“Trade what you see, not what you think.” – Anonymous

1. Job Losses Slowed in Private Sector Heading Into November, Weekly ADP Data Indicates — The U.S. shed an average of 2,500 private-sector roles in the four weeks ended Nov. 1, payroll processor ADP said, a sign job losses slowed heading into this month. For the four-week period ending a week earlier, weekly job losses averaged 14,250 positions, ADP said, in an update to earlier figures. ADP recently started issuing these estimates, which give a four-week moving average of changes in U.S. employment. They are published with a two-week time lag.
The estimates, which don’t cover government workers, offer a gauge of the labor market while the government shutdown has delayed the release of some other indicators. The Labor Department plans to release its September payrolls report on Thursday.
2. Nvidia Profits Soar, Soothing Investor Jitters Over AI Boom — Sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and exceeding consensus estimates from analysts polled by FactSet. The company increased its guidance for the current quarter, estimating that sales will reach $65 billion—analysts had predicted revenue of $62.1 billion for the quarter. Quarterly net income was $31.9 billion, 65% higher than a year earlier. Sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell line of graphics processing units—its most powerful chips yet—were “off the charts,” Huang said. Revenue from Nvidia’s data center segment set a record at $51.2 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of $49 billion.
3. Fed’s October Rate Decision Fueled Pushback Over Possible December Cut — The Fed voted 10-2 to cut rates by a quarter point last month to a range between 3.75% and 4%. But the minutes showed that several officials—probably presidents of Fed banks who participated but don’t have a vote on the rate-setting body—opposed last month’s decision to lower rates. Moreover, other officials who backed the rate cut would have also supported taking no action, according to the minutes. The minutes showed a committee as divided as any has been in years over what to do at its next gathering. The tersely written account said that “many” officials thought a rate cut wouldn’t be warranted in December—a group that outnumbered the “several” that thought a reduction “could well be appropriate.” Investors, who once saw a rate cut at the Dec. 9-10 meeting as a nearly done deal, had viewed it as a tossup in recent days. Market-implied odds of a cut tumbled to around one in three after the Labor Department on Wednesday said October employment data, originally scheduled for release on Nov. 7, wouldn’t be published until after that meeting.
4. BLS Axes October CPI Report, Sets Dec. 18 for November Data — BLS said it can acquire parts of the price data for the month, and “where possible” will publish October values in the November release. The November CPI report will now be published Dec. 18, after the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year. The announcement follows the BLS’s decision to cancel the October employment report for similar data collection issues. Economists had flagged the CPI as one of the most at risk of being canceled given the labor-intensive way in which much of the data is collected. The BLS noted it can retroactively collect most of the data that aren’t derived from surveys.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Do more of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t”

1. White House Says October Jobs, Inflation Reports Unlikely to Be Released — the six-week government shutdown largely halted the release of government data that Wall Street and economic policymakers rely on to measure the economy’s health. Though the shutdown is expected to end soon, the White House indicated the reports on inflation and employment for last month will be lost due to the long closure of federal agencies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics hasn’t yet said when it is likely to start catching up on the backlog of important economic reports, or which ones might be compromised by the shutdown. A BLS spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for commented.
2. Record US Government Shutdown Ends as Trump Signs Spending Bill — President Donald Trump signed legislation to end the longest government shutdown in US history, marking the official conclusion to a 43-day impasse that halted food aid to millions of households, canceled thousands of flights and forced federal workers to go unpaid for more than a month. However it could still take days, or even weeks, for the federal bureaucracy to fully restart and dig out of the backlog after being closed since Oct. 1. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told reporters Wednesday he anticipated it could take as long as a week to start lifting flight restrictions at major airports.
3. October Jobs Report to Skip Unemployment Rate — the October jobs report, originally scheduled for publication by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Nov. 7, was one of many economic releases to not come out during the government shutdown. No data collection happened once the shutdown began as workers were furloughed. Statistical agencies, as well as other government departments, are slowly getting back up and running since Trump signed a law restoring funding. BLS, which will probably put out an updated release schedule soon, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
4. U.S. and Switzerland reach trade deal to lower tariffs to 15% — Duties will be reduced to 15%, the Swiss government said in a post on X, adding that further details will be announced. As part of the deal, Swiss companies have pledged to invest some $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028, which includes funding for education and training, according to a statement by the Swiss government. The deal means the country-specific tariff imposed on Swiss goods will match the rate levied on those brought to the U.S. from the European Union.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes

1. US Companies Announce Most October Job Cuts in Over 20 Years == Companies announced 153,074 job cuts last month, almost triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of cellphones was similarly disruptive, said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. The numbers are weak no matter how they’re spliced. Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the most since the pandemic. In the same period, US-based employers have announced the fewest hiring plans since 2011. Seasonal hiring plans through October are the lowest since Challenger started tracking them in 2012. In recent weeks, Target Corp. announced plans to eliminate 1,800 roles, or about 8% of corporate jobs in its first major restructuring in years. Amazon.com Inc. said it would slash 14,000 corporate jobs — following a warning from its CEO that AI will shrink the company’s workforce — while Paramount Skydance Corp. axed 1,000 workers. Other companies cutting corporate jobs include Starbucks Corp., Delta Air Lines Inc., CarMax Inc., Rivian Automotive Inc. and Molson Coors Beverage Co., which cut about 9% of its salaried workforce.
2. US to Cut 10% of Flights on Shutdown, Spare Routes Abroad — The US will cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets across the country, though international routes will be spared, to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers and the aviation system during what is now the longest government shutdown in history. The reductions are expected to be staggered, with US carriers informed Wednesday night that they should plan to cut flight volumes by 4% on Friday and 5% on Saturday, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. That will build to 10% sometime next week, and international flights won’t be affected, they said. However, the situation is fluid, and the plan could still change, the people said.
3. Tesla Shareholders Approve Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package — Tesla TSLA -3.50%decrease; red down pointing triangle shareholders approved a record-setting pay package for Chief Executive Elon Musk, a plan designed to motivate the world’s richest man with as much as $1 trillion in additional stock. Flanked by dancing humanoid robots on a stage bathed in pink and blue light at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, headquarters, Musk thanked the crowd of shareholders who supported the pay package with more than 75% of the votes cast. Musk had said he wanted a big enough ownership stake in Tesla to be comfortable that the “robot army” he was developing didn’t fall into the wrong hands, but not so large that he couldn’t be fired if he went “crazy.”
On another proposal that would authorize the Tesla board to invest in Musk’s artificial-intelligence company, xAI, Tesla General Counsel Brandon Ehrhart said more shares had been voted for the proposal than against, but there were many abstentions. He said the board would consider its next steps.
4. US Consumer Sentiment Declines to Near Lowest on Record — The preliminary November sentiment index dropped 3.3 points to 50.3, just above a June 2022 reading of 50 that was the weakest in University of Michigan data back to 1978. The gauge was lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A measure of current economic conditions slumped 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3 as anxiety mounted about the impact from the government shutdown. While spontaneous mentions of high prices increased for a fifth month, inflation expectations eased over the longer term. Consumers saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.6% over the next five to 10 years, a three-month low. Price expectations for the next year edged up, the data issued showed.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

” There will not be any posting for the week of Oct 31 ’25 — we are away for some needed R&R”

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has rallied 10% or more year-to-date through October 40 times, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Whenever that happened prior to 2025, November has seen an average gain of 2.6%, they noted.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation – being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong.” – Jesse Livermore

1. China’s Economy Expands at Slowest Pace in a Year — China said its gross domestic product expanded 4.8% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier, down from 5.2% growth in the second quarter. Over the first nine months of the year, China’s economy expanded 5.2% from the year-earlier period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That means that Beijing is largely on track to hit its official target of around 5.0% growth for 2025.
Nonetheless, the picture of decelerating growth may prompt Beijing to step up support for the domestic economy as it holds a firm line in its trade fight with the U.S. Tensions between the two superpowers have blown up in recent weeks, the latest twist in a tumultuous year marked by escalating tit-for-tat tariffs and on-again-off-again truces. After Beijing tightened controls over rare earths earlier this month, President Trump threatened an additional 100% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods.
2. US Government Shutdown Is Now Second Longest in History — The US government shutdown, now in its 22nd day, has become the second-longest in history as the stalemate between the two parties over expiring health-care subsidies persists. With President Donald Trump expected to leave later this week for a trip to Asia, lawmakers and congressional aides say they see a real possibility the closure could extend into November and surpass the 35-day shutdown of Trump’s first term. A meeting at the White House between Trump and Senate Republicans appeared to only strengthen the GOP resolve to refuse to negotiate with Democrats, who have demanded as their price for reopening the government that Congress provide relief to 22 million Americans whose health-care premiums will spike in January.
3. China’s Soybean Feud With Trump Leaves US Farmers With Huge Crops and Few Buyers — Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods in March, effectively slamming the door shut on US soybean imports for commercial buyers before the harvest even began. The move has given China leverage in its trade war with President Donald Trump by squeezing the farmers who form a key part of his base. A country that last year purchased $13 billion of US beans — more than 20% of the entire crop — for animal feed and cooking oil officially still hasn’t booked a single shipment from this fall’s bounty. Criticizing Trump doesn’t come easily to many farmers. But as soybeans pile up in silos and storage bins, it’s hard not to feel like collateral damage in a fight they didn’t pick. They worry that even if a deal is reached, the war will inflict lasting harm, with China determined to buy more soy from Brazil and Argentina rather than depend on the US. And while they’d accept government financial help during the trade fight, they’d rather be able to sell their beans.
4. US Inflation Data Comes in Soft, Building Case for More Fed Cuts — The core consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from August, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. That was the slowest pace in three months and restrained by the smallest increase in a key measure of housing costs since early 2021. In the absence of other official reports during the government shutdown, the highly anticipated reading is a welcome surprise, particularly for several policymakers who are leery of cutting rates further. While the central bank was already widely expected to lower borrowing costs at next week’s meeting, investors are betting the report will help convince officials that they can do so again in December — especially if they don’t get another CPI report next month.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes

1. Powell Keeps Fed on Track to Lower Rates Again — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left the central bank on track to reduce interest rates again at its meeting later this month by highlighting weakness in the job market despite lingering concerns over sticky inflation. Separately, Powell hinted the central bank could be approaching the end of a more than three-year campaign to shrink a portfolio of Treasury securities that it acquired to provide stimulus after the 2020 pandemic upended the economy.
2. India Willing to Spend $15 Billion on US Oil Amid Trade Talks — India has the capacity to purchase an additional $15 billion of oil from the US, a senior commerce ministry official said Wednesday, signaling New Delhi’s intent to speed up trade talks and get a deal. The move could bridge the $42.7 billion trade surplus India enjoys and assuage President Donald Trump who has slapped the South Asian nation with a punitive 50% tariff, partly due to its purchase of Russian oil. Indian officials are in the US to meet counterparts and are hoping to secure a deal as early as next month, Bloomberg News reported.
New Delhi’s broad strategy includes reducing the trade surplus by buying more American goods, improving access to Indian markets and easing trade barriers. It is considering roughly $40 billion of big-ticket purchases such as defense and oil from the US to narrow the surplus.
3. Credit-Card Data Show Softer US Retail Sales as Shutdown Delays Report — Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated the September retail sales report, initially slated for release earlier Thursday but delayed because of the government shutdown, would have shown a smaller advance in the value of purchases after 0.6% increases in the prior two months. After assessing a broad array of high-frequency spending data such as credit-card borrowing and same-store sales, economists say shoppers dialed back purchases after retail activity increased at a robust 4.1% annualized pace in the prior three months. Bloomberg Second Measure, which analyzes credit and debit card data, showed less appetite last month for discretionary items such as furniture, electronics and appliances. Credit-card data from Bank of America, meanwhile, also shows cooler demand.
4. Unemployment Claims Filed by Federal Workers Shoot Higher — Data collected by state unemployment insurance program offices show that last week 7,244 federal workers filed an initial unemployment claim. That was up from 3,272 the previous week, and 588 in the last full week before the current government shutdown, which started Oct. 1. The number of federal workers who had already filed for unemployment, and were continuing to claim benefits, rose to 9,430 from 8,672 the previous week.
The jump in claims likely reflects two forces. The shutdown has prompted many temporarily furloughed workers to file for unemployment. And some of the workers who took the Trump administration’s deferred-resignation plan—and recently lost their paychecks—might be filing for unemployment.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“A good trader watches his capital as carefully as a professional scuba diver watches his air supply.” – Anonymous

1. Fed Minutes Reveal Divide Over Outlook for Interest-Rate Cuts — Officials largely agreed that a recent slowdown in job growth outweighed lingering concerns over sticky inflation when they cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point last month, to a range between 4% and 4.25%. Most of them thought “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of the year,” according to minutes of the Sept. 16-17 meeting. But the written account said a few of them thought a rate cut wasn’t necessary last month or could have also supported holding rates steady. The minutes indicated that support for a larger half-point cut was limited to one official, Fed governor Stephen Miran, who dissented from the decision. Miran was appointed by President Trump and sworn in on the morning of the first day of the meeting.
2. Trump Renews Threats With Congress Mired in a Shutdown Brawl — There was no sign of progress as government workers and military personnel prepare for missed paychecks and the general public begins to feel the effects of the closure on everything from taxpayer services to air travel. Trump has repeatedly threatened to fire federal workers, withhold back pay for some government employees and cut funding for programs favored by Democrats, but so far none have materialized. Some Republicans have questioned that strategy, saying it distracts from their messaging to blame Democrats for the shutdown effects. The Senate has canceled plans for a recess next week to stay in Washington if the shutdown persists, a person familiar with the decision said. Speaker Mike Johnson, however, has declined to call House lawmakers back since before the shutdown started, insisting that the House did its job by passing a stopgap funding bill that would reopen the government through Nov. 21.
3. Americans Are Falling Behind on Their Car Payments — Since the pandemic, buyers on auto-dealer lots have encountered surging sticker prices and smaller incentives from automakers to lessen the blow. To afford an automobile, more consumers, especially lower-income families, have resorted to buying used cars and taking out longer loans. The percentage of new-car buyers with credit scores below 650 was nearly 14% in September, roughly one in seven people, J.D. Power said last month. That is the highest for the comparable period since 2016. And the portion of subprime auto loans that are 60 days or more overdue on their payments hit a record of more than 6% this year, according to Fitch Ratings, while delinquency rates for other borrowers have remained relatively steady.
4. China Widens Rare Earth Curbs Ahead of Key Xi-Trump Meeting — China has unveiled broad new curbs on its exports of rare earths and other critical materials, as Beijing moves to shore up its trade war leverage ahead of a high-stakes meeting this month between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Overseas exporters of items that use even traces of certain rare earths sourced from China will now need an export license, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement Thursday, citing national security grounds. Certain equipment and technology for processing rare earths and making magnets will also be subject to controls, according to a separate release.Separately, the ministry later announced plans to expand export controls to a range of new products in measures that will be enforced from November 8. The newly-affected products include five more rare earths — holmium, europium, ytterbium, thulium, erbium — plus certain lithium-ion batteries, graphite anodes and synthetic diamonds, as well as some equipment for making those materials.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

The best trading strategy in the world won’t do you any good if you allow emotions to trump logic.

1. Government Shutdown Begins as Funding Lapses — Government funding lapsed early Wednesday morning after the White House and lawmakers failed to reach a spending deal, triggering a shutdown that is expected to halt some federal services and put hundreds of thousands of federal workers on furlough. The shutdown could be more consequential than those that have happened in the past. Trump administration officials have said they plan to use the shutdown to reduce the size of the government, moving to cut jobs across agencies. That effort is already being challenged in court. The funding lapse will have far-reaching ramifications. For the duration of the shutdown, the Labor Department is expected to pause the release of economic data—likely including a highly anticipated jobs report that was set to be made public on Friday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will stop analyzing surveillance data for reportable diseases. Many planned workspace-safety inspections will be canceled. And workers won’t trim grass and install headstones at national cemeteries.
2. U.S. Factory Activity Contracts at Slower Pace — The Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday that its purchasing managers’ index of manufacturing activity edged up to 49.1 in September from 48.7 in August. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected an index of 49.0.
With the reading still below 50, it points to contraction in activity in the sector for a seventh month in a row, though a score above 42.3 on the index generally tallies with expansion in the wider U.S. economy. However, the combined drops in the indexes for new orders and inventories exceeded the increase in the production index, rendering the overall improvement negligible, she said.
3. Trump Eyes Firing ‘Thousands’ of Federal Workers Over Shutdown — President Donald Trump is weighing slashing “thousands” of federal jobs ahead of a meeting with his budget director, Russell Vought, as the White House looks to ratchet up pressure on Democrats to end a government shutdown that has entered its second day. Republicans have sought to use the threat of permanent cuts to the federal bureaucracy to encourage Democrats to vote to reopen the government, and the White House has said firings could happen imminently. But some budget experts have argued that spending money to conduct permanent layoffs during a shutdown is illegal.
4. Trump Explores Bailout of at Least $10 Billion for U.S. Farmers — President Trump is considering providing $10 billion or more in aid to U.S. farmers as the agriculture sector warns of economic fallout from his far-reaching tariffs, according to people familiar with the discussions. The president and his team are weighing using tariff revenue to fund much of the aid, the people said, adding that distribution of the money could start in the coming months. A senior administration official said the discussions have centered on $10 billion to $14 billion in aid. The aid likely would go toward helping soybean producers, as well as other parts of the farm economy. Trump said earlier this week that he planned to push Chinese leader Xi Jinping to buy U.S. soybeans to help struggling American farmers. The two leaders are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of a summit in South Korea in the coming weeks. A deal with China to buy soybeans could change Trump’s calculation about providing aid to farmers, the official said.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Do More of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t”

1. US New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Jump Over 20% in Broad Advance — New-home sales in the US unexpectedly surged in August to the fastest pace since early 2022, likely lifted by builders’ rampant price cuts and sales incentives. The surge in demand helped put a significant dent in what’s been a vast oversupply of new homes on the market. Last month, the inventory of new homes for sale decreased to 490,000 units, the lowest this year.
2. US Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in Nearly Two Years on Consumer Spending — Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a revised 3.8% annualized pace, a Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed Thursday. That was stronger than the previously reported 3.3% advance and followed an outright contraction in the first quarter.
The BEA also issued its annual update of the national economic accounts, which showed real GDP still increased at an average annual pace of 2.4% from 2019 to 2024. The revisions paint a picture of an economy that quickly rebounded from the initial shock of the pandemic and has since transitioned to period of steadier, trend growth with lingering inflation.
3. PCE Inflation Report: Numbers Come in as Expected, Paving Way for Rate Cut — Consumer spending, adjusted for changes in prices, increased 0.4% last month, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. The consecutive strong gains in consumer spending add to evidence of a solid economy in the current quarter, building upon even greater growth in the prior period than previously thought. However, maintaining such momentum hinges in large part on the labor market, which has shown signs of faltering with slower hiring and more moderate wage gains. Spending on merchandise climbed 0.7%, reflecting discretionary purchases like furnishings, clothing and recreational goods. Outlays for services advanced at a more tempered pace.
4. Daly Says More Rate Cuts Likely But Fed Should Move Cautiously — Policymakers last week lowered interest rates for the first time since December, cutting their benchmark by a quarter percentage point. Daly said she “fully supported” the decision as growth, consumer spending and the labor market have slowed. She added that inflation has accelerated less than she and her colleagues expected, and that price pressures have mainly been confined to parts of the economy directly impacted by tariffs. Before this month’s rate reduction, Fed officials had left rates on hold this year to assess how new policies, including those on trade, would affect the economy.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Successful investing takes time, discipline and patience.”

1. US Retail Sales Rise in Sign of Solid Summer Spending — US retail sales rose in August for a third month in a broad advance, adding to evidence that consumers are still spending for now even as tariffs boost the cost of some goods, sentiment remains subdued and the labor market shows signs of faltering. The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after a similar gain in July, Commerce Department data showed. That beat all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Excluding cars, sales climbed 0.7%. Nine out of 13 categories posted increases, led by online retailers, clothing stores and sporting goods, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping.
2. Fed Trims Rates by Quarter Point and Sees 2 More Cuts This Year — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a widely anticipated rate cut and signaled that two more are on the way before the end of the year as concerns intensified over the U.S. labor market. In an 11-to-1 vote signaling less dissent than Wall Street had anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point. The decision puts the overnight funds rate in a range between 4.00%-4.25%.
Newly-installed Governor Stephen Miran was the only policymaker voting against the quarter-point move, instead advocating for a half-point cut. In the post-meeting statement, the committee again characterized economic activity as having “moderated” but added language saying that “job gains have slowed” and noted that inflation “has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.” Lower job growth and higher inflation are in conflict with the Fed’s twin goals of stable prices and full employment.
3. Government Shutdown Looms & Stock Market Performance — If past is prologue, stocks have actually risen in most cases as Washington has deadlocked over spending, taxes or border-security issues. The latest fight is over the exclusion of healthcare money sought by Democrats, and prediction markets see a 56% chance of a shutdown as of Thursday. The below table compiled by Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, Brian Gardner, shows six government shutdowns since 1978 that lasted five or more trading days, with the S&P 500 index

4. Democrats Dig In on Shutdown Stance After White House Threatens to Fire Workers — House Republicans are planning to vote by Friday on legislation to avert a shutdown. It would fund the government through Nov. 21 and also includes extra money for lawmakers’ security in the wake of the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk last week.
The measure excludes an extension of expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies, and Democrats have threatened to withhold votes over the exclusion. Republican leaders have been open to the idea of keeping the enhanced subsidies but say they need more time to iron out details, according to the Wall Street Journal. The U.S. government is hurtling toward a shutdown in a matter of days with no exit ramp in sight, as Republicans and Democrats latch onto starkly different positions and the White House threatens to lay off more federal workers.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: