Archive for May, 2010

Berkshire Hathaway – 1Q2010 Update (As of Mar31, 2010)

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

Based on the latest update as of March 31st, 2010 of Berkshire Hathaway, below lists his top holdings and the most recent update on his positions:

These positions may represent a buying opportunity as this market correction has made these stocks substantially cheaper. The research and blessing of Berkshire Hathaway takes away the majority of the risk.

TOP 15 HOLDINGS — As of Mar 31st, 2010 ($50.9 Billions)

Company Name Symbol Percent Comments
Coca Cola KO 21.6 No Change
Wells Fargo WFC 19.56 No Change
American Express AXP 12.28 No Change
Proctor & Gamble PG 9.83 Sold 8,406,627 shares during first quarter, reducing stake by 9.6 percent.  Berkshire had sold 8,812,599 shares (-9.1%) during the fourth quarter
Kraft food KFT 6.34 Reduced by 22.8%
Wesco Financial WSC 4.32
Walmart WMT 4.26 No Change
US Bankcorp USB 3.51 No Change
Conoco Phillips COP 3.43 Sold 3,532,081 shares during first quarter, reducing stake by 9.4 percent.  Berkshire had cut its holdings by 19.7 million shares (-34.3%) during the fourth quarter.
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 3.06 Sold 3,241,019 shares during first quarter, reducing stake by 11.9 percent.  Berkshire had cut its holdings by 9,782,166 shares (-26.5%) during the fourth quarter
Moody MCO 1.8 Sold 1,030,734 shares during first quarter, reducing stake by 3.2 percent, as previously reported.  Berkshire had cut its stake by 7,404,702 shares (-18.9%) during the fourth quarter
Washington Post WPO 1.51 No Change
Nike NKE 1.1 No Change
M&T Bank MTB 0.87 Sold 1,151,779 shares during first quarter, reducing stake by 17.2 percent.  No sales during fourth quarter
Republic Services RSG 0.62 Bought 2,537,200 shares during first quarter, increasing stake by 30.6 percent.  Berkshire had bought 4,665,500 shares (+128.7%) during the fourth quarter

Positions Berkshire Has Sold Out of Completely – Positions to avoid
SunTrust Bank STI
Travelers TRV
UnitedHealth UNH
Wellpoint WLP

Reduced Positions
Gannett GCI Reduced by 20.98%
Costco COST Reduced by 17.5%
CarMax KMX Reduced by 3.43%
Moody’s (MCO): Reduced by 3% (we detailed these sales back when they occurred)

Other Positions With No Change
Bank of America BAC
Comcast CMCSA
Comdisco Holdings CDCO.OB
Exxon Mobil XOM
General Electric GE
GlaxoSmithKline GSK
Home Depot HD
Ingersoll-Rand IR
Lowe’s LOW
Nalco Holding NLC
Nestle NSRGY.PK
Sanofi Aventis SNY
Tiffany & Co TIF
Torchmark TMK
USG USG
United Parcel Service UPS

Fri May 14 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Friday, May 14th, 2010

The major indices continued to sell-off after a quick bounce back, based on news of EU TARP-like bailouts. At this juncture, we continue to remain cautious, as we believe the selling is not yet over. Below are the major events which occurred this week.
1. UK – David Cameron won the election and the Conservative replaced the Labour Party.
2. The Chinese market now officially in Bear Market territory (correction of more than 20%); Recent figures point to inflation and manufacturing slowdown;
3. EU/IMF announced a US TARP-like bailout to the tune of $1 trillion dollars; The ECB/IMF will buy EU countries’s government Bonds if needed; It was reported that the French President Sarkozy threatened to pull-out of the EU if the Germans did not support Greece bailout.
4. Portugal & Spain announced their own austerity measures to prevent a Greece-like catastrophy.
5. Gold hits new high at $1,248 an ounce.
6. NY Attorney General to investigate the major investment banks for misleading CDO’s practices.
7. US Government also announced its own investigation into Morgan Stanley over Mortgage Derivative Products; Goldman Sachs is already under  government scrutiny.
8. The Senate Finance Committee to investigate Home healthcare company practices of overbilling Medicare — related companies effected were (AFAM, GTIV, AMED, LHGC…)

Here are the major events for the next week:
1. 5/18 — PPI (Producer Price Index)
2. 5/19 — CPI (Consumer Price Index)
3. — Greece $8Bil Redemption

Attached is an interesting chart from the European Commission about the PIIGS countries’s public debts.

IDCC – Stock Research

Tuesday, May 11th, 2010

Below is a stock with good fundamentals:

InterDigital,Inc.(IDCC) looks appealing at the current multiple:
This near $27. stock has $11 per share in cash and short term investments. InterDigital’ s revenue increased (ttm vs prior ttm) 41.2%. Revenue for the 3/10 quarter was $116.m. The sales increase was due to higher recurring patent licensing royalties. Lower selling, general & administrative expenses contributed to higher earnings in the March 10 quarter.
Growth Rate:
YEAR REVENUE E.P.S.
2008 act. 228.5m 0.57
2009 act. 303.8m 1.73
2010 est. 363.0m 3.20
For the trailing 4 quarters, ending 3/10, the return on equity is 93.6%. The debt to capital ratio at 3/10 is 2.4%.
IDCC is positioned nicely in the shift from 2G to 3G tele-communications. They have already established a strong licensing position for LTE (read conference call 4/29/10). In addition, they have over 50% of the emerging cellular machine to machine market under license.
In summary: IDCC’s low debt, high return on capital, good annual earnings growth, low P.E. ratio of 8.6 and considering that 40% of the stocks selling price is in cash and short term investments, we believe it warrants consideration when the technicals are right.
J. Passalacqua

Possible buy around $25.30 price range.

Fri May 7 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Friday, May 7th, 2010

The major indexes (US & Abroad) sold-off this week based on fear of Greece “Contagion” spinning out of control.
We believe the sell-offs have not finished and are “watching” the market for a possible entry point.
Other negative events that occurred this week:
1. China raised rates to clamp down on real estate prices and manufacturing slowed.
2. Greek parliament voted through the auterity measure; Riots broke out that resulted in the death of 3 bankers. The Greek market continued selling pick up momentum as the ECB refused to buy Greek Bonds;
3. Gulf of Mexico oil spill worsened — Congress talked about raising the cap on damages.
4. EU at risk from the Greece “Contagion” — costs to insure Portugal & Spain spiked higher this week as the EUR hits 1-year low vs USD. This problem seems to resemble the Lehman problem that led to its insolvency in the fall of 2008;
5. VIX spiked upward — spiked to 42 from the low of 15.5 (as noted on April 16 Blog)
6. Australia imposed a “profit” tax of 40% to “resource” companies
7. UK election resulted in a Conservative win with a majority of the votes.
8. NASDAQ corrected 10%+ for the week (from the high on Apr 23).

Next Week
1. G-7 conference call announcement about the “Greece Contagion”

Below is the chart of the S&P500; We are expecting a re-test of 1,095 next week.

EU – Greece Problem Update

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

As expected, the EU/IMF approved Greece’s bailout package to the tune of over $140 billion. However, the problem now has spread to Portugal & Spain as costs to insure Portugal & Spain spiked upward.

The New York Times posted a nice chart detailing the contagion with the PIIGS countries.

Fri Apr 30 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, May 3rd, 2010

The market dropped sharply the week of Apr 30, 2010 due to the following:
1. GS is now under criminal investigation; This further compounds their problem (civil fraud charge) by the SEC. GS possible buy around $110 area;
2. Oil spill spreads to the fishing ground and wildlife areas of the Gulf of Mexico; BP, RIG & CAM sold-offs; (Similar to the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska – 1989); See WSJ comparison
3. Greece awaiting bailout package by May 3rd, 2010; The amount exceeds $100 billion; Next, Portugal’s debt is coming due and Spain’s unemployment exceeds 20%; An indepth and detailed report from Weldon Research regarding Greece, Portugal & Spain.
4. Unemployment assistance phases out at the 99-week limit ;
5. Home Buyer Tax Credit expires Apr 30, 2010
6. Investor Bullishness hits high

For the following ahead,
1. Berkshire annual meeting on Weekend of May 1 & 2.
2. Mon, May 3 — Greece bailout expected by the EU/IMF
3. Tues, May 4 — factory orders

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