“The market doesn’t reward the smartest traders. It rewards the most disciplined ones.” — Unknown

1. G-7 Tasks IEA With Preparing Scenarios for Oil-Stockpile Release — The G-7 wants to be ready to deploy oil reserves if needed, and tasked the International Energy Agency with studying the volumes that could be released, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told reporters in Paris on Tuesday. France holds the current G-7 presidency. The IEA, which oversees the use of OECD oil reserves, will discuss the process at a board meeting later meeting.
2. US Core Inflation Slowed as Expected Before War With Iran — The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% from January, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. From a year ago, it was unchanged at 2.5% — the slowest pace in nearly five years. The report showed lower prices for used cars and motor vehicle insurance helped keep inflation in check last month, despite higher costs for gasoline and groceries including fresh vegetables and coffee. Federal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their policy meeting next week, a prediction that preceded the latest events in the Middle East. With the war threatening to push up inflation — at least in the near term — some investors now see a chance the central bank will remain on hold for longer. However, officials also need to be mindful of lingering fragility in the labor market.
3. Deutsche Bank Flags $30 Billion Exposure to Private Credit — Deutsche Bank AG flagged a €26 billion ($30 billion) exposure to private credit, an asset class that’s grappling with fund redemptions, scrutiny of underwriting standards and the impact of AI on some borrowers such as software makers. In its annual report published Thursday, the lender said it is not exposed to “significant risks” related to non-bank financial institutions, but that it could face potential indirect risks through interconnected portfolios and counterparties. While identifying private credit as a “key risk,” the report did not mention any losses or provisions tied to the private credit exposure, which represents about 5% of its loan book.
Deutsche Bank, which also flagged a potential $1 billion litigation risk on Thursday, fell 7.2% at 3:31 p.m. in Frankfurt trading, putting it on track for the biggest one-day drop since April.
4. Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1% — Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary forecasting tool for inflation, posted a seasonally adjusted gain of 0.3% for the month, putting the annual rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: