‘The optimists are the ones who make everything happen. Pessimists just try to live in the past.’ — Tim Draper

1. Spring Home-Selling Season Ends on a Bad Note — Sales of existing homes slid 2.4% in June over the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The number fell well short of expectations: Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast an increase of 0.7%. The housing market has been mired in a yearslong slump, with the rise in mortgage rates in 2022 putting an end to a pandemic-era buying spree. Mortgage rates briefly fell below 6% at the beginning of 2026, sparking hope for a housing resurgence. But after the war in Iran began, rates surged and have remained volatile since. Last week, 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 6.43%, according to Freddie Mac.
2. U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in May as Imports of AI Components Rose — The trade gap in goods and services widened by 42.2% in May from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $77.6 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That marked the highest level since the deficit neared $133 billion in March last year, when companies were racing to import goods ahead of President Trump’s new tariff rollouts. Exports fell 3.2% in May, led by a large decline in sales of gold to overseas buyers. Big swings in international flows of the precious metal have added to volatility in trade data for months. Imports picked up, rising 3.3% on the month, aided by strong demand for goods related to the AI build-out, including semiconductors and computer accessories. Shipments of pharmaceutical products, cellphones and vehicles from abroad also increased.
3. U.S., Iran Trade Fire in Largest Escalation Since Peace Deal == The U.S. pounded targets that included missile and drone sites near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran fired on Kuwait and Bahrain, which host U.S. military bases, according to a senior U.S. official. On Thursday, Jordan said its air defenses had intercepted eight Iranian missiles. Explosions were reported in Bandar Abbas and Sirik, located along the coast framing the waterway, according to Iranian media. The U.S. attacks were broader in scope than Tuesday’s and included air-defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, naval capabilities and logistics infrastructure, according to Centcom.
4. Iran Is Rushing Its Own Ships Through a Snarled Strait of Hormuz — Iran has been rushing oil and goods in and out of its ports since a preliminary peace deal signed in June lifted a U.S. blockade and dialed back enforcement actions against Tehran’s so-called shadow fleet—vessels that surreptitiously helped it evade American sanctions. Over the past three days, even as renewed fighting has begun to limit traffic generally, more than a third of the 101 vessels that transited the strait used a lane that hugs the Iranian coast, according to Kpler, a company that uses satellite imagery and vessels’ positional data to track commercial-ship movements. Most ships using the Iranian route bring goods into the country or take its oil out to world markets.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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