Week of Dec 6 2013 – Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
..”Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway” — Warren Buffett
1. Thanksgiving weekend sales slip — the National Retail Federation has estimated that consumers spent an estimated $57.4B over the Thanksgiving weekend, down 2.7% from last year. However, the number of shoppers increased to 141M people from 139M. The fall in spending, which came after retailers warned of a difficult holiday season, was due to the aggressive bargains on offer. Still, online sales climbed 17.3% on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, ComScore estimates.
2. Growth in eurozone factory activity accelerates slightly — Eurozone manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.6 in November from 51.3 in October, with Germany, Italy, Holland, Austria and Ireland performing well but with France remaining a concern. Markit noted “The data suggest that output is rising at a quarterly rate of only around 0.6% in the fourth quarter so far,” .
3. S&P500 and Federal Reserve QEs — below is the chart that displays the Fed’s intervention via QE and the S&P500 performance.
4. Illinois Legislature Approves Retiree Benefit Cuts in Troubled Pension System — NYTimes, Illinois’ Senate and House have approved a revamp of the state’s retirement system, one of the most underfunded in the country with a gap of almost $100B. The plan is designed to fully fund Illinois’ five pension systems by 2044 by saving an estimated $160B over 30 years with cuts and other measures. Unions strongly oppose the proposals and intend to go to court to try to block them.
5. Japan Unveils More Stimulus — the 5 tril yen ($54 bil) package includes construction projects for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, post-tsunami rebuilding efforts and revitalization of aging infrastructure. It follows the 10.3 tril yen stimulus earlier this year and is meant to help further offset the effect of a sales tax hike set to kick in next year.
6. AAII Bullish Sentiment — According to the weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment increased 12.91 percentage points, rising to 47.3%.
7. China bank ban leads to Bitcoin selloff — the People’s Bank of China has banned banks from trading in Bitcoin (BITCOIN), explaining that the virtual currency doesn’t have “real meaning,” nor the same legal status as a formal currency. The move is also probably tied to Beijing’s desire to regulate the yuan, although private individuals remain free to trade Bitcoins.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: