“Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.” — Jack Schwager

1. Trump Threatens More Attacks on Iran After Houthis Join War — The Iran-backed Houthis earlier claimed attacks on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers, the group’s first for several months and opening a new front in the US-Iran conflict that has already disrupted global energy supplies and rattled bond markets. The developments helped push oil prices up further, with Brent crude jumping more than 6% on Thursday to $100 a barrel, a level it’s not touched in almost two months. Since July 10, around when the latest US-Iran flare-up began, it’s gained more than 30%.
2. Bonds Sell Off as Oil Prices Hit $100 a Barrel — Brent crude futures jumped 6%—more than $25 higher than where they stood in early July. That’s pushing up government bond yields around the world, with the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level in more than a year amid fears that price pressures could heat up again. Tehran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening another important route for oil flows and stoking fears that the U.S.-Iran conflict could escalate further.
3. Trump Rebuilds Tariffs With Forced-Labor Duties on 60 Economies — The US will collect duties of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners, its biggest move yet to reconstruct President Donald Trump’s tariff wall that was pierced by the Supreme Court.

The new levies follow an investigation into the alleged failure of around 60 economies to prevent forced labor in their supply chains to the detriment of American workers. Goods from some 10 trading partners deemed to have adopted forced-labor restrictions will be subject to 10% tariffs, including Mexico, the UK, Canada and India. Duties on items from the European Union and Taiwan will be at least 10% and products from Japan, Switzerland and South Korea will be taxed at at least 12.5% in a way that complies with the trade agreements they reached with the US, according to a Federal Register notice published Thursday. Products from dozens of others will face a 12.5% charge.

The new duties take effect Friday at 12:01 a.m. New York time, according to the notice. The levies won’t apply to certain goods already loaded onto vessels before that time.
4. Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Levels in Nearly a Year — The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.58% this week, up from 6.55% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac, the highest level to date this year. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which hit an 18-month high Thursday due to rising oil prices. Mortgage rates briefly fell below 6% in February, sparking hope for a rebound in home sales following years of stagnation. But the beginning of the Iran war drove rates upward and they have remained volatile since.

The surge in mortgage rates comes at the worst possible time. The real-estate industry had been hoping this year’s spring selling season, typically the busiest period of the year, would shake the frozen market loose. Instead, it was largely a bust, with buyers spooked by higher rates and uncertain about the path of the economy and job market.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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