“The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.” – Jesse Livermore

1. FOMC Chairwoman Yellen Latest Statement On Economy – It’s ‘Pretty healthy’ and Doesn’t Need Fed’s Help — the economy’s doing pretty well and doesn’t necessarily need a step on the accelerator from the Fed, Chairwoman Janet Yellen says, but the “neutral” ending spot for short-term interest rates is “pretty low.” On a recent speech at the University of Michigan, she didn’t tip the Fed’s approach either way, but characterized the central bank as near its twin goals of full employment and inflation control.
2. China Investigates Top Insurance Regulator — the anti-corruption crackdown in China rose to a new level over the weekend after the head of China’s insurance regulator fell into the spotlight. China Insurance Regulatory Commission leader Xiang Junbo was charged with serious disciplinary violations, a phrasing typically associated with graft. Xaing has led the insurance regulator since 2011 and has been vocal about finding “financial crocodiles” while on the job.
3. China’s Export Outlook Beats Expectations, Points to Continued Strength — China’s 2017 export outlook brightened after the government reported better than expected trade growth for March and as U.S. President Trump suddenly declared China is not a currency manipulator. China’s exports rose at the fastest pace in more than two years in March, up 16.4% Y/Y, while import growth remained strong at 20.2%; the country’s crude oil imports hit a record high of nearly 9.2M bbl/day. Analysts said the stronger trade data reinforces the growing view that economic activity in China has remained resilient and that global manufacturing is improving.
4. IEA Cuts Oil outlook for 2017 Demand Growth, Sees Second Straight Annual Drop — the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for 2017 global oil demand growth to 1.3M bbl/day in its latest monthly market report, with growth expected to slow in 2017 for second year in a row. OPEC’s oil production fell by 365K bbl/day in March, bringing the cartel’s compliance to its supply commitments to 99% and likely smoothing talks as members begin to consider the prospect of extending production cuts. Meanwhile, the IEA says production in the U.S. rose to 9M bbl/day in March from a trough of 8.6M bbl/day last September.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: