Archive for June, 2011

Week June 25 2011 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, June 27th, 2011

“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” Bernard Baruch

1. Regulators to increase embeds at banks — as part of efforts to prevent another financial crisis, the New York Fed and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency are increasing the number of examiners who work at the offices of the banks they regulate.
2. Plane orders worth $20B announced in just one day — plane makers disclosed bookings for over 200 aircraft with a total value of more than $20B on the first day of the Paris Air Show. Airbus (EADSY.PK) led the charge, announcing several orders for its fuel-efficient A320neo jet, a competitor to Boeing’s (BA) 737.
3. FTC probes oil trading — the FTC is investigating whether oil companies, refiners and traders have engaged in anticompetitive practices or manipulated crude oil prices. The inquiry follows soaring refining margins and reports that refiners were using less of their capacity than they did last year, as well as other developments.
4. FOMC cuts 2011 GDP growth to 2.7%-2.9% from a 3.1%-3.3% — Ben Bernanke said the Fed doesn’t “have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting,” adding that weak housing and problems in the banking system might be “more persistent than we thought.” At the meeting, the FOMC kept rates at 0%-0.25% and said it would maintain this level for an ‘extended period.’ The Fed also confirmed it would end its bond-buying program on schedule, sending the dollar higher.
5. S&P 500 and sector P/E ratio charts — recent downturn for the S&P 500 has caused its P/E ratio (trailing 12-month) to drop from nearly 16 to 14.74. Below chart courtesy from the Bespoke Investment Group.

6. EU to provide Greece with funds — the EU and IMF have pledged to provide Greece with a €12B tranche of its bailout to stop it from defaulting in July after refusing to allow the country to soften its austerity measures. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou now needs to get the program passed through parliament on Thursday next week. EU heads of government, who have been meeting in Brussels, are also nearing approval of a new rescue package to take Athens until the end of 2014.
7. Trading in Italian banks halted — trading in Italian bank stocks was suspended briefly following steep drops after Moody’s yesterday put them on negative outlook.
8. House passes patent bill — the House yesterday approved a bill that favors inventors who file their patent applications first as opposed to the current system that operates on a first-to-invent basis. The change will bring the U.S. into line with Europe and Japan.
9. IEA to release oil reserves — the 28-nation Int’l Energy Agency will release 60 mil. barrels from strategic reserves over 30 days, to cut prices and lift flagging growth just as fiscal and monetary stimulus end.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week June 17 2011 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, June 20th, 2011

“The most realistic distinction between the investor and the speculator is found in their attitude toward stock-market movements. The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices. Market movements are important to him in a practical sense, because they alternately create low price levels at which he would be wise to buy and high price levels at which he certainly should refrain from buying and probably would be wise to sell.” Benjamin Graham.

1. China’s consumer inflation hits 5.5% — Chinese consumer inflation accelerated to a three-year high in May, in line with expectations and bolstering the case for tighter credit conditions to help contain prices.
2. BOJ keeps rate at zero, expands lending facility — the Bank of Japan has kept its key rate at 0%-0.1% and slightly raised its outlook. “Japan’s economy continues to face downward pressure, mainly on the production side due to the effects of the earthquake disaster, but is showing some signs of picking up,”
3. Banks get another month to fix foreclosure practices — regulators have given leading mortgage servicers a further 30 days to submit plans for revamping their business practices, in particular loan modifications and foreclosures. The banks, which include Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan (JPM) and Citigroup (C), also need to identify and compensate borrowers who may have suffered financial harm due to improper repossessions.
4. Fed mulls adopting inflation goal — Fed officials are in talks about setting an explicit inflation target, beyond the theoretical debates the FOMC has held on the issue for over a decade, sources said. Ben Bernanke has long supported such a strategy, and it is practiced by central banks around the world, including in the U.K. and Canada.
5. India hikes interest rates by quarter point — the Reserve Bank of India on Thursday hiked interest rates for the tenth time in 15 months, lifting its key repo rate by a quarter point to 7.50% as it noted inflation pressures persisted even amid recent signs of cooling in the economy.
6. SEC may charge ratings agencies — the SEC may bring civil fraud charges against credit-rating companies for their role in the financial crisis, sources said. The regulator is investigating S&P (MHP) and Moody’s (MCO), and is focusing on whether the agencies committed fraud by not doing the research necessary to adequately rate the subprime mortgages and other loans that underpinned mortgage-bond deals.
7. Biggest banks set for higher capital requirements — the world’s largest banks are facing an extra capital requirement of 2.5% of their assets that would be on top of the ‘Basel III’ minimum of 7% set by regulators last year. Sources said the banks include Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS).
8. Latest sentiment figures from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), Bullish Sentiment shows a modest uptick; However, less than a third of investors are currently in the bullish camp (29%), which is less than half the levels we saw towards the end of 2010. Chart courtesy from the Bespoke Investment Group.

9. Market short-Term oversold — chart below displays the VIX (fear indicator). VIX measures of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Week June 11 2011 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, June 13th, 2011

“The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money [to spend].” — Margaret Thatcher

1. Greece’s Q1 GDP grew at a slower than expected 0.2%, after shrinking for four consecutive quarters. On a year-over-year basis GDP growth declined 5.5%. Investment plunged 19.2%.
2. Goldman the subject of yet another probe — the SEC is investigating whether Goldman Sachs (GS) and other major banks may have broken bribery laws in dealings with Libya’s sovereign-wealth fund, sources said. Officials are scrutinizing a $50M fee Goldman offered to pay the fund as part of a proposal to help the latter recoup losses of 98% on $1.3B that it invested with the bank.
3. Debt talks to continue as Fitch warns of downgrade — Congressional leaders and White House officials met last Wed. to continue talks on raising the U.S.’s $14.3T borrowing limit and cutting the deficit, a day after Fitch became the third ratings agency to threaten to downgrade the government’s credit status if the ceiling isn’t lifted. Republicans and Democrats have until August 2 to reach a deal or risk the U.S. defaulting.
4. Fed now largest holder of U.S. Treasurys — following its multiple quantitative easing operations, the Fed surpassed China as the largest holder of U.S. Treasurys at the end of the first quarter. By the time QEII ends this month, the Fed will hold 16% of U.S. paper vs. 12% for China.
5. AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish Sentiment Surges to 47.7% — this is the lowest level of optimism recorded since August 26, 2010. Bullish sentiment has now been below its historical average for eight consecutive weeks.
6. Notable video from Jim Rogers– courtesy from MarketWatch.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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