“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” — Warren Buffett

1. Powell Reiterates Half-Point Hikes Are Likely in June and July — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at each of its next two meetings, while leaving open the possibility it could do more. Asked if he was taking a larger 75 basis-point increase off the table, he restated his comment from a May 4 press conference that the Fed wasn’t “actively considering” such a move, according to a transcript of the interview released by Marketplace.
2. US Producer Prices Rise More Than Forecast in Sign of Persistent Inflation — The producer price index for final demand increased 11% from April of last year and 0.5% from the prior month, driven by goods, Labor Department data showed Thursday. That followed sizable upward revisions to the March figures. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI increased 0.4% from a month earlier and was up 8.8% from a year ago. While that measure rose at a softer-than-expected monthly pace, March was revised up to a 1.2% advance. The data, while moderating somewhat from March, suggest persistent inflation in the production pipeline will continue to filter through to consumer prices, which also slowed from the prior month. Producers are likely to continue facing higher costs as Russia’s war in Ukraine and Covid-related lockdowns in China further strain supply chains, adding to the probability they’ll pass those expenses onto consumers.
3. Bear Market Stats — according to Ned Davis Research, there have been 10 S&P 500 bear markets—defined as declines of 20% or more—since 1956, the average drop was 36.6% and last an average of 391 days. Below is the chart of the last 10-Bear Market going back to 1957.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: