Week of Nov 13 2015 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
“One characteristic I’ve found among successful traders is that they function effectively when they’re not trading. When markets become very quiet and range bound, they occupy themselves with a variety of activities, from sharing ideas with peers to conducting research. Traders who do not tolerate inactivity well inevitably feel the need to trade, often when there is no objective edge present. For them, losing money is less onerous than experiencing boredom.” — unknown
1. OECD Lowers Global Growth Outlook Again — the OECD is cutting its world forecast as slower growth in emerging markets spilled over into countries such as Germany and Japan. The Paris-based organization stated “Global growth prospects have clouded this year, the outlook for emerging-market economies is a key source of global uncertainty at present.” The OECD now expects the world economy to expand 2.9% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016, down from the 3% and 3.6% it predicted in September.
2. OPEC Policy Change Unlikely at Upcoming Meeting on Dec. 4 in Vienna — Saudi Arabia is determined to stick to its policy of pumping enough oil to protect its global market share, indicating that the country is in no mood to change tack ahead of OPEC’s Dec. 4 meeting in Vienna. “The only thing to do now is to let the market do its job,” said Khalid al-Falih, chairman of Saudi Aramco. “There have been no conversations here that say we should cut production now that we’ve seen the pain.”
3. G20 Summit on Nov. 15-16 in Turkey — at the G20 summit this week, the U.S. will likely urge leaders to use monetary, fiscal and structural tools at their disposal to offset a shortfall in global demand and will push countries with extra fiscal space to spend. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew will join President Obama and others at the summit on Nov. 15-16. The U.S. is also expected to support the inclusion of the yuan in the IMF’s benchmark currency basket, provided China meets existing criteria of the international lender.
4. Three Men Charged Over Massive Cyberfraud That Hit J.P. Morgan — U.S. prosecutors have unveiled criminal charges against three men accused of running a sprawling computer hacking scheme that included the largest ever theft of 100M customers’ data from twelve financial institutions and publishers. The cyberfraud, which began in 2007, also involved inflated stock prices, online casinos, payment processing for criminals and an illegal bitcoin exchange. Among the hack victims: JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), TD Ameritrade (NYSE:AMTD), E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC), Scotttrade and News Corp. (NWS, NWSA).
5. Puerto Rico Likely to Default on Some Debt According to Moody Credit Rating Agency — according to Moody’s Investor Service, Puerto Rico is likely to default on at least some of its $355M in debt payments due Dec. 1. the U.S. commonwealth, facing around $70B in total debt, is struggling to breathe life into a stalled economy with a roughly 45% poverty rate. Moody’s, which has Puerto Rico rated at Caa3 negative, said the island “continues to operate with extremely limited internal liquidity and no access to external sources of financing.”
6. US Retail Sales Rose 0.1% in Oct vs 0.3% Rise Expected — the Commerce Department said on last Friday retail sales edged up 0.1 percent last month after being unchanged in September. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services rose 0.2 percent after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in September. “Core” retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Core retail sales previously were reported to have dipped 0.1 percent in September.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
Tags: G-20 Meeting, Retail Sales