Wed. meeting opened the door a crack to lifting interest rates at its next meeting in September. The statement said “Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished,”. The Fed kept its benchmark fed-funds rate unchanged in a range between 0.25 and 0.5%.
4. Crude Nears Fresh Bear Market — since crude prices hit a year-high above $52 a barrel in June they have slipped almost 20%, leaving them on the cusp of a new bear market. The latest EIA data unexpectedly showed a 1.7M barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories vs. what had been steady declines in previous weeks. “The improvement in oil fundamentals remains fragile and continues to feature large offsetting forces,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note overnight, but predicted oil prices to remain in the $45-$50 range until mid-2017.
5. US Q2 Prelim GDP 1.2% vs 2.6% Expected –U.S. economic growth sputtered this spring—growing a meager 1.2% in the second quarter—with cautious business investment largely offsetting more robust consumer spending. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased at a 4.2 percent rate. That was the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2014. Inventory accumulation by businesses fell $8.1 billion in the second quarter, the first drop since the third quarter of 2011.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not the management of returns. All good portfolio management begins and ends with this premise.” — Benjamin Graham

1. Singapore Confirms Locally Transmitted Zika Cases — Singapore authorities have identified 41 Zika cases that were transmitted locally, and cautioned that they expect to find more. The cases appear to be the largest single beachhead the virus has made in Asia in the current epidemic, which has also been detected in countries like Bangladesh, Malaysia and the Philippines. Also, China added the U.S. to a list of Zika-infected countries, worrying U.S. exporters, who fear they will be required to fumigate containers destined for Chinese ports. Furthermore, the FDA has issued an Emergency Use Authorization for Roche’s (OTCQX:RHHBY) “Lightmix Zika” test, a quick diagnostic check that allows healthcare professionals to quickly detect the virus.
2. Apple Received $14.5B In Illegal Irish Tax Benefits — EU antitrust regulators have ordered Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to pay up to €13B ($14.5B) in taxes to the Irish government after ruling that a special scheme to route profits through the country was illegal state aid. Apple and Ireland said they would appeal the decision.
3. U.S. Banks Log the Most Profitable Quarter Ever — according to figures from SNL Financial and S&P Global Market Intelligence, U.S. banking industry just logged its most profitable quarter ever Despite an increasing regulatory burden and lackluster share performance. Earnings for the three-month period totaled $43.6B, compared to the $43.01B in Q2 of 2015, a 1.4% beat. On a sequential basis, the April-to-June period topped the previous quarter by $4.56B, an 11.7% rise.
4. Job Report – US created 151,000 jobs in August vs. 180,000 jobs expected — Nonfarm payrolls increased just 151,000 for the month as Wall Street economists were expecting the nonfarm payrolls report to show a gain of 180,000 in August, with the unemployment rate ticking down one-tenth to 4.8 percent. Wage growth slowed and the probability of a September hike drops from 27 percent to 12 percent.
5. World Leaders Prepare for G20 Summit — World leaders descended upon Hangzhou for the G20 summit to reaffirm their dedication to global growth. Developing an open financial system, promoting an economic recovery and coordinating monetary policies are among the main topics to be discussed under this year’s theme of “building an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive world economy.”

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: