“It’s not a stock market; it’s a market of stocks” — unknown

1. Broad Pickup in Prices Lifts Inflation to 3.7% in September — the consumer price index rose 0.6% from a month earlier, driven by a surge in fuel costs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. A key measure of underlying price pressures, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3%. The Fed in September responded to renewed price pressures by raising interest rates for the first time since 2023. Since then, top officials have signaled they have time to weigh incoming data before acting again, though the median forecast of officials lined up with one more increase this year, according to their latest projections. The report, which showed the CPI advanced 3.7% from a year earlier and core CPI rose 2.6%, is the last reading on consumer prices before the central bank’s Oct. 27-28 policy meeting.
2. US Producer Prices Up Most Since 2022 as Energy Pain Worsens — The producer price index advanced 1.3% from a month earlier — the most since March 2022 — and 6.3% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Thursday. Excluding food and energy, the gauge was up 0.7% last month and 5% from a year ago. Both came in above all estimates in a Bloomberg survey. A key question for policymakers is whether the energy shock is starting to spill into the prices of other goods and services. The PPI report showed energy prices rose 10.8% in September, while transportation and warehousing prices advanced 3.4%, the most since April. Food prices rose 1.2%.

strong>The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

1. U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Largest Level in More Than a Year — The trade gap in goods and services widened by 14% in August from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted number of roughly $106 billion, the Commerce Department reported. That marked the highest level since March 2025, when companies were racing to import goods early in President Trump’s second term to get ahead of tariffs. Imports in crude oil and nonmonetary gold saw big monthly gains, along with semiconductors. The data-center boom has been a major driver of the trade deficit this year, with imports of semiconductors, computers and computer accessories up a total of $234 billion in the first eight months of this year, compared with the same period last year.
2. US Mortgage Rates Jump to 7.49%, Highest Since 2023 — The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 19 basis points to 7.49% in the week ended Oct. 2, its highest point since November 2023, according to Mortgage Bankers Association figures released Wednesday. It’s up about half a percentage point over the past three weeks, marking the fastest increase since early 2023. Energy costs and overall inflation have climbed since the start of the Iran war, driving up yields for 10-year Treasury notes, which heavily influence mortgage rates and on Monday reached the highest level since 2002. Along with still-elevated prices, mortgage rates have prevented sales of previously owned homes and new-home sales from sustaining any momentum.
3. Trump Announces White House Hearing to Investigate Fed’s Lisa Cook — President Trump has formed a committee to evaluate the mortgage-fraud allegations against Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook and has scheduled an in-person hearing at the White House for Nov. 5. The announcement marks a dramatic escalation in the president’s long-running attempt to wield more control over the Fed. The central bank is set up to operate independently from the White House, an arrangement seen by economists as essential for allowing it to set interest rates without political considerations. Trump tried to fire Cook last year, but the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that she hadn’t been given sufficient opportunity to present her case. The Trump memo lays out a step-by-step process to consider the allegations against Cook.
4. U.S. Trade Deficit Widens as Data-Center Build-Out Boosts Imports — The trade gap in goods and services widened by 14% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted number of roughly $106 billion, the Commerce Department said. That is the highest level since March 2025, when companies were racing to import goods early in President Trump’s second term to get ahead of tariffs.
The data-center boom has driven imports of semiconductors, computers and computer accessories up a total of $234 billion in the first eight months of this year, compared with the same period last year. The trade deficit for goods reached about $137 billion in August. Still, through the first eight months of the year, the goods deficit was about $110 billion smaller than the same period in 2025. U.S. exports also grew in August, but at a slower pace than imports.

strong>The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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