“In this business if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.” -Peter Lynch

1. US Retail Sales Dip in Feb — the Commerce Department said last week retail sales dipped 0.1 percent last month as automobile purchases slowed and cheaper gasoline undercut receipts at service stations. January’s sales were revised to show a 0.4 percent decline instead of the previously reported 0.2 percent increase. A sharp downward revision to January’s sales could reignite concerns about the economy’s growth prospects.
2. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Keeps Monetary Policy Steady — the BOJ kept its powder dry following the second day of its March policy meeting, but downgraded its assessment of the economy. Exports and production “have been sluggish due mainly to the effects of the slowdown in emerging economies,” while public expectations of future inflation have “recently weakened.” The central bank also maintained its pledge to increase base money at an annual pace of ¥80T ($700B) as widely expected, but clarified that money reserve funds would be excluded from the negative rates it introduced at the end of January.
3. Low Oil Prices Force Saudi Arabia Into New Austerity Drive — Reuters reported due to by low oil prices, Saudi Arabia is opening a fresh austerity drive by ordering ministries to cut their spending on contracts by at least 5%. The government ran a record budget deficit of nearly $100B last year and has been seeking ways to narrow the gap. It is laying plans to boost non-oil revenues with taxes, but that will take years to have much impact, leaving spending cuts as the main way to bring state finances under control.
4. Trump Wins the Super Tuesday, But Nomination Still Unclear –Donald Trump notched victories in the Republican presidential primaries Tuesday, winning Florida, the biggest delegate prize of the night, and driving home-state Sen. Marco Rubio out of the race. Trump also won in North Carolina and in Illinois. However, Ohio Gov. John Kasich prevailed in his home state. Hillary Clinton won the key states of Ohio and Florida Tuesday and seemed to pivot away from her Democratic opponent, Bernie Sanders.
5. FOMC Meeting — the central bank left interest rates unchanged, and scaled back the implied number of hikes that it expects from about four this year to just two. Policymakers said “Global economic and financial development continue to pose risks.”
6. US Crude Closes Above $40 — US oil closes above $40.02 a barrel, its 1st settlement above $40 in 2016 as the dollar fell, sinking to a 5-month low after the Fed cuts its rate-hike forecast. Qator oil minister said OPEC and Non-OPEC would meet in April.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

Tags: FOMC Meeting, Oil Above $40

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