Week of Sept 12 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

1. Trump Plans to Ban Imports of Some Canadian Dairy, Alcohol — President Donald Trump signed a series of proclamations on Tuesday that included bans on motorcycles, whey, molasses, non-alcoholic beer, and a range of alcoholic beverages. The import bans for some Canadian dairy products and alcohol will take effect in three weeks, a senior administration official told reporters. Modifications to the Section 338 tariffs will go into place in one week. Canada is the largest supplier of dairy products to the US by volume, accounting for about 14% of the country’s imports, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Those shipments, totaling over 120,000 tons last year, were worth about $433 million. The US president’s actions are the latest salvo in a trade fight that has expanded well beyond tariffs. Talks between the US and Canada on a trade truce collapsed at the last minute in August, leading the Trump administration to follow through with a 50% tariff on billions in Canadian goods.
2. Treasury to buy back more government bonds than previously announced — This is the first buyback operation since Treasury said last month that it would at least double the size of its government-debt buybacks from $2 billion. The new figure is below the top range of what had been expected. Last month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised markets with the expanded buyback plan, which he said was a response to the steep rise in 30-year Treasury yields
3. Wholesale Inflation Rose 0.4% in August as Diesel Costs Surge — The producer price index for total final demand rose 0.4% in August, translating to growth of 5.4% year over year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The continued persistence of wholesale inflation could make a stronger case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week. Yet excluding the surge in fuel prices, the core reading was fairly benign. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.2% month over month in August, a bit softer than the consensus call for a 0.3% advance and a deceleration from July’s revised 0.3% reading. Core producer prices rose 4.6% year over year, an acceleration from July’s revised 4.3% pace.
4. Home Sales Slump to Lowest Level in More Than a Year. High Mortgage Rates Are Biting Buyers — Existing-home sales dropped 2% in August to their slowest pace in more than a year as rising mortgage rates hurt already-slow demand. Previously owned homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The result is the slowest pace since June 2025, which it tied, according to historic data. The median home sales price rose 1.6% from one year prior to $429,100, while the number of homes on the market rose to 1.62 million units—the first time that count exceeded 1.6 million since November 2019, the trade group said.
5. US Core CPI Tops Forecasts, Bolstering Case for Rate Hike — The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, it advanced 2.4%. The report suggests inflation made little progress toward the Fed’s goal last month amid ongoing pressures from the Iran war, tariffs and the data center buildout. The US central bank will likely see the numbers as tipping the scale in favor of the first rate increase in three years after some officials suggested the Sept. 15-16 decision could come down to what the figures showed. Friday’s report showed the overall CPI was up 0.4% from the prior month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Energy prices rose 2.1% in August, while grocery prices were little changed and owners’ equivalent rent, the largest component of the CPI, advanced 0.2%.

strong>The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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