“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” — Sir John Templeton

1. Disability claims spike following recession — the number of people receiving disability benefits has jumped from 7.1M in December 2007 to an estimated 8.9M in March, or 5.4% of the civilian workforce. That compares with just 1.7% in 1970. The latest trend costs 0.6% of national output, or equivalent to around $95B a year.
2. Chinese imports suggest solid demand — China swung to a shocking trade deficit of $884M in March from a surplus of $15.25B in February, badly missing forecasts for a surplus of $14.7B. Imports rose 14% and beat consensus, helping to reduce worries over the strength of domestic demand, while exports climbed 10%. However, questions have been raised about the data, especially with exports to Hong Kong rising by what researcher IHS says is an “astounding” 92.9%.
3. Facebook to roll out new targeted ad tool — per WSJ, in an attempt to win more advertising dollars, Facebook Inc. (FB) is using new ways to cull personal information from outside the social network and match it with data submitted by its billion-plus users. Facebook launched a new last week that will help advertisers directly target its members based on their non-Facebook activity, including their Web surfing, email subscriptions and spending. The tool combines the social network’s data with that from third-party marketers such as Acxiom (ACXM) and Alliance Data Systems (ADS).
4. Japan Return from 1994 to Present —

5. Obama signs order for $109 billion in 2014 sequester cuts — President Barack Obama signs order for the next $109 billion of the reductions to military and domestic programs for the year starting on October 1, 2013.
6. Retail sales post biggest drop in 9 months — Marketwatch, spending falls by 0.4% in March as most stores take a hit. Sales for January were also revised to show a 0.1% drop instead of a 0.2% increase, suggesting that first-quarter growth might not be as strong as forecast.
7. Cost of Cyprus bailout ‘rises to 23bn euros’ — The cost of the bailout for Cyprus has increased to 23bn euros ($30bn; £19.5bn), according to a draft document prepared by the country’s creditors. Cyprus will have to find 13bn euros to secure 10bn euros from the European Union and the IMF.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: