“If I had to characterize the market in 2015, I would call it a ‘trading sardine market’ not an ‘eating sardine market’.” — Doug Kass

1. S&P500 in Rising Wedge Chart Formation — the current chart shows the S&P500 in an in-decisive pattern. Breakout occurs when the S&P500 breaks decisive upside above 2120 or breaks to downside below 2085. StockCharts defined rising wedge chart formation as
“The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher highs, and higher lows, keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to estimate the decline – other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to forecast price targets.”

2. U.S. Factory Orders Climb 2.1% in March — orders for durable goods — products meant to last at least three years — jumped 4.4% in March, the Commerce Department reported.
3. 10-Year Yields Spiking Globally — a worldwide sell-off in government bonds deepened last week, buoyed by rising German Bund yields that recently hit record highs and narrowed their gap with U.S. Treasuries. Benchmark 10-year Bunds now trade at 0.53%, having hit a record low of 0.05% last month, when many expected them to turn negative.
4. The Third Year of the Presidential Cycle — historically, the third year of the Presidential Cycle been the equity market’s best year in terms of performance, but with a gain of less than 3% YTD, 2015 has gotten off to a slow start.
Below is the chart which lists the S&P 500′s YTD returns in the third year of each Presidential Election Cycle since 1931.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: