“The market doesn’t reward the smartest traders. It rewards the most disciplined ones.” — Igor Arapov

1. US Inflation Accelerates as Gas, Rent and Food Prices Climb — The consumer price index rose 3.8% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday, the most since 2023. After adjusting for inflation, wages fell for the first time in three years. The figures show how the impact of the Iran war is hitting the US economy as energy costs surge. The BLS report indicated gas prices rose almost 28% over the past two months. Grocery prices, rents and airfares also saw large increases from a month earlier. A sustained pickup, especially in the cost of essentials, could lead consumers to cut back on spending. The overall CPI advanced 0.6% in April. Grocery prices rose 0.7%, the most in almost four years. Meats, dairy, fresh fruits and vegetables all posted notable gains. Food prices have been a major contributor to affordability concerns in recent years and could play into Americans’ views of the economy heading into midterm elections.
2. US Producer Prices Rise Most Since 2022 on Energy Costs — The producer price index rose 6% from a year ago, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. That topped all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The monthly gain was also the sharpest since 2022. A core measure of wholesale inflation that excludes food and energy increased 5.2% from April 2025 — the biggest advance in more than three years. The PPI data likely reinforce Federal Reserve officials’ views that inflation should remain their top concern in the face of the war-driven surge in oil prices that’s starting to ripple through to other parts of the economy.
3. Xi’s Taiwan Warning to Trump Highlights Tensions in Beijing Summit — Xi’s remarks, while in line with China’s longstanding position, threatened to dim the mood of a visit both countries hoped would stabilize ties. The meetings that began Thursday morning at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing were billed as a gathering of superpowers to quell economic and trade disputes.

Those topics were indeed raised, including discussions of trade ties, U.S. access to the Chinese market, Beijing’s investment in U.S. industries and its purchases of American agricultural products.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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