“The market doesn’t reward the smartest traders. It rewards the most disciplined ones.” — Unknown

1. G-7 Tasks IEA With Preparing Scenarios for Oil-Stockpile Release — The G-7 wants to be ready to deploy oil reserves if needed, and tasked the International Energy Agency with studying the volumes that could be released, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told reporters in Paris on Tuesday. France holds the current G-7 presidency. The IEA, which oversees the use of OECD oil reserves, will discuss the process at a board meeting later meeting.
2. US Core Inflation Slowed as Expected Before War With Iran — The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% from January, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. From a year ago, it was unchanged at 2.5% — the slowest pace in nearly five years. The report showed lower prices for used cars and motor vehicle insurance helped keep inflation in check last month, despite higher costs for gasoline and groceries including fresh vegetables and coffee. Federal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their policy meeting next week, a prediction that preceded the latest events in the Middle East. With the war threatening to push up inflation — at least in the near term — some investors now see a chance the central bank will remain on hold for longer. However, officials also need to be mindful of lingering fragility in the labor market.
3. Deutsche Bank Flags $30 Billion Exposure to Private Credit — Deutsche Bank AG flagged a €26 billion ($30 billion) exposure to private credit, an asset class that’s grappling with fund redemptions, scrutiny of underwriting standards and the impact of AI on some borrowers such as software makers. In its annual report published Thursday, the lender said it is not exposed to “significant risks” related to non-bank financial institutions, but that it could face potential indirect risks through interconnected portfolios and counterparties. While identifying private credit as a “key risk,” the report did not mention any losses or provisions tied to the private credit exposure, which represents about 5% of its loan book.
Deutsche Bank, which also flagged a potential $1 billion litigation risk on Thursday, fell 7.2% at 3:31 p.m. in Frankfurt trading, putting it on track for the biggest one-day drop since April.
4. Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1% — Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary forecasting tool for inflation, posted a seasonally adjusted gain of 0.3% for the month, putting the annual rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“You Can’t Take the Same Action As Everyone Else And Expect To Outperform” — Howard Marks

1. US Companies Added 63,000 Jobs in February, ADP Data Show — Private-sector payrolls increased 63,000 in February after a downward revision to the prior month, according to ADP Research data out Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 50,000 advance. Federal Reserve officials generally see the job market as stabilizing, which should allow them to keep interest rates unchanged in the near future so that they can focus on stubborn inflation. Policymakers this week have said it’s too soon to assess how the war in Iran will impact the US economy. The advance in hiring was led by education and health services, which has been responsible for the majority of job creation in the last year. Construction and information also added to payrolls. The strongest hiring was seen in the South as well as at businesses with fewer than 20 employees.
2. BlackRock Slashed Another Private Loan Value From 100 to Zero — The roughly $25 million loan to Infinite Commerce Holdings, a so-called Amazon aggregator that buys up online sellers of products from spa treatments to light bulbs, is now worthless, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. reported in fourth-quarter filings released last week. The fund had marked the junior debt at 100 cents on the dollar in the third quarter. The moves add to mounting concerns over defaults and underwriting standards in the $1.8 trillion private credit market. The industry’s huge bet on software companies threatened by AI has led to unprecedented redemption demands by jittery investors. Blackstone Inc. announced on Monday it would allow investors to redeem a record 7.9% of shares from its flagship private credit fund.
3. China Signals New Era of Slower Economic Growth — China signaled that the world’s second-largest economy is entering an era of slower expansion, setting a target for gross domestic product growth of between 4.5% and 5% this year.
It is the lowest target set since at least the 1990s and follows three years in which officials called for growth of “around 5%.” If China’s economy were to expand at a pace below 5% this year, it would be the slowest growth reported by the country in more than three decades, other than during the Covid-19 pandemic years.
4. U.S. Loses 92,000 Jobs in Widespread and Unexpected Downturn — Nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 last month, one of the largest declines since the pandemic, after a strong start to the year. While some of the downside was expected in advance, like a temporary dent from striking healthcare workers and a potential hit from bad weather, a wide array of industries cut jobs in the month. Job report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests companies may be starting to follow through on a series of previously announced layoffs. And a recent trend in productivity gains illustrates how spending on artificial intelligence has allowed some firms to get by with leaner staffing. The figures could refocus the Fed’s attention on the jobs market as it assesses how long to hold interest rates steady. Policymakers have been more attuned to inflation lately — even before the US-Israeli war on Iran sparked concerns among investors about price pressures.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

We are away for the Week of March 1st 2026 for some needed R&R — Have a good week!!

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: