“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett

1. U.S. Unemployment Rose in November ​Despite Job Gains — Nonfarm payrolls increased 64,000 in November after declining 105,000 in October, adding to the choppiness seen in the labor market in recent months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday, continuing its upward climb as many out-of-work Americans struggled to land new jobs. The decline in October payrolls, which was the largest since the end of 2020, was due to a 162,000 plunge in federal government employment as workers who accepted the Trump administration’s deferred resignation offers officially dropped off payrolls.Fed officials are split over whether more cuts are needed next year. The median Fed official penciled in just one reduction in 2026, according to rate projections released alongside the decision, but some policymakers see no further cuts. Traders, meanwhile, have been counting on two.
2. October Retail Sales Fell Flat. Weak Car Sales Weighed On the Data— Retail sales were virtually unchanged in October from September, according to data released Tuesday by the Census Bureau. Economists polled by FactSet expected a 0.05% increase. Sales rose 3.5% on an annual basis. September’s headline retail sales were revised lower to a 0.1% monthly increase from a 0.2% increase previously. That weaker vehicle sales weighed on October’s figure—sales at car and parts dealers were down 1.6% from September—wasn’t a surprise. Many people rushed to buy a car earlier this year, fearing tariffs would push costs prohibitively higher later on.
3. US Core CPI Eases to Four-Year Low in Shutdown-Impacted Report — The core consumer price index, which excludes the often-volatile food and energy categories, increased 2.6% in November from a year ago, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Thursday. The overall CPI climbed 2.7% in November from a year ago. The longest-ever government shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting much of the October price data. That not only limited the agency’s ability to determine month-over-month changes for the broader measures of inflation, but some economists noted it likely impacted the annual November figures as well. Despite numerous caveats, the report offers some hope that inflationary pressures are easing after remaining stuck in a narrow range since early this year. The BLS said the core CPI rose just 0.2% over the two months ended in November, restrained by declines in costs of hotel stays, recreation and apparel. Prices of household furnishings and personal care products rose.
4. Mortgage Rates Are Falling but Owners Still Won’t Sell — Nearly 30 million households, or 54% of primary mortgage-holders, have mortgage rates at or below 4%. They were able to buy homes or refinance their mortgages when rates fell to 3% or lower in 2020 and 2021.
Now, many of those who want to move don’t feel it is worth it to buy a home and take on mortgage rates that have doubled. This “lock-in effect” has helped freeze the housing market for three straight years, suppressing the number of U.S. homes for sale and keeping inventory well below historic levels for most of that period. The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates this month but signaled it might be done with further rate cuts for now. Mortgage rates edged lower to 6.21% this week, holding near the one-year low reached in October, Freddie Mac said.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“The elements of good trading are (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses.” – Jesse Livermore.

1. Fed Cuts Rates With Three Dissents, Projects One Cut in 2026 — The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 Wednesday to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. It also subtly altered the wording of its statement suggesting greater uncertainty about when it might cut rates again. When asked if it were a foregone conclusion that the Fed’s next move would be a cut, Powell demurred, but added that he didn’t see a rate hike as any official’s base case. Wednesday’s dissents and the rate projections highlight divisions among policymakers that have emerged over whether weakness in the labor market or stubborn inflation represent the larger danger to the US economy.
2. Some Republicans Break With Leaders in Healthcare Fight — A growing chunk of Republicans in both the House and Senate are breaking with party leaders and saying the GOP should extend expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, seeing that as the only way to avert big cost increases for 20 million households next year and buy time for a bigger overhaul. Already, some GOP lawmakers have sponsored or signed onto bills that would extend the tax credits for one or more years, while including changes designed to crack down on fraud and limit eligibility to exclude higher-income households. They include Sens. Susan Collins (R., Maine), Jon Husted (R., Ohio) and Roger Marshall (R., Kan.)—all of whom are up for election next year—and vulnerable House Republicans like Reps. Rob Bresnahan (R., Pa.) and Mike Lawler (R., N.Y.).
3. US Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Shrinks to Smallest Since 2020 — The goods and services trade gap shrank nearly 11% from the prior month to $52.8 billion, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a $63.1 billion deficit. Large monthly swings in trade this year related to US implementation of tariffs have introduced similar volatility in the government’s measure of economic activity — gross domestic product. The September trade figures will help economists fine tune their estimates for third-quarter GDP.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

1. Payrolls at US Companies Fall by Most Since 2023, ADP Reports — The U.S. labor market slowdown intensified in November as private companies cut 32,000 workers, with small businesses hit the hardest, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. With worries intensifying over the domestic jobs picture, ADP indicated the issues were worse than anticipated. The payrolls decline marked a sharp step down from October, which saw an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 positions, and was well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate from economists for an increase of 40,000.
Larger businesses, entailing companies with 50 or more employees, actually reported a net gain of 90,000 workers. The biggest loss came in professional and business services, which saw a decline of 26,000. Others shedding jobs included information services (-20,000), manufacturing (-18,000), and financial activities and construction, both of which saw losses of 9,000.
2. China’s Services-Sector Activity Growth Slows — The RatingDog general services purchasing managers index fell to 52.1 in November from 52.6 in October, marking the lowest level in five months, according to a statement released Wednesday. Service providers continued to cut staffing in November, though the pace of reduction slowed slightly. Companies surveyed by RatingDog remained optimistic about the outlook, but the future business activity expectations index fell to its lowest level since April.
3. Trump Tightens Work Permits for Migrants, Expanding Crackdown on Legal Immigration — Work permits issued to immigrants who have applied for asylum or a range of other humanitarian programs will now be valid for 18 months rather than five years, under a new policy announced Thursday by the Trump administration. In the past week, Trump has called for a broad “reverse migration” of legal immigrants in the U.S., including from countries such as Afghanistan. A day after the shooting, Trump posted to his Truth Social platform that he planned to “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries,” and his administration is working on expanding the list of countries subject to a travel ban. The shortened expiration dates for work permits will primarily affect immigrants seeking asylum or other forms of humanitarian protections, including refugees, immigrants who have won their asylum cases, or who have another form of deportation relief known as withholding of removal.
4. Core Index Decelerates for the First Since April — The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, indicated a 0.2% monthly rise while the annual rate was 2.8%. The monthly rate was in line with the Dow Jones consensus, but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower. The core annual rate edged down from 2.9% in August. In addition, headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate also at 2.8%, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Both of those readings were in line with expectations though the annual rate was up 0.1 percentage point from August. Goods prices surged 0.5% on the month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to work their way through the economy. Services prices were up just 0.2%. Food rose 0.4% while energy was up 1.7%.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

1. U.S. Retail Sales Rose 0.2% in September, Below Expectations — Purchases at stores, restaurants and online increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was below the 0.3% increase economists had expected, and marked a cooling from the 0.6% increase clocked in August. September’s retail sales report suggested consumers closed out the summer months on a weaker footing. Consumers reined in spending in a number of key categories, including vehicles, electronics, clothing, sporting goods and at online retailers. Still, spending at bars and restaurants rose a solid 0.7%, and spending at personal care and grocery stores also rose.
2. Airbus issues major A320 recall after flight-control incident — Airbus said in a statement a recent incident involving an A320-family aircraft had revealed that intense solar radiation may corrupt data critical to the functioning of flight controls. For about two-thirds of the affected jets, the recall will result in a relatively brief grounding as airlines revert to a previous software version, industry sources said. But the scale of the operation is expected to cause significant disruption, emerging just ahead of the busiest travel weekend of the year in the United States.
3. Trump Says He Is Canceling Biden Executive Orders Signed With Autopen — President Trump said Friday he was revoking all executive orders former President Joe Biden signed with an autopen, escalating his battle with his predecessor over the use of the signature proxy device. Both Democratic and Republican presidents have used autopens, devices that replicate signatures. Trump has said autopens shouldn’t be used on important documents. He said earlier this year that he has used an autopen for unimportant papers.
Presidents are legally allowed to undo executive orders signed by their predecessors. Trump could potentially revoke Biden’s legislation or the dozens of pardons he issued, including to family members. Biden also gave thousands of commutations at the end of his presidency. Still, legal scholars say there is no mechanism to undo clemency after it is granted.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Trade what you see, not what you think.” – Anonymous

1. Job Losses Slowed in Private Sector Heading Into November, Weekly ADP Data Indicates — The U.S. shed an average of 2,500 private-sector roles in the four weeks ended Nov. 1, payroll processor ADP said, a sign job losses slowed heading into this month. For the four-week period ending a week earlier, weekly job losses averaged 14,250 positions, ADP said, in an update to earlier figures. ADP recently started issuing these estimates, which give a four-week moving average of changes in U.S. employment. They are published with a two-week time lag.
The estimates, which don’t cover government workers, offer a gauge of the labor market while the government shutdown has delayed the release of some other indicators. The Labor Department plans to release its September payrolls report on Thursday.
2. Nvidia Profits Soar, Soothing Investor Jitters Over AI Boom — Sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and exceeding consensus estimates from analysts polled by FactSet. The company increased its guidance for the current quarter, estimating that sales will reach $65 billion—analysts had predicted revenue of $62.1 billion for the quarter. Quarterly net income was $31.9 billion, 65% higher than a year earlier. Sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell line of graphics processing units—its most powerful chips yet—were “off the charts,” Huang said. Revenue from Nvidia’s data center segment set a record at $51.2 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of $49 billion.
3. Fed’s October Rate Decision Fueled Pushback Over Possible December Cut — The Fed voted 10-2 to cut rates by a quarter point last month to a range between 3.75% and 4%. But the minutes showed that several officials—probably presidents of Fed banks who participated but don’t have a vote on the rate-setting body—opposed last month’s decision to lower rates. Moreover, other officials who backed the rate cut would have also supported taking no action, according to the minutes. The minutes showed a committee as divided as any has been in years over what to do at its next gathering. The tersely written account said that “many” officials thought a rate cut wouldn’t be warranted in December—a group that outnumbered the “several” that thought a reduction “could well be appropriate.” Investors, who once saw a rate cut at the Dec. 9-10 meeting as a nearly done deal, had viewed it as a tossup in recent days. Market-implied odds of a cut tumbled to around one in three after the Labor Department on Wednesday said October employment data, originally scheduled for release on Nov. 7, wouldn’t be published until after that meeting.
4. BLS Axes October CPI Report, Sets Dec. 18 for November Data — BLS said it can acquire parts of the price data for the month, and “where possible” will publish October values in the November release. The November CPI report will now be published Dec. 18, after the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year. The announcement follows the BLS’s decision to cancel the October employment report for similar data collection issues. Economists had flagged the CPI as one of the most at risk of being canceled given the labor-intensive way in which much of the data is collected. The BLS noted it can retroactively collect most of the data that aren’t derived from surveys.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Do more of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t”

1. White House Says October Jobs, Inflation Reports Unlikely to Be Released — the six-week government shutdown largely halted the release of government data that Wall Street and economic policymakers rely on to measure the economy’s health. Though the shutdown is expected to end soon, the White House indicated the reports on inflation and employment for last month will be lost due to the long closure of federal agencies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics hasn’t yet said when it is likely to start catching up on the backlog of important economic reports, or which ones might be compromised by the shutdown. A BLS spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for commented.
2. Record US Government Shutdown Ends as Trump Signs Spending Bill — President Donald Trump signed legislation to end the longest government shutdown in US history, marking the official conclusion to a 43-day impasse that halted food aid to millions of households, canceled thousands of flights and forced federal workers to go unpaid for more than a month. However it could still take days, or even weeks, for the federal bureaucracy to fully restart and dig out of the backlog after being closed since Oct. 1. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told reporters Wednesday he anticipated it could take as long as a week to start lifting flight restrictions at major airports.
3. October Jobs Report to Skip Unemployment Rate — the October jobs report, originally scheduled for publication by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Nov. 7, was one of many economic releases to not come out during the government shutdown. No data collection happened once the shutdown began as workers were furloughed. Statistical agencies, as well as other government departments, are slowly getting back up and running since Trump signed a law restoring funding. BLS, which will probably put out an updated release schedule soon, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
4. U.S. and Switzerland reach trade deal to lower tariffs to 15% — Duties will be reduced to 15%, the Swiss government said in a post on X, adding that further details will be announced. As part of the deal, Swiss companies have pledged to invest some $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028, which includes funding for education and training, according to a statement by the Swiss government. The deal means the country-specific tariff imposed on Swiss goods will match the rate levied on those brought to the U.S. from the European Union.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes

1. US Companies Announce Most October Job Cuts in Over 20 Years == Companies announced 153,074 job cuts last month, almost triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of cellphones was similarly disruptive, said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. The numbers are weak no matter how they’re spliced. Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the most since the pandemic. In the same period, US-based employers have announced the fewest hiring plans since 2011. Seasonal hiring plans through October are the lowest since Challenger started tracking them in 2012. In recent weeks, Target Corp. announced plans to eliminate 1,800 roles, or about 8% of corporate jobs in its first major restructuring in years. Amazon.com Inc. said it would slash 14,000 corporate jobs — following a warning from its CEO that AI will shrink the company’s workforce — while Paramount Skydance Corp. axed 1,000 workers. Other companies cutting corporate jobs include Starbucks Corp., Delta Air Lines Inc., CarMax Inc., Rivian Automotive Inc. and Molson Coors Beverage Co., which cut about 9% of its salaried workforce.
2. US to Cut 10% of Flights on Shutdown, Spare Routes Abroad — The US will cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets across the country, though international routes will be spared, to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers and the aviation system during what is now the longest government shutdown in history. The reductions are expected to be staggered, with US carriers informed Wednesday night that they should plan to cut flight volumes by 4% on Friday and 5% on Saturday, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. That will build to 10% sometime next week, and international flights won’t be affected, they said. However, the situation is fluid, and the plan could still change, the people said.
3. Tesla Shareholders Approve Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package — Tesla TSLA -3.50%decrease; red down pointing triangle shareholders approved a record-setting pay package for Chief Executive Elon Musk, a plan designed to motivate the world’s richest man with as much as $1 trillion in additional stock. Flanked by dancing humanoid robots on a stage bathed in pink and blue light at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, headquarters, Musk thanked the crowd of shareholders who supported the pay package with more than 75% of the votes cast. Musk had said he wanted a big enough ownership stake in Tesla to be comfortable that the “robot army” he was developing didn’t fall into the wrong hands, but not so large that he couldn’t be fired if he went “crazy.”
On another proposal that would authorize the Tesla board to invest in Musk’s artificial-intelligence company, xAI, Tesla General Counsel Brandon Ehrhart said more shares had been voted for the proposal than against, but there were many abstentions. He said the board would consider its next steps.
4. US Consumer Sentiment Declines to Near Lowest on Record — The preliminary November sentiment index dropped 3.3 points to 50.3, just above a June 2022 reading of 50 that was the weakest in University of Michigan data back to 1978. The gauge was lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A measure of current economic conditions slumped 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3 as anxiety mounted about the impact from the government shutdown. While spontaneous mentions of high prices increased for a fifth month, inflation expectations eased over the longer term. Consumers saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.6% over the next five to 10 years, a three-month low. Price expectations for the next year edged up, the data issued showed.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

” There will not be any posting for the week of Oct 31 ’25 — we are away for some needed R&R”

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has rallied 10% or more year-to-date through October 40 times, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Whenever that happened prior to 2025, November has seen an average gain of 2.6%, they noted.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation – being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong.” – Jesse Livermore

1. China’s Economy Expands at Slowest Pace in a Year — China said its gross domestic product expanded 4.8% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier, down from 5.2% growth in the second quarter. Over the first nine months of the year, China’s economy expanded 5.2% from the year-earlier period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That means that Beijing is largely on track to hit its official target of around 5.0% growth for 2025.
Nonetheless, the picture of decelerating growth may prompt Beijing to step up support for the domestic economy as it holds a firm line in its trade fight with the U.S. Tensions between the two superpowers have blown up in recent weeks, the latest twist in a tumultuous year marked by escalating tit-for-tat tariffs and on-again-off-again truces. After Beijing tightened controls over rare earths earlier this month, President Trump threatened an additional 100% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods.
2. US Government Shutdown Is Now Second Longest in History — The US government shutdown, now in its 22nd day, has become the second-longest in history as the stalemate between the two parties over expiring health-care subsidies persists. With President Donald Trump expected to leave later this week for a trip to Asia, lawmakers and congressional aides say they see a real possibility the closure could extend into November and surpass the 35-day shutdown of Trump’s first term. A meeting at the White House between Trump and Senate Republicans appeared to only strengthen the GOP resolve to refuse to negotiate with Democrats, who have demanded as their price for reopening the government that Congress provide relief to 22 million Americans whose health-care premiums will spike in January.
3. China’s Soybean Feud With Trump Leaves US Farmers With Huge Crops and Few Buyers — Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods in March, effectively slamming the door shut on US soybean imports for commercial buyers before the harvest even began. The move has given China leverage in its trade war with President Donald Trump by squeezing the farmers who form a key part of his base. A country that last year purchased $13 billion of US beans — more than 20% of the entire crop — for animal feed and cooking oil officially still hasn’t booked a single shipment from this fall’s bounty. Criticizing Trump doesn’t come easily to many farmers. But as soybeans pile up in silos and storage bins, it’s hard not to feel like collateral damage in a fight they didn’t pick. They worry that even if a deal is reached, the war will inflict lasting harm, with China determined to buy more soy from Brazil and Argentina rather than depend on the US. And while they’d accept government financial help during the trade fight, they’d rather be able to sell their beans.
4. US Inflation Data Comes in Soft, Building Case for More Fed Cuts — The core consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from August, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. That was the slowest pace in three months and restrained by the smallest increase in a key measure of housing costs since early 2021. In the absence of other official reports during the government shutdown, the highly anticipated reading is a welcome surprise, particularly for several policymakers who are leery of cutting rates further. While the central bank was already widely expected to lower borrowing costs at next week’s meeting, investors are betting the report will help convince officials that they can do so again in December — especially if they don’t get another CPI report next month.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes

1. Powell Keeps Fed on Track to Lower Rates Again — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left the central bank on track to reduce interest rates again at its meeting later this month by highlighting weakness in the job market despite lingering concerns over sticky inflation. Separately, Powell hinted the central bank could be approaching the end of a more than three-year campaign to shrink a portfolio of Treasury securities that it acquired to provide stimulus after the 2020 pandemic upended the economy.
2. India Willing to Spend $15 Billion on US Oil Amid Trade Talks — India has the capacity to purchase an additional $15 billion of oil from the US, a senior commerce ministry official said Wednesday, signaling New Delhi’s intent to speed up trade talks and get a deal. The move could bridge the $42.7 billion trade surplus India enjoys and assuage President Donald Trump who has slapped the South Asian nation with a punitive 50% tariff, partly due to its purchase of Russian oil. Indian officials are in the US to meet counterparts and are hoping to secure a deal as early as next month, Bloomberg News reported.
New Delhi’s broad strategy includes reducing the trade surplus by buying more American goods, improving access to Indian markets and easing trade barriers. It is considering roughly $40 billion of big-ticket purchases such as defense and oil from the US to narrow the surplus.
3. Credit-Card Data Show Softer US Retail Sales as Shutdown Delays Report — Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated the September retail sales report, initially slated for release earlier Thursday but delayed because of the government shutdown, would have shown a smaller advance in the value of purchases after 0.6% increases in the prior two months. After assessing a broad array of high-frequency spending data such as credit-card borrowing and same-store sales, economists say shoppers dialed back purchases after retail activity increased at a robust 4.1% annualized pace in the prior three months. Bloomberg Second Measure, which analyzes credit and debit card data, showed less appetite last month for discretionary items such as furniture, electronics and appliances. Credit-card data from Bank of America, meanwhile, also shows cooler demand.
4. Unemployment Claims Filed by Federal Workers Shoot Higher — Data collected by state unemployment insurance program offices show that last week 7,244 federal workers filed an initial unemployment claim. That was up from 3,272 the previous week, and 588 in the last full week before the current government shutdown, which started Oct. 1. The number of federal workers who had already filed for unemployment, and were continuing to claim benefits, rose to 9,430 from 8,672 the previous week.
The jump in claims likely reflects two forces. The shutdown has prompted many temporarily furloughed workers to file for unemployment. And some of the workers who took the Trump administration’s deferred-resignation plan—and recently lost their paychecks—might be filing for unemployment.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: