“the three stages of a bull market”: the first stage, when only a few unusually perceptive people believe things will get better, the second stage, when most investors realize that improvement is actually taking place, and the third stage, when everyone concludes things will get better forever.” ― Howard Marks

1. Pfizer’s Announces Covid-19 Vaccine — Pfizer and partner BioNTech announced early and not yet complete data from their Phase three Covid-19 vaccine trial. It is “more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19” in trial participants, according to the release. The companies are gathering additional safety and efficacy data and preparing to submit them to global regulatory authorities for approval. Regulatory filings are expected later this month. The Phase three trial enrolled more than 43,000 participants. Phase three trials are typically the final phase before the FDA considers a drug or vaccine for approval. Pfizer plans to produce 50 million doses in 2020 and 1.3 billion doses in 2021.
2. Supreme Court Hears Arguments Against Affordable Care Act –tThe Supreme Court heard arguments in a case some fear could end the Affordable Care Act. At least two justices seemed open to keeping the majority of the bill. The case centers on the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate. Originally deemed constitutional because the penalty was ruled a tax by a majority of the Supreme Court, Republican attorneys general from 18 states argue the 2017 removal of the penalty makes it no longer a tax.
If the Supreme Court agrees, the bigger question would be whether or not the individual mandate could be severable from the rest of the bill. Republicans argue it can’t, while Democrats disagree and warn millions of Americans would lose health care and pre-existing condition protections amid a pandemic.
3. Covid Hot Spots Show Signs Europe’s New Wave May Be Cresting — With France, Spain, the U.K. and Italy — alongside Russia, all recording more than 1 million cases, the headlines remain grim. As the U.S. surpasses 10 million infections, Europe has been another epicenter of the pandemic’s autumn surge. Over the past week, however, the number of new cases has plateaued or begun to ease in the U.K., Germany and France. Harder-hit small countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic have posted big declines in daily infection rates. Belgium’s seven-day average of about 5,200 new cases, for example, was down from peak levels of more than 20,000 a day less than two weeks ago.
4. Cases Surge While Stimulus Talks Stall and Targeted Lockdowns Continue — as the Midwest deals with a surge of Covid-19 infections cases, more states and cities are bringing back restrictions. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot issued a 30-day stay-at-home advisory for the city, beginning on Monday. The Chicago mayor pointed to an “alarming and ongoing surge” in cases. Illinois saw 12,000 new cases Thursday, according to the Covid Tracking Project, the most of any state. Ohio’s Republican Gov. Mike DeWine on brought back a mask mandate for going out in public. This time, businesses must also have signs at the entrance stating masks are required. They must also make sure employees and customers wear masks. The state had 7,000 cases Thursday. In addition to Illinois and Ohio, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Florida all saw more than 5,000 new cases late last week. Bloomberg reported that the White House is yielding stimulus negotiations to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Though talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sparked some optimism for investors in October, hopes for a deal before next year have stalled.
5. Moderna Vaccine Found Highly Effective at Preventing Covid — Moderna Inc. said its Covid-19 vaccine was 94.5% effective in a preliminary analysis of a large late-stage clinical trial. The highly positive readout comes just a week after a similar shot developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE was found to be more than 90% effective in an interim analysis. Both shots rely on a technology called messenger RNA that has never been used to build an approved vaccine. Moderna said that new stability data showed its vaccine is stable at refrigerator temperatures for 30 days, much longer than a previously estimated seven days. For longer-term storage, it can be kept in freezers, though it doesn’t need the special facilities required for the Pfizer vaccine. Both the Moderna vaccine and Pfizer’s are based on mRNA technology designed to transform the body’s own cells into vaccine making factories. Once injected, the vaccines instruct cells to make copies of the coronavirus’s spike protein, stimulating the creation of protective antibodies.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: