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Week of Feb 16 2018 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

February 19th, 2018

“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.” Paul Tudor Jones

1. OxyContin Maker Stops Promoting Opioids — OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma is stopping to promote the drug and other opioids to doctors amid a series of state and municipal lawsuits that blame the company for contributing to the opioid epidemic. It will also cut its U.S. sales force by more than 50%, to about 200 people, while remaining representatives “will no longer be visiting offices to engage in discussions about opioid products.”
2. ‘5G.Connected’ Debuts at Olympics — attendees of the Winter Olympic games in Pyeongchang are experiencing the future of wireless technology. The “5G.Connected” showcase, engineered by KT Corp. (NYSE:KT), uses technology from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) and Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF), for the world’s first broad-scale 5G network. At 10 gigabits a second, it’s about 100 times faster than 4G.
3. Trump To Endorse $0.25/gallon Gasoline Tax Hike — Pres. Trump stated late last week that he would support a $0.25/gallon increase in federal gasoline and diesel taxes to help pay for upgrading U.S. roads, bridges and other public works. The government has not raised the gas tax since 1993, under the Clinton administration. The current federal levy is 18.4 cents a gallon on retail gasoline and 24.4 cents for a gallon of diesel.
4. Big Investor Moves in Latest 4Q 13-F filings — Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) reported a new fourth quarter stake in Teva (NYSE:TEVA), and bought more shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which surpassed Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) as its largest common stock investment. Dan Loeb’s Third Point took a 2M share stake in Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), while David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital showed several new big retailer holdings in J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS) and Under Armour (NYSE:UAA).
5. Senate Blocks Immigration Plans – the Senate blocked four immigration-related proposals late last week, including a bipartisan plan that would have provided $25B for border security and a path to citizenship for 1.8M young, undocumented immigrants. A separate measure that lost by a large margin would’ve ended a diversity visa lottery program and imposed strict limits on family-based migration.
6. Latest Weekly AAII Sentiment — In this week’s survey, bullish sentiment increased from 37.0% up to 48.5% for a gain of 11.5 percentage points. That’s the largest weekly increase since last September.

Bearish sentiment plunged from 35.0% down to 21.4%. That’s the largest weekly decline in two years!

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Feb 10 2018 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

February 12th, 2018

“But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.’” – Warren Buffett

1. The SEC and CFTC Plan to Ask Congress for Federal Oversight of Digital-Currency & Credit Card Ban on Buying Crypto-currencies — worries over a global regulatory clampdown led bitcoin – which is still trading below $8,000 – last week to record its biggest weekly loss since December 2013. Lloyds (NYSE:LYG) is barring its credit card customers from buying bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. It follows similar moves by U.S. rivals JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), BofA (NYSE:BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C), which all announced similar bans on crypto purchases via credit cards. In addition, the SEC and CFTC plan to ask Congress to consider federal oversight for digital-currency trading platforms, many of which have been operating in a regulatory gray zone.
2. Steve Wynn Steps Down as Wynn Resorts Chairman, CEO — Steve Wynn has resigned as CEO and Chairman of Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that surfaced in recent weeks. “I have reached the conclusion I cannot continue to be effective in my current roles,” he declared. The company has named current President Matt Maddox as its new CEO and Boone Wayson as Non-Executive Chairman.
3. CBOE Announced No major Impact from VIX products’ Demise — CBOE Global Markets does not expect any significant impact on trading volumes at the exchange following the collapse of two popular exchange-traded products (ETPs) that let traders bet that volatility will fall. The Chicago exchange addressed analysts’ questions after markets closed late last week, following an almost 15% decline in CBOE’s share price in the last three days.
4. Gun Maker Remington Seeks Financing for Bankruptcy Filing — one of the biggest U.S. gun manufacturers is taking steps toward filing for bankruptcy, according to Reuters. Remington has “reached out to banks and credit investment funds” in search of “debtor-in-possession financing” that would let the company continue operations once it went bankrupt.
5. Congress Ends Brief Government Shutdown – Just hours after the government stumbled into another shutdown, Congress passed a budget agreement early Friday that would extend the current level of federal funding until March 23. The bill would also bump limits on defense and non-defense spending by about $300B over the next two years.
6. Stock-market Correction Looks a lot like 1996-1997 — according to Jeff deGraaf of Reinaissance Macro Research, the current market trend for the past 12-month shows similar pattern from the 1996-1997. Noted ““Today’s price action is weaker over a shorter period of time than that of ‘96, and then, as we suspect happens today, the market needed a few weeks to convalesce before resuming its uptrend. When we aggregate the price paths of the top 25 correlations with today, the picture suggests a pause of a few weeks and resumption of trend,”. See the chart below.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Feb 3 2018 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

February 5th, 2018

“My attitude is that I always want to be better prepared than someone I’m competing against. The way I prepare myself is by doing my work each night.” — Marty Schwartz

1. President Trump team Considers Nationalizing 5G Network — national security officials in the Trump administration are looking at options where the U.S. government could take over part of the country’s mobile network as a way of guarding against “dominant malicious actor” China. The report from Axios describes two options: The U.S. government pays for and builds the single network – an unprecedented nationalization of private infrastructure – or an alternative where U.S. wireless providers build their own 5G networks, which would be less commercially disruptive to the industry.
2. Amazon, Berkshire, JPMorgan Link Up to Form New Health-Care Company — Amazon (AMZN) rocked the healthcare sector after announcing that it has partnered with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) and Jamie Dimon’s JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) to start a new company to address rising healthcare costs for their U.S. employees, that may potentially be rolled out to all Americans. The new entity will be an independent company that will be “free from profit-making incentives and constraints”. Its initial focus will be on technology solutions that will provide U.S. employees and their families with simplified, high-quality and transparent healthcare at a reasonable cost.
3. Boeing Buys Stake in Battery Technology Start-up — Boeing HorizonX Ventures (NYSE:BA) has taken a minority stake in startup Cuberg, which is seeking to develop next-generation battery technology for potential aerospace and industrial applications. “Battery technology is still heavy,” so you can’t make it for a plane of current commercial aircraft size, Cuberg CEO Richard Wang addressed in a recent interview on CNBC.
4. FOMC Stays On Hold, Expects Further Gradual Hikes — the Federal Reserve held its Fed Funds target range at 1.25-1.5% in its recent meeting as Janet Yellen gets ready to depart the central bank. The economy continues to strengthen, and inflation is expected to move up, according to the policy statement, while the FOMC continues to anticipate further gradual increases in short-term rates. Rate markets have about fully priced in March as the next move.
5. Treasury Yields Spike – 10-year yield surpassing 2.8 percent and the 30-year bond yield rising above 3 percent for the first time in eight months — The S&P 500 Index’s slumped nearly 5% last week after the 10-year Treasury yield popped above 2.85 percent for the first time since January 2014.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Jan 26 2018 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

January 29th, 2018

There will not be any re-cap for the week of Jan 26 208. We are away for some needed R&R.

Have a good week.

The staffs at EGS.

Earnings for the week of Feb 2 2018

Week of Jan 19 2018 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

January 19th, 2018

“By living the philosophy that my winners are always in front of me, it is not so painful to take a loss.” – Marty Schwartz

1. Ford Ups Electrification Investment to $11B — Ford will significantly increase its planned investments in EVs to $11B by 2022 and have 40 hybrid and fully electric vehicles in its model lineup. “We’re taking our mainstream vehicles, our most iconic vehicles, and we’re electrifying them,” Chairman Bill Ford told reporters. Ford (NYSE:F) also showed off its 2019 Ranger, after pulling the midsize pickup off the market in North America eight years ago.
2. China Crackdowns on Crytocurrency – South Korea stating a ban on trading was now “a live option” and China reportedly raising the bar on its cryptocurrency crackdown. Bitcoin dropped eventually tumbling to under $11,000 for the first time since Dec. 6 from the high of nearly $20,000. PBOC Vice Governor Pan Gongsheng says authorities should ban centralized trading of virtual currencies as well as individuals and businesses that provide related services.
3. U.S. Plans New Nuclear Weapons – the Pentagon is planning to develop more “low-yield” nuclear warheads and a sea-based nuclear cruise missile, according to a leaked draft of the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review. It follows reports that Russia has developed an unmanned underwater nuclear drone that has a range of 10,000 kilometers and can carry a 100-megaton nuclear warhead. Companies affected are: BW, HON, ACM, JEC, SAIC, OA, COL, LMT, BA, NOC, GD, AJRD, HII.
4. U.S. Considers ‘fine’ on China for IP Theft — the U.S. is considering a major “fine” as part of a probe into China’s alleged theft of intellectual property. “We’re talking about big damages,” President Trump told Reuters. “We’re talking about numbers that you haven’t even thought about.” American businesses claim to have lost billions of dollars to Chinese firms that force them to turn over intellectual property as part of the price of doing business in the country.
5. US World’s Next Largest Oil Producer According to IEA – the IEA said in the latest monthly report that “2018 promises to be a record-setting one for the U.S.,”. “Relentless growth should see the U.S. hit historic highs above 10M barrels a day [in production], overtaking Saudi Arabia and rivaling Russia during the course of 2018 – provided OPEC and non-OPEC restraints remain in place.”

Majority of company earnings will be announced next week.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Jan 12 2018 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

January 15th, 2018

“If you personalize losses, you can’t trade.” – Bruce Kovner

1. SEC Crypto Crackdown Continues — the SEC continues to crack down on cryptocurrency trading, halting shares of UBI Blockchain Internet (OTCPK:UBIA) through Jan. 22. The regulator cited potentially inaccurate disclosures and unusual market activity. The stock spiked to $87 on Dec. 18 from just $9 on Dec. 11 and has since fallen back to $22.
2. Intel Unveils Self-Driving Car, Security Ipdates at CES – Intel showcased its first self-driving test car at CES, announcing a number of automaker tie-ups and stating Mobileye’s autonomous tech will be used in 2M vehicles. Also, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) said it will form a new cybersecurity group and expects to issue processor updates by the end of January. Also, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) capped its keynote address at this year’s CES by letting an 18-rotor air taxi fly across the stage. That marks the first time the Volocopter VC200, which can cover a distance of 27 kilometers and charges in less than 40 minutes, flew in North America.
3. China Diversifying Forex Reserves — China is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves in order to safeguard their value, according to the country’s currency regulator, while dismissing a Bloomberg report stating the government was halting or reducing its U.S. debt purchases. Chinese officials were said to have recommended the move amid a less attractive market for Treasury bonds and rising U.S.-China trade tensions.
4. S.Korea Plans Trading Ban Cryptocurrency via Exchanges — South Korea is planning to ban cryptocurrency trading via exchanges, according to Justice Minister Park Sang-ki, sending bitcoin prices plummeting and throwing the virtual coin market into turmoil. It’s a major development as the country is one of the biggest markets in the crypto space. The news also follows warning from Warren Buffett that speculation in bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, “will have a bad ending.”
5. S&P Cuts Brazil Rating Deeper into Junk — citing the government’s failure to pass key fiscal reforms, Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Brazil’s credit rating deeper into junk territory, to BB-, or three notches below investment grade. It’s a disappointed move for the administration of President Michel Temer, which has been touting Brazil’s progress in recovering from its worst recession on record.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Jan 5 2018 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

January 8th, 2018

“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.” – Paul Tudor Jones

1. Iran Unrest Lifts Crude Prices — crude oil benchmarks, Brent and WTI, have both started the year above $60 per barrel for the first time since January 2014. “Growing unrest in Iran set the table for a bullish start to 2018,” the U.S.-based Schork Report said in a note to clients. Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC, which agreed last year to extend its oil output cuts through Dec. 31, 2018.
2. China Became Biggest Importer of Natural Gas — Beijing’s crackdown on pollution has put China on track to overtake Japan this year as the world’s biggest importer of natural gas. Already the largest importer of oil and coal, China is the world’s third biggest user of natural gas behind the U.S. and Russia, but has to import around 40% of its total needs as domestic production can’t keep up with demand.
3. Trump to ‘Sharply’ Expand Offshore Drilling, Including Pacific Ocean — looking to boost domestic energy production, the Trump administration has proposed opening nearly all U.S. offshore waters to oil and gas drilling, including in the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific oceans. That would reverse the Obama-era order placing 94% of the Outer Continental Shelf off limits to drillers.
4. Attorney General Sessions to Allow State Attorneys Decide on Federal Pot Enforcement Law — Attorney General Jeff Sessions has rescinded an Obama-era policy that had discouraged prosecutors in states where marijuana was legalized from bringing pot-related charges, unless they involved distribution to minors, revenue sale benefiting gangs and a few other federal priorities. In its place, prosecutors will be given discretion (not guidance) to pursue marijuana-related prosecutions.
5. AAII Weekly Sentiment Survey — According to the weekly sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment increased to 59.75% from 52.65% last week. Not only is this the third straight week where bullish sentiment has been above 50%, but it’s also the second-highest reading in bullish sentiment of the bull market!

Also, Bearish sentiment dropped from 20.63 down to a paltry 15.56%. The only week where bearish sentiment was lower was in November 2014, when it dropped to 15.05%.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Blackstone ’s Byron Wien Ten Surprises for 2018

January 2nd, 2018

courtesy of Blackstone, Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2018.
Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2018 are as follows:

1. China finally decides that a nuclear capability in the hands of an unpredictable leader on its border is not tolerable even though North Korea is a communist buffer between itself and democratic South Korea. China cuts off all fuel and food shipments to North Korea, which agrees to suspend its nuclear development program but not give up its current weapons arsenal.

2. Populism, tribalism and anarchy spread around the world. In the United Kingdom Jeremy Corbyn becomes the next Prime Minister. In spite of repressive action by the Spanish government, Catalonia remains turbulent. Despite the adverse economic consequences of the Brexit vote, the unintended positive consequence is that it brings continental Europe closer together with more economic cooperation and faster growth.

3. The dollar finally comes to life. Real growth exceeds 3% in the United States, which, coupled with the implementation of some components of the Trump pro-business agenda, renews investor interest in owning dollar-denominated assets, and the euro drops to 1.10 and the yen to 120 against the dollar. Repatriation of foreign profits held abroad by U.S. companies helps.

4. The U.S. economy has a better year than 2017, but speculation reaches an extreme and ultimately the S&P 500 has a 10% correction. The index drops toward 2300, partly because of higher interest rates, but ends the year above 3000 since earnings continue to expand and economic growth heads toward 4%.

5. The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude moves above $80. The price rises because of continued world growth and unexpected demand from developing markets, together with disappointing hydraulic fracking production, diminished inventories, OPEC discipline and only modest production increases from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and Iran.

6. Inflation becomes an issue of concern. Continued world GDP growth puts pressure on commodity prices. Tight labor markets in the industrialized countries create wage increases. In the United States, average hourly earnings gains approach 4% and the Consumer Price Index pushes above 3%.

7. With higher inflation, interest rates begin to rise. The Federal Reserve increases short-term rates four times in 2018 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moves toward 4%, but the Fed shrinks its balance sheet only modestly because of the potential impact on the financial markets. High yield spreads widen, causing concern in the equity market.

8. Both NAFTA and the Iran agreement endure in spite of Trump railing against them. Too many American jobs would be lost if NAFTA ended, and our allies universally support continuing the Iran agreement. Trump begins to think that not signing on to the Trans-Pacific Partnership was a mistake as he sees the rise of China’s influence around the world. He presses for more bilateral trade deals in Asia.

9. The Republicans lose control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the November election. Voters feel disappointed that many promises made during Trump’s presidential campaign were not implemented in legislation and there is a growing negative reaction to his endless Tweets. The mid-term election turns out to be a referendum on the Trump Presidency.

10. Xi Jinping, having broadened his authority at the 19th Party Congress in October, focuses on China’s credit problems and decides to limit business borrowing even if it means slowing the economy down and creating fewer jobs. Real GDP growth drops to 5.5%, with only minor implications for world growth. Xi proclaims this move will ensure the sustainability of China’s growth over the long term.

Also-rans:

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten because either I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

11. Investors recognize that the earnings of companies in Europe, the Far East and the emerging markets are growing faster than those in the United States while the price earnings ratios in those regions are lower than those in America. Global investments become more broadly represented in institutional portfolios.

The Mueller investigation of the 2016 presidential election fails to implicate any members of the Trump family in collusion with Russian operatives.

Artificial intelligence gains visible momentum. Service sector jobs are automated, particularly clerks in legal and finance professions, as well as workers in fast food outlets and healthcare. Economists begin to question the unemployment data because the rate drops below 4% while so many people still appear to be out of work and seeking government assistance.

12. Cyberattacks become more prevalent and begin to affect consumer confidence. A major money center bank suspends deposits or withdrawals for three days because its system is penetrated. Numerous retail organizations report that customer personal information has been obtained by hackers. Those invading corporate information systems appear to be smarter and more innovative than the internal employees protecting the computer data, suggesting that the systems themselves need to be upgraded.

13. The regulatory authorities in Europe and the United States finally get concerned about the creative destruction of Internet-related businesses. As a result of pressure from retailers and traditional media companies, they begin an investigation of anti-competitive practices at Amazon, Facebook and Google. The public begins to think these companies have too much power.

14. The risks in Bitcoin are so great that regulatory authorities restrict trading. Among their concerns are: no regulatory oversight; no safety and soundness measures; no recourse in the event of mistaken or miscalculated transactions; high cyber risk; no deposit insurance. (Risk source: Morgan Stanley.)

Week of Dec 29 2017 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

January 2nd, 2018

“The December Low Indicator — Forget all the noise you hear about the January Barometer; pay much more attention to the December low. That would be the lowest closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the month of December. If that low is violated during the first quarter of the New Year, watch out!” – Lucien Hooper

!!!HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!!

1. China Extends Tax Rebate For NEVs (New-Energy Vehicles) — China’s Finance Ministry will extend a tax rebate on purchases of new-energy vehicles from the end of this year until the end of 2020 amid a shift away from the internal combustion engine. The extension comes as automakers in China brace to meet strict quotas starting in 2019 that are sparking launches of NEV models and a flurry of new deals.
2. MasterCard (NYSE:MA) Released Strong Early Christmas Numbers — MasterCard (NYSE:MA) released strong early Christmas numbers. Excluding autos, sales rose 4.9% from Nov. 1 through Christmas Eve, marking the fastest pace since 2011. E-commerce naturally drove the gain, up 18.1%. Helping the figure was Christmas falling on a Monday, giving retailers a full weekend to reel in extra sales.
3. Israel Latest to Crack Down on Bitcoin — Israel has become the latest nation to crack down on cryptocurrencies, proposing regulation to ban companies trading in bitcoin from operating on the Tel Aviv stock exchange. The move follows last week’s warnings by FINRA against firms that “tout the potential of high returns associated with cryptocurrency-related activities,” as well as China’s decision to shutter bitcoin exchanges and ban ICOs in September.
4. Korea Also Crackdown on Cryptocurrency – S Korea eyed new regulations that would include prohibiting anonymous trading accounts and could give authorities the ability to shut down exchanges. The head of the country’s financial regulation agency also told reporters that the “bubble in bitcoin will burst later.” Bitcoin’s plunge comes after futures contracts started trading on CME Group’s exchange, giving investors new ways to bet on the digital coin’s price moves. Furthermore, India’s finance ministry is the latest global regulatory body to caution about the risks of trading in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, saying the investments are like “Ponzi schemes.”

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week of Dec 22 2017 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

December 25th, 2017

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” — Warren Buffett
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year — from the staffs of EGS

1. Chile’s Corfo, SQM Seek Settlement of Lithium Mining Claims — Corfo and Pampa Calichera, a Chilean development agency that controls Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (NYSE:SQM) stated that it had agreed to suspend its arbitration battle with SQM for 30 days as they try to solve a dispute over lithium mining claims. Chile will be able to expand its lithium production “significantly” if the negotiations are successful.
2. China Looks to Curb Greenhouse Emissions — China is planning to start a giant market to trade credits for the right to emit greenhouse gases. The program would initially cover the nation’s state-dominated power generation sector, which produced almost half of the country’s emissions from burning fossil fuels last year.
3. AAII Weekly Sentiment Survey — the weekly sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that bullish sentiment increased from 45.0 up to 50.5%. That’s the first 50%+ reading since the first week of 2015! That streak of 154 weeks without a 50%+ reading was the longest in the history of the survey!

4. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Passed by Congress and Signed into Law by President Donald Trump — the new tax law will be a mixed bag of give-and-take for individual taxpayers, with benefits sharply skewed to the wealthy. The main component, the top corporate tax rate will drop from 35%—one of the highest top rates levied by developed nations—to 21% in 2018. Most taxpayers will see their tax burdens decline and their after-tax income rise in 2019, after the new law is fully in effect.
5. Congress Passes Stopgap Spending Bill – Congress has passed a stopgap spending bill that keeps the government funded through mid-January, punting thorny policy debates into next year. The most contentious part of the bill is what’s called a “pay-go” waiver. The provision suspends rules that bar the government from enacting expensive new programs, like the GOP tax cuts, unless there is enough money in the current year’s budget to pay for them.
6. Wall Street Strategists’ Forecast Year-End Price Targets — according to Bloomberg, the consensus S&P 500 price target for the end of 2018 stands at 2,854. That would represent a 2018 gain of roughly 6%.
Below is a chart showing consensus year-end price targets for the S&P 500 for every year going back to 2000. For each year, we show where Wall Street strategists saw the S&P 500 trading at the end of the year, the estimated annual percentage change based on the price target, and the actual percentage change that the S&P 500 experienced that year.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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