1. Prices Paid to US Producers Increase by More Than Forecast — The producer price index rose 0.7% after a 0.5% gain in the prior month, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. An underlying gauge of wholesale inflation that excludes food and energy increased 0.5%.
The producer price data follow recent figures that showed underlying consumer inflation slowed in February from a month earlier. But that was before the Iran war, which has driven up energy prices and started to dent consumer sentiment. More than half of the increase in the PPI last month was due to a 0.5% advance in services costs, according to the BLS. That includes rising costs for traveler accommodation, food wholesaling and investment services. Food prices climbed by the most since mid-2021, partly due to a nearly 49% surge in fresh and dry vegetables.
2. Fed Expected to Hold Rates, Weigh Oil Shock — Officials are expected to hold their benchmark interest rate steady for a second consecutive meeting in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. But policymakers are likely having a robust discussion over the ways the war in the Middle East could put pressure on both sides of their mandate — and whether responding to the threat of slower growth could add fuel to inflation that’s been above the Fed’s target for five years running. Data released since the Fed’s January gathering showed inflation remained elevated even before the conflict in the Middle East caused oil prices to surge. And news on the labor market has been mixed: A strong January report was followed by a surprising drop in payrolls in February.
3. U.S. Leading Indicators Forecast Further Slowdown — The U.S. economy is expected to slow further amid continued headwinds, while conflict in the Middle East further clouds the growth outlook, according to a basket of monthly economic indicators. The index fell 1.3% over the six months between July and January, compared with a 2.6% contraction over the previous six-month period, according to the report.
The latest data doesn’t reflect the impact from war in Iran, Monica said, adding that The Conference Board was therefore cutting its growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.0% for 2026.
4. The Well-Timed Trades Made Moments Before Trump’s Policy Surprises — According WSJ, Most recently, there was a mysterious flurry of trading activity in oil and S&P 500 futures about 15 minutes before Trump de-escalated tensions with Iran with a Monday morning post on Truth Social, which sent oil prices tumbling and stocks rallying. March 23, 2026: Early Monday, Trump announced in a Truth Social post that he was postponing strikes on Iranian power plants thanks to “productive” talks with Iran. About 15 minutes before the post, a sudden burst of activity hit the oil-futures market. During the two-minute period from 6:49 a.m. to 6:51 a.m. ET, more than $760 million worth of Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil futures changed hands, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A similar burst of activity took place at the same time in S&P 500 futures.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: