“The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological. Investor”
― Howard Marks

1. U.S. Domestic Flights Could Virtually Shut Down — major U.S. airlines are drafting plans for a potential voluntary shutdown of virtually all passenger flights across the U.S., according to industry and federal officials, as government agencies also consider ordering such a move and the nation’s air-traffic control system continues to be ravaged by the coronavirus contagion. U.S. airlines have already eliminated the vast majority of international flying and have announced plans to cut back domestic flying by as much as 40%. Travelers are staying home at even greater rates. The Transportation Security Administration reported that passenger flow at its checkpoints was down more than 80% Sunday from the same day a year earlier.
2. The U.S. Has the Third-Highest Number of Coronavirus Infections, China is Lifting Quarantine Measures in Hubei Province — the U.S. reported more than 13,000 new cases yesterday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. With 46,450 reported infections, the U.S. has the third-highest number of cases after China and Italy. In China, Chinese authorities are planning to lift the quarantine on healthy people in Hubei province, the initial center of the coronavirus pandemic. Hubei authorities will end restrictions on outbound traffic starting tomorrow, with the exception of its capital city of Wuhan, which will block departures for two more weeks.
3. Deal Reached on $2 Trillion Coronavirus Rescue Bill — lawmakers and the Trump administration have struck a preliminary agreement on a sweeping stimulus package. It will provide direct checks to many Americans, drastically expand unemployment insurance, offer hundreds of billions in loans to businesses and give additional resources to health-care providers.
The bill, designed to offer relief to individuals, the health-care system and even an entire corporate sector ravaged by the outbreak, would:

4. The U.S. Now Has the World’s Most Coronavirus Cases / Updates– the U.S. has surpassed China and Italy to become the nation with the most confirmed coronavirus cases, marking a new milestone in the fight against the pandemic. There were nearly 86,000 infections in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. New York state’s 39,140 infections–tens of thousands more than in any other state–accounted for almost half of all U.S. cases. The country’s death toll stood at 1,300, according to Johns Hopkins.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Blog for the week of Mar 20 20 will not be posted due to the Market Extreme Volatility!!! STAY SAFE

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Investor psychology can cause a security to be priced just about anywhere in the short run, regardless of its fundamentals” — Howard Marks

1. The World Health Organization has declared the new coronavirus a pandemic — The virus has spread to more than 100 countries. Confirmed cases outside of China have tripled over the past week and officials today locked down all of Italy, where the virus is currently killing more people than anywhere else, even as a wave of rioting in its prisons broke out. Israel announced restrictions requiring all arrivals on international flights to place themselves in quarantine for two weeks. Japan also imposed a two-week quarantine on visitors from China and South Korea.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the virus will be stoppable, even if the agency does declare a pandemic. Of 110 countries that have reported the disease, 79 have had 100 or fewer cases, Dr. Tedros said, and 43 countries have fewer than 10 cases. Roughly 80% of cases tend to be mild, but those who are older or have underlying health conditions are at a higher risk. In the U.S., the number of confirmed cases grew to 603, with 22 deaths, across 34 states and Washington, D.C. The executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey tested positive for the virus.
2. Oil Prices Collapse After Saudi Pledge to Boost Output to Battle Russia — Oil prices recorded their biggest one-day crash since the first Gulf War in 1991 on Monday, tumbling as traders bet that a clash between oil giants Saudi Arabia and Russia could flood a world already hobbled by the coronavirus outbreak with a glut of crude. Saudi Arabian state oil giant Aramco’s move over the weekend to cut most of its official selling prices triggered the oil-price crash, with a barrel of Brent crude, the global gauge of prices, closing down 24% at $34.36. Saudi officials said the kingdom also plans to boost crude output. The tumble puts oil at its lowest level in four years and 50% below a peak hit Jan. 6. U.S. crude futures fell 25% to $31.13 a barrel, also posting their worst day since 1991 and ending the day at a four-year low.
3. Joe Biden won several primaries Tuesday, including the day’s top delegate prize, Michigan — The former vice president easily won Michigan’s primary, the most closely watched among the round of six nominating contests. Mr. Biden’s victory delivered a punishing blow to the prospects of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had won Michigan in 2016. The Midwest state was the biggest delegate prize on a day when Mr. Biden also scored wins in Idaho, Mississippi and Missouri. Mr. Biden built his delegate lead over Bernie Sanders with a coalition of African-Americans, suburbanites and older voters.
4. President Trump declared a national emergency to confront the coronavirus crisis— the declaration will release billions of dollars in federal aid — Mr. Trump also called for every state to establish emergency centers and said the government would partner with private industry to speed up virus testing. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Seema Verma said she was taking action to temporarily restrict all visitors and nonessential personnel from nursing homes. Mr. Trump also said he would waive interest on all student loans held by federal agencies until further notice and instruct the Energy Secretary to purchase “large quantities” of oil for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
5. Stocks in the U.S. continuing a haywire period on Wall Street and avoiding becoming one of the worst weeks in the stock market’s history — the market indexes recovered some ground on the heels of Wall Street’s worst day in more than three decades, when the Dow plunged 10%. But even with late week gains, the Dow is on pace to decline about 15% this week, which would register as the worst week since 2008 and one of the worst in its history. Also, the world’s four biggest cruise lines said they were cutting short voyages and suspending much of their operations until April, an unprecedented shutdown of a $38 billion industry in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Hotels hit from the outbreak are cutting room rates and starting to reduce staff, an effort to stabilize the business after plunging revenue, canceled group events and sharp declines in corporate travel.
In Hollywood, the entertainment industry is reeling: Television shows are going on emergency hiatus, movie releases are being delayed, and there is talk of shutting down production entirely.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“An expert in any field will have an advantage over a rookie. But neither the veteran nor the rookie can be sure what the next flip will look like. The veteran will just have a better guess” — Howard Marks

1. Former Vice President Joe Biden Won the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — Pete Buttigieg dropped out of the race, a day after Tom Steyer ended his bid. The rapid ascent of Mr. Sanders in the primaries confronts American business with the once unthinkable: The most powerful policy maker in the world could soon be a strident, lifelong critic of capitalism and big business. Also, SuperTuesday results in Biden sweeps the South, wins Texas; Sanders takes California. Joe Biden notched an impressive string of Super Tuesday victories, while Bernie Sanders won delegate-rich California, as the pair broke away from the field in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. The Democratic nomination contest has narrowed to essentially a two-person race
2. Washington State Emerged as the U.S. Center of a Spreading Coronavirus — state health officials reported four additional deaths there and 18 confirmed cases, and a number of schools closed for disinfection. The OECD said global economic growth will slow sharply this year as governments attempt to contain the epidemic, although the scale of the setback is highly uncertain. Industries from airlines to oil and energy face weakened business.
3. Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by Half Percentage Point to Combat Virus Fear — the Fed made an emergency half-percentage-point rate cut, the first rate change between scheduled policy meetings since the 2008 financial crisis. But U.S. stock markets fell anyway, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slipped below 1% for the first time, reflecting fears of a coronavirus recession.
4. General Motors is Renewing Its Push to Convince Wall Street on Electric Cars — in a presentation at the company’s engineering center near Detroit, GM executives detailed their strategy, including plans for new battery technology that will allow its vehicles to travel up to 400 miles on a single charge. The company said it would spend $20 billion to develop electric and autonomous vehicles. Investors have so far been putting their money on Tesla as the company best positioned to capitalize on a big swing toward electric vehicles. Tesla’s valuation has soared to more than $130 billion, roughly three times GM’s.
5. The number of U.S. coronavirus cases has risen Rapidly — the number of U.S. coronavirus cases has risen to 206, with 11 deaths. Ten of those deaths are in Washington state. While many of the overall cases are linked to travel, a growing number in certain parts of the country is linked to what is known as community transmission. Community transmission is a milestone for any disease, given that the virus could be circulating among the general public. But U.S. health officials said the mortality rate for the virus was likely lower than what other health organizations have estimated, citing the probability of many unreported cases. Seattle-area companies and schools reacted swiftly. The Northshore School District shut its 33 campuses for up to 14 days, affecting over 23,500 students. Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft all asked many employees to work from home. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency as the number of cases there rose to more than 50. Officials said two New York City residents and nine people in surrounding counties tested positive, bringing the total number of cases in the state to 22.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

There will not be any re-cap for the week of Feb 28 2020. We are away for some needed R&R.
Have a good week.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

The staffs at EGS.