“Always something new, always something I didn’t expect, and sometimes it isn’t horrible.” – Robert Jordan

1. U.S. LNG Deliveries to Germany by 2022 — U.S. companies expect to begin delivering LNG to Germany in four years at the latest, according to deputy U.S. energy secretary Dan Brouillette, and will challenge Russia which now accounts for 60% of German gas imports. In July, President Trump accused Germany of being a “captive” of Russia due to its energy reliance and urged it to halt work on the $11B, Russian-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
2. Aurora Cannabis(OTCQX:ACBFF) on talks with Coca-Cola on CBD drinks — Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) said it was closely watching the fast-growing marijuana drinks market for a possible entry. Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) has already announced a joint venture with Hydropothecary to develop cannabis drinks, while Diageo (NYSE:DEO) is in talks with at least three Canadian cannabis producers about a possible deal.
3. SEC subpoenas Goldman, Silver Lake in Tesla probe — the tension continues to build at Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as a DOJ probe runs alongside a wide-ranging SEC investigation. Subpoenas have already been received by Goldman Sachs and Silver Lake, the two firms hired by Tesla to help the company explore Elon Musk’s go-private plan.
4. US/China Tarriff Escalate — President Trump ordered another $200 billion in 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, which could rise to 25% by year end. China retaliated with $60 billion in tariffs at 5% to 10% and Trump threatened $267 billion more.
5. AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment — in the latest survey of individual investor sentiment from AAII, bullish sentiment declined (ever so slightly) for the third straight week, dropping from 32.09% down to 32.04%.

Meanwhile, bearish sentiment came in at the exact same level as bullish sentiment this week, dropping from 32.84% down to 32.04%. The last time both gauges of sentiment were at the exact same level was in June 2016.

6. Dow Theory Generates Buy Signal for the Dow Theorist Followers — this occurs when the Dow Industrials sets a new high following a new high for Dow Transports. This happened over the last two weeks as industrials set their high on September 21 following transports on September 14. This signal did not work in 2008 as Dow Transports was the last average to peak when it topped out in May 2008 while Dow Industrials peaked in October 2007.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” Warren Buffett

1. Trump Says Apple Should Shift Production to U.S. to Avoid China Tariffs — President Trump tweeted that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) should make more of its products in the U.S. if it wants to avoid tariffs on Chinese imports. In the filing, Apple said the new proposed tariffs would affect prices for a “wide range” of products, including the Watch, AirPods headphones and Beats headphones. China has warned it will match any U.S. tariffs.
2. Trump Readies New Tariffs on Chinese Imports — the Trump administration reportedly set to announce a new round of tariffs on as much as $200B in Chinese goods, while Beijing considers scrapping upcoming trade talks in response. The duties will be set at 10%, below the 25% level announced in early August, to diminish the impact on U.S. consumers ahead of the holiday shopping season and before midterm elections. Global shares are edging down on the news, while the Shanghai Composite closed at its lowest level since 2014. former finance minister Lou Jiwei told a forum, besides retaliating with tariffs, China could also restrict export of goods, raw materials and components core to U.S. manufacturing supply chains.
3. EPA Set to Ease Rules On Methane Leaks for Oil and Gas Companies — the Environmental Protection Agency will reportedly announce a rollback of Obama-era methane emission rules. The EPA proposal wants to give oil and gas companies more time to assess and safely repair infrastructure that’s often found in remote areas. The changes would give drillers a year to perform leak inspections and 60 days to make repairs, double the current time frames.
4. Apple’s iPhone Launch — AAPL unveiled its biggest and most expensive iPhone at its fall launch event, with most of the buzz swirling around a rumored phablet (iPhone Xs Max?) that’s supposed to boast a 6.5-inch OLED screen. Two other models will likely be called the iPhone Xs (5.8-inch OLED) and Xr (6.1-inch LCD). the iPhone XR starting at $749, iPhone Xs starting at $999 and iPhone Xs Max starting at $1,099. More products anticipated include the Watch Series 4, third-gen iPad Pro, budget MacBook, and updated AirPods with a long-delayed charging mat.
5. More Strikes Entertainment Deals — Twitter has struck a host of new media partnerships, bringing “hundreds of hours” of entertainment to audiences in the Asia Pacific region. The deal includes game highlights from the UEFA Champions League, live-streaming from Formula One and live Red Carpet events. Twitter (TWTR) has seen double-digit audience growth in Asia Pacific and is “projecting by about 2020, we’ll be at about a billion views here in (Asia Pacific) alone.”
6. Gas explosions near Boston — NiSource’s (NYSE:NI) Columbia Gas explosions killed at least one person, injured 12 more and forced thousands to evacuate from three communities north of Boston. Some 70 fires, explosions or investigations of gas odor were reported, according to Massachusetts State Police. NiSource’s (NYSE:NI) Columbia Gas unit had said earlier that it would be upgrading gas lines in neighborhoods across the state.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.” — Paul Tudor Jones

1. EU Open to More U.S. Beef Imports — the EU is willing to start talks with Washington on increasing U.S. beef imports, a move aimed at cementing a trade truce agreed upon in July. The bloc already upped its U.S. soybean imports, which rose 283% Y/Y in July, bringing the EU’s total American soybean share to 37%, up from 9% a year ago. Both agricultural products have been hit by retaliatory tariffs from China and Mexico, with U.S. beef producers forced to stockpile meat in cold storage facilities.
2. China Warns of Retaliation Over New U.S. Tariffs — according to the country’s commerce ministry “If the U.S., regardless of opposition, adopts any new tariff measures, China will be forced to roll out necessary retaliatory measures,” . Due to China’s massive trade surplus over the U.S., many expect the nation could further devalue its currency or crack down on U.S. firms inside the country. The Trump administration is reportedly ready to move ahead with a next round of tariffs .
3. Emerging-Market Stocks Hover Near Bear Territory — Emerging markets were teetering on the verge of bear territory last week as a rising dollar and higher U.S. interest rates are siphoning money from the developing world and making their debts more expensive. The gauge of 24 emerging-market countries has now dropped by a fifth since its January high after steep falls in the Turkish and Argentine currencies sparked a wider selloff. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 24% from its peak in January, while the yuan is down around 6% since June. The recent bout of selling was partly triggered last month by sharp declines in the Turkish lira, which is down by more than 40% this year, and later the Argentine peso, which has fallen 51%. Elsewhere, the Indian rupee reached its weakest-ever levels this week, and the Indonesian rupiah is trading around two-decade lows.
4. Goldman Sachs Is Said to Cool to Crypto-Trading as Bitcoin Runs Cold — Crypto prices continue to tumble following a Business Insider report that stated Goldman Sachs was dropping plans to open a trading desk for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is down about 12% over the last 24 hours to a low of $6,279. The alts posted far worse during that time, with the price of Ethereum (ETH-USD) tumbling by 20%, Ripple (XRP-USD) dropping by 14% and Bitcoin Cash (BCH-USD) falling 19%.
5. Ebola Outbreak Spreading in Congo — Congo has confirmed its first Ebola death in the eastern city of Butembo, the first urban outbreak of the virus. The current wave has already killed 89 people and it’s close to becoming the eighth largest Ebola outbreak in history. A vaccination campaign has already been underway for weeks, with experimental treatments from companies like Merck (NYSE:MRK) and Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD).

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“The core problem, however, is the need to fit markets into a style of trading rather than finding ways to trade that fit with market behavior.” – Brett Steenbarger

1. U.S., Canada Set for High-Stakes Trade Talks Under Cloud of White House Threat — Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland traveled to Washington to continue trade negotiations. “We’ll give them a chance to have a separate deal, or we could put it into this,” President Trump declared, adding that the “simplest deal is more or less already made. White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC “We may have to resort to auto tariffs if the U.S. and Canada can’t reach a fair deal,”.
2. Apple to Take iPhone X Design to New Phones — Apple plans to unveil three new phones using the edge-to-edge screen design of the iPhone X, sources told Bloomberg. The new “S year” devices, expected to be unveiled at Apple’s product event in September, will include updated features and cover a broader range of prices, colors and sizes. One will even include a 6.5-inch display, the largest Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has ever included on an iPhone.
3. U.S. to Pay Farmers $4.7 Billion to Offset Trade-Conflict Losses — the Trump administration pledged to pay farmers $4.7 billion to offset losses from trade disputes with foreign buyers of U.S. agricultural products. The payments would help protect farmers from “unjustified tariffs” some nations have applied in response to President Trump’s trade policies. China, Mexico, the European Union and other trade partners have levied tariffs on U.S. farm goods from soybeans to pork to apples, leaving growers vulnerable during a downturn in the agricultural economy. Soybean farmers are in line to get roughly three-fourths of the direct payments, or $3.6 billion, followed by producers of pork, cotton, sorghum, dairy and wheat.
4. India Set for Record Oil Demand Growth — India is set to overtake China as the biggest source of growth for oil demand by 2024, according to a forecast by Wood Mackenzie. The country’s expanding middle class will be a key factor, as well as its growing need for mobility. On the other hand, China – which overtook the U.S. as the biggest importer of crude oil in 2017 – is set to see a decline due to two trends: Alternative energy sources and a more efficient freight system.
5. Fresh Stress for Emerging Market Currencies — Argentina’s peso tanked 7.5% against the dollar late last week, bringing losses to nearly 50% over the past year, after President Macri asked the IMF to speed up delivery of a $50B bailout package. In response to the suffering peso, other fragile emerging market currencies sold off sharply overnight, with Turkey’s lira and the South African rand feeling heat, and India’s rupee slumping to a new record low. The tumult highlights a heavy international dependence on the dollar. Some 48% of the world’s $30T in cross-border loans are priced in the U.S. currency, up from 40% a decade ago.
6. Moody’s Lowers Rating on Ford — Moody’s has lowered Ford’s (NYSE:F) credit rating to one notch above junk bond status, and warned of further downgrades if it doesn’t make “clear progress” on its $11B turnaround plan. The second-largest U.S. auto manufacturer is faces weakening profit margins in North America, a retrenching business in China, and losses in South America and Europe.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: