“Every once in a while, an up-or-down-leg goes on for a long time and/or to a great extreme and people start to say “this time it’s different.” They cite the changes in geopolitics, institutions, technology or behaviour that have rendered the “old rules” obsolete. They make investment decisions that extrapolate the recent trend. And then it turns out that the old rules still apply and the cycle resumes. In the end, trees don’t grow to the sky, and few things go to zero.”
― Howard Marks

1. Barrett Confirmed to Supreme Court — Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation by the Senate was a touchstone accomplishment for President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans that solidifies a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court just eight days before the U.S. election. The Senate confirmed Barrett on a partisan 52-48 vote, and Justice Clarence Thomas administered the first of two required oaths to Barrett on the South Lawn of the White House a short time later with Trump looking on. Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the second oath in a private ceremony at the Supreme Court. Barrett may be asked to weigh in on cases that would determine the outcome of a close election, and is expected to vote on whether the Affordable Care Act is constitutional soon after she joins the court.
2. U.S. Infections Continue to Climb — Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have hit new highs, with the seven-day average of additional daily infections hitting 68,767 , according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. This surge has hit Midwest and Rocky Mountain states the worst and comes at a particularly worrying time for public health officials as temperatures fall and people are more likely to congregate indoors, where Covid-19 is spread more easily. During the summer surge in the U.S., which hit Sun Belt states the hardest, the seven-day average peaked at just under 67,000 in late July. One potential vector for infections has, so far, not materialized. Outbreaks related to primary schools appear to be extremely limited, and the partial reopening of the biggest school district in the country in New York City has resulted in just 28 positive tests for Covid-19 out of 16,298 randomized tests.
3. Germany, France Impose Strict Month-Long Curbs to Rein in Virus — Germany and France will clamp down on movement for at least a month, coming close to the stringent lockdowns in the spring as Europe seeks to regain control of the rapid spread of the coronavirus. The European Union’s two biggest economies will shutter bars, restaurants and non-essential services, while allowing schools and most businesses to operate. The approach by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeks to strike a balance between protecting public health and avoiding another debilitating blow to the economy.
4. Covid-19 Vaccine Won’t Be Available Until January — Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease doctor, said a vaccine to help control the coronavirus outbreak isn’t likely to be available in the U.S. until January. The trials are designed to run until a predetermined number of people who are enrolled get sick. The studies currently underway are unlikely to hit those benchmarks until sometime in December. Once the data are available, the companies must analyze the findings, file with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use and participate in an advisory committee hearing. There are five companies in the final stages of study for a coronavirus vaccine, with Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. having fully enrolled their trials, Fauci said. At least one and maybe two of the companies will have enough safety data and perhaps even sufficient prolonged efficacy findings to apply for emergency use of their vaccines by December.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: