“Take a theory and stick with it. But you also have to be open-minded enough to switch tracks if you feel that your theory has been proven wrong.” — Tony Saliba

1. Puerto Rico Seeking Major U.S. Aid — Puerto Rico will need “tens of billions” of dollars in aid from Washington as it struggles to stabilize a humanitarian crisis in the wake of Hurricane Maria, according to the island’s treasury secretary. The estimate comes as President Trump arrives in San Juan to receive updates on relief and rescue efforts. He will then meet with Governor Ricardo Rossello for a “briefing with senior military personnel.
2. Senate Panel to Hold Hearing on Yahoo Data Breach — the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee plans to hold a hearing later this month over the 2013 massive data breach at Yahoo (NYSE:VZ) after the firm bumped up its estimate for users affected to 3B from 1B. Senator John Thune said he will ask witnesses whether “new information has revealed steps they should have taken earlier, and whether there is potentially more bad news to come.”
3. Holiday Retail Sales Expected to Rise 4% — the National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to increase between 3.6% and 4.0% this year. The forecast is higher than the 3.5% annual growth seen over the past five years. Retailers are expected to hire between 500K and 550K temporary workers this holiday season, down from last year’s total of 575K.
4. ITC (International Trade Commission) Ruling On Washing Machines that Surging Imports are Hurting U.S. Producers — President Trump will have broad leeway to impose a sweeping remedy after an ITC ruling found that surging imports of washing machines from the likes of LG (OTC:LGEAF) and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) are hurting domestic makers such as Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR). Whirlpool’s “global safeguard” tactic may prompt Trump to issue a sweeping tariff covering many countries, rather than the more focused barriers in typical trade cases. The ITC will hold a public hearing on possible remedies October 19, and will recommend those to President Trump by December 4.
5. Tropical Storm Nate threatens Gulf Oil and Gas — oil markets are wary as Tropical Storm Nate heads for the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a likely U.S. landfall. Nearly 15% of oil production and 6.5% of natural gas output in the U.S. Gulf had been shut as of late last week as operators evacuate offshore facilities in advance of the storm. While energy production may be hampered, most Gulf offshore rigs and platforms, and oil refining and gas processing on the coast, likely will be on the west side of the storm – typically the weaker side;
6. S&P500 Index (SPX) Overbought On a Short-Term Basis — the SPX index is two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, which typically means it doesn’t get much more overbought than that before at least a pause or pullback develops.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: