Archive for October, 2010

Week Oct 22 2010 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, October 25th, 2010

1. China Hikes Rates To Quell Inflation — China unexpectedly hiked its key lending rate by a quarter-point overnight, giving a clear signal that inflation has replaced economic growth as Beijing’s top concern.

2. China’s growth cools in 3Q — China’s economy grew 9.6% in Q3, the slowest pace in a year and roughly in-line with expectations. Following this week’s surprise rate hike and the moderation of China’s slowdown.
3. Germany sees higher growth — Germany revised higher its estimate for 2010 economic growth, forecasting the country’s GDP will expand 3.4% this year but slow to +1.8% in 2011.
4. Bullish Sentiment Nears 50% — today’s release of weekly sentiment figures from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that bullish sentiment rose close to 50%, which is the highest level since early September. Prior to that, you have to go all the way back to the Summer of 2009 to find a bullish reading as high as it is now.

The week ahead — Economic data:

Week Oct 15 2010 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Friday, October 15th, 2010

1. Optimism Rises Ahead Of Nov. Election — Consumer confidence hit a five-month high in early October and the six-month outlook shot up ahead of next month’s midterm elections, according to the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index released Tuesday. The overall sentiment gauge rose 1.1 points to 46.4 as optimism rose among Republicans, who expect to make significant gains in the Nov. 2 polls.

2. FOMC suggests QE2 coming soon — The FOMC minutes, released yesterday, supported market speculation that a second round of quantitative easing will be coming soon, as “several” officials said the Fed would need to act soon unless inflation moves back towards a more consistent level. As expected, the committee cut its growth expectations for the rest of this year and next.
3. Consumer sentiment edges lower in October — The preliminary Reuters-University of Michigan consumer sentiment index edged lower in October, falling to 67.9. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected the index to rise to 69.8 in October from 68.2 last month.
4. U.S. retail sales rise 0.6% in September — Monthly increase is third in a row; August sales revised higher. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales improved by 0.4% in September. August sales minus autos were also revised higher — up 1.0% from the 0.6% increase originally reported.
5. Foreclosure crisis catches up to bank stocks — all the renewed talk about the foreclosure crisis has finally taken a toll on banks’ shares, with U.S. financial stocks posting notable losses yesterday while the broader market was essentially flat. Bank bonds fell and banks’ credit-default swaps widened.
6. Bullish Sentiment Reaching Exuberant Levels — The latest AAII bullish reading came in at 47.1% – a slight decline from last week, however, still well above the historical average.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week Oct 8 2010 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Friday, October 8th, 2010

1. Bank of Japan cuts interest rate to near zero — the Bank of Japan surprisingly announced a $418 billion monetary easing program while cutting interest rates to virtually zero.
2. Q3 Profits Expected To Rise 24% — Alcoa provided a strong unofficial kickoff to earnings season late Thursday, reporting Q3 profit that more than doubled vs. a year earlier, beating views.

3. Retailers reported stronger-than-expected September sales Thursday, buoyed by a late surge in back-to-school buying.
4. Japan open to further forex intervention — Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said last month’s intervention in currency markets wasn’t a sign that Japan is prepared to conduct large-scale interventions to guide the yen to a specific level. However, he kept the door open to “firm measures, including intervention, when needed.”
5. Moody’s considers China upgrade — Moody’s said this morning it may upgrade its A1 rating on Chinese government debt, citing the nation’s growth outlook, the “determined and effective” stimulus program enacted during the financial crisis, and the “likely containment” of risks associated with 2009’s credit expansion.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week Oct 1 2010 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Friday, October 1st, 2010

In the stock market those who expect history to repeat itself exactly are doomed to failure — Yale Hirsch

1. Confidence ebbed recently among both corporate heads and consumers
2. 2Q GDP growth slows to 1.7% — compared with 3.7% in the first quarter; A slight upward revision to its prior second-quarter estimate.
3. Moody’s downgrades Spanish debt to Aa1 from Aaa;
4. House passes bill targeting China’s yuan policy — The House easily passed legislation to penalize China’s foreign exchange practices, sending a powerful signal to Beijing to boost the value of its currency but risking a backlash that could harm U.S. companies and consumers.
5. U.S. Futures Rise Ahead Of Multiple Economic Reports — German Jobless Rate Just 7.5% As Much Of Europe Struggles — Germany’s unemployment in September fell to its lowest level since November 1992, the government said Thursday, but questions still swirl over whether Europe’s industrial engine can pull the region out of lingering gloom. Ireland on Thursday said it was readying a bailout of its No. 2 bank and would shore up two others, pushing its deficit to 32% of GDP this year.
6. Investor Intelligence’s survey found bullish advisers rose to 43.3% while bears fell to 27.8%

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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