Archive for April, 2017

Week of Apr 21 2017 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, April 24th, 2017

“A long-term-oriented value investor is a batter in a game where no balls or strikes are called, allowing dozens, even hundreds, of pitches to go by, including many at which other batters would swing. Value investors are students of the game; they learn from every pitch, those at which they swing and those they let pass by. They are not influenced by the way others are performing; they are motivated only by their own results. They have infinite patience and are willing to wait until they are thrown a pitch they can handle – an undervalued investment opportunity. “ — Warren Buffett

1. UK PM’s Theresa May Calls Snap Election — Theresa May has called a snap general election in the U.K., with the vote to be held on June 8. With a 19 point lead in polls over her nearest rivals, it seems to be an opportunity for her Conservative party to gain a sizeable majority as Brexit negotiations get underway.
2. Trump Pushes ‘Buy American, Hire American’ — President Trump was in Kenosha, Wisconsin to sign an order dubbed “Buy American, Hire American” at the headquarters of the Snap-on (NYSE:SNA) tool company. It will direct federal agencies to recommend changes in the H-1B visa program and examine their purchasing systems to more effectively favor buying American goods.
3. Baidu to “Open Source” Self-Driving Technology — Baidu hopes to get autonomous vehicle companies to share a common platform, Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) will share its self-driving technology, while partnering in the sourcing of components and hardware. The project, named Apollo after the lunar landing program, will launch for the restricted environment in July before gradually introducing capabilities on city roads by 2020.
4. Hearing Scheduled on April 26 for Dodd-Frank Overhaul — representative Jeb Hensarling has unveiled a GOP-crafted plan to replace Dodd-Frank and will hold a hearing to discuss the updated version of the Financial CHOICE Act on April 26. The 600-page bill is targeting a “pro-growth, pro-consumer” alternative that would end “too-big-to-fail” bailouts, bring significant reforms to the CFPB, and provide some regulatory relief for certain financial institutions.
5. U.S. Soda Sales Drop Again — with consumers choosing healthier options and a slew of sugar taxes, U.S. soda and energy drink sales decreased about 1.2% in 2016, falling for the 12th year in a row, according to trade publication Beverage Digest. However, total sales dollars increased 2% to $80.6B as soft drink makers pushed smaller packs at higher prices per ounce, while lowering emphasis on large discounts packs. Companies effected are: KO, PEP, DPS, MNST, FIZZ.
6. AAII Bullish Market Sentiment Declined Again — according to the weekly AAII survey, bullish sentiment declined to 25.71% from 28.97%. That’s the lowest weekly print since the election and a record 120th straight week of sub-50% readings. Looking at the chart below, bullish sentiment has clearly broken its string of higher highs that had been in place since mid-2016.

Also, bearish sentiment has seen a small uptick, rising from 37.38% up to 38.70%.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Apr 14 2017 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, April 17th, 2017

“The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” – Jesse Livermore

1. FOMC Chairwoman Yellen Latest Statement On Economy – It’s ‘Pretty healthy’ and Doesn’t Need Fed’s Help — the economy’s doing pretty well and doesn’t necessarily need a step on the accelerator from the Fed, Chairwoman Janet Yellen says, but the “neutral” ending spot for short-term interest rates is “pretty low.” On a recent speech at the University of Michigan, she didn’t tip the Fed’s approach either way, but characterized the central bank as near its twin goals of full employment and inflation control.
2. China Investigates Top Insurance Regulator — the anti-corruption crackdown in China rose to a new level over the weekend after the head of China’s insurance regulator fell into the spotlight. China Insurance Regulatory Commission leader Xiang Junbo was charged with serious disciplinary violations, a phrasing typically associated with graft. Xaing has led the insurance regulator since 2011 and has been vocal about finding “financial crocodiles” while on the job.
3. China’s Export Outlook Beats Expectations, Points to Continued Strength — China’s 2017 export outlook brightened after the government reported better than expected trade growth for March and as U.S. President Trump suddenly declared China is not a currency manipulator. China’s exports rose at the fastest pace in more than two years in March, up 16.4% Y/Y, while import growth remained strong at 20.2%; the country’s crude oil imports hit a record high of nearly 9.2M bbl/day. Analysts said the stronger trade data reinforces the growing view that economic activity in China has remained resilient and that global manufacturing is improving.
4. IEA Cuts Oil outlook for 2017 Demand Growth, Sees Second Straight Annual Drop — the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for 2017 global oil demand growth to 1.3M bbl/day in its latest monthly market report, with growth expected to slow in 2017 for second year in a row. OPEC’s oil production fell by 365K bbl/day in March, bringing the cartel’s compliance to its supply commitments to 99% and likely smoothing talks as members begin to consider the prospect of extending production cuts. Meanwhile, the IEA says production in the U.S. rose to 9M bbl/day in March from a trough of 8.6M bbl/day last September.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Apr 7 2017 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, April 10th, 2017

“I measure what’s going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.” – Martin Zweig

1. Q1 2017 Performance Summary — courtesy of BIG, as shown in the sector performance chart below, Technology did most of the heavy lifting this quarter with a rally of 12.4%, or more than double the S&P 500’s gains. Behind Technology, Consumer Discretionary rallied 8.2%, while Health Care gained 8%. On the downside, the only two sectors that were down on the quarter were Energy (-7.2%) and Telecom Services (-4.8%). Besides these two sectors, others that underperformed during Q1 were Financials, Real Estate, Industrials, and Materials.

2. US Trade Deficit Drops Sharply to $43.6 Billion in February — the Commerce Department reported the deficit fell to $43.6 billion in February, 9.6 per cent below January’s deficit of $48.2 billion. Imports dropped 1.8 per cent to $236.4 billion as the flow of Chinese goods tumbled by $8.6 billion, led by a big drop in cellphone imports.
3. Payless ShoeSource Files for Bankruptcy — Payless ShoeSource has filed for bankruptcy, marking the 10th filing by a national retail chain this year. As part of its restructuring, the company will close nearly 400 stores as it attempts to boost its balance sheet and restructure its debt load. Chains that compete with Payless include DSW (NYSE:DSW) and Caleres (NYSE:CAL).
4. Trump Rattles Putin With Strikes on Syria, Escalating Civil War — U.S. President Donald Trump bombed the Russia-backed forces of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad for the first time, escalating a six-year civil war and heightening tensions between the world’s two nuclear superpowers. Trump ordered the launching of dozens of cruise missiles from U.S. warships after accusing Assad’s regime of killing scores of civilians with poison gas. What started as a Syrian crackdown on protests in Damascus has morphed into a conflict involving the U.S., Russia, Iran and Turkey, as well as multiple extremist groups and militias backed by regional powers such as Saudi Arabia.
5. AAII weekly Market sentiment — according to the weekly sentiment survey from AAII, only 28.3% of individual investors considered themselves bullish in the last week. That’s down from an already low reading of 30.2% last week, and it’s the lowest weekly reading seen since before the election. This week’s decline also extends the record streak of consecutive weekly readings where bullish sentiment was below 50% to 118.

Bearish sentiment rose to just under 40% this week (39.6%), marking the fourth week in the last five where bears have outnumbered bulls.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Mar 31 2017 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Tuesday, April 4th, 2017

“When I get hurt in the market, I get the hell out. It doesn’t matter at all where the market is trading. I just get out, because I believe that once you’re hurt in the market, your decisions are going to be far less objective than they are when you’re doing well… If you stick around when the market is severely against you, sooner or later they are going to carry you out.” – Randy McKay

1. OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Producers Meeting in Kuwait Agreed to Evaluate Six More Months of Oil Output Cuts — a joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers has agreed to evaluate whether a global pact to limit supplies should be extended by six months. At a meeting in Kuwait, the committee requested a technical group and the OPEC Secretariat “review the oil market conditions and revert… in April, 2017 regarding the extension of the voluntary production adjustments.”
2. Comcast to Expand Streaming Service — Comcast is planning to rebrand and expand a streaming video option for broadband subscribers who do not want to pay for a traditional cable package. The service, dubbed Xfinity Instant TV, will be priced as low as $15 a month to roughly $40 a month, sources told Reuters. Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) will include major broadcast networks as well as add-on options.
3. Brexit Process Set to Begin — British’s PM Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty with a hand-delivered letter to EU President Donald Tusk. That process set the stage for two years of landmark negotiations, including trade, immigration and the future of Britain’s $2.6T economy. While the Brexit decision last summer came as a surprise and rocked markets, stocks quickly recovered and have since notched record highs.
4. Trump “Border Wall” Extend the Bids Process Until April 4, 2017 — companies looking to build President Trump’s border wall will now have until April 4 to submit offers after the DHS extended deadline. Almost 700 businesses have already placed bids, including U.S. Concrete (NASDAQ:USCR), KBR, Martin Marietta (NYSE:MLM) and Fluor (NYSE:FLR). The wall must be at least 18 feet high, can’t be climbed, prevents digging below it for at least six feet and has a U.S.-facing side that is “aesthetically pleasing.”
5. BlackRock Stock-Picking Goes High-Tech — the evolution of stock picking has taken a toll on jobs and fees at BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) after the world’s biggest money manager said it will increasingly rely on data-mining technology to make investment decisions. Over forty staff will be laid off, including some portfolio managers. The revamp marks BlackRock’s biggest attempt to rejuvenate its actively managed equities business as investors shift to ETFs.
6. U.S. 4Q GDP Revised Upward to 2.1% on Consumption — the U.S. economy grew 2.1% in the fourth quarter versus estimated for 2%. The data reinforce the underlying story of the U.S. economy: the seven-year expansion continues to be led by consumers, who are cushioned by a firm labor market and rising confidence. At the same time, rising corporate profits could provide continued momentum for hiring and support further capital investment.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Search
Calendar
April 2017
M T W T F S S
« Mar   May »
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
Archives
Categories
The information provided by The EGS Blog is based on sources believed to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed to be accurate. There is no guarantee that the recommendations of The EGS Blog will be profitable or will not be subject to losses. The information provided by The EGS Blog is not a recommendation or a solicitation that any particular investor should purchase or sell any particular security in any amount, or at all. The investments discussed or recommended herein may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. At any time EGS LLC and its principals may maintain positions that are contrary to positions announced within the subscription service. In no event will The EGS Blog be liable to you or anyone else for any incidental, consequential, special, or indirect damage (including but not limited to lost profits or trading losses). PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS

© Copyright 2024 Market Outlook All Rights Reserved
Design by EGS Sponsored by Equity Guidance LLC