“I always keep these seasonal patterns in the back of my mind. My antennae start to purr at certain times of the year” — Kenneth Ward

1. UK manufacturing slump raises risk of triple-dip — per theguardian, U.K. manufacturing and industrial production unexpectedly fell in January, renewing fears that Britain will enter a triple-dip recession. Manufacturing output dropped 1.5% on month and industrial production 1.2%, with the latter hurt by the suspension of a North Sea oil platform.
2. U.S. retail sales climb 1.1% in February — U.S. consumers boosted purchases at retail stores in February. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose a smaller 0.4% while other sectors did not fare as well. Sales dropped 1.6% at home-furnishing stores, 1.0% at department stores, 0.9% at sporting goods and hobby stores, and 0.7% at bars and restaurants.
3. China’s Stocks Slump to Two-Month Low on Property Curbs Concern — Bloomberg, Chinese stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index to a two-month low, as real estate and construction companies tumbled on concern policy makers will step up property curbs. Zhou Xiaochuan, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, has said the country should be on “high alert” over inflation after February’s price increases topped expectations. Monetary-policy is “no longer relaxed” and is “neutral,” he said. Zhou’s remarks add to signs that China is tightening policy even as its recovery may be hitting a bump, including the city of Shenzen banning property developers from raising home prices.
4. S&P eyes record high — the S&P 500 up to make a fresh challenge on its all-time high after it closed just 11 points shy of the mark last Friday, and the Dow Jones to continue its record run. Below is a repost of the S&P500 chart of all time high.

5. CFTC looks at possible gold and silver manipulation6. Fed OKs 16 bank capital-return programs but rejects two — The Federal Reserve has approved the capital return plans of 14 banks and rejected two – those of Ally and BB&T (BBT). Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM) received conditional approval and were asked to resubmit their programs by the end of Q3 to “address weaknesses in their capital planning processes.” JPM wants to raise its dividend to $0.38 from $0.30 and repurchase $6B in shares.
7. China appoints Li Keqiang as Premier — China’s National People’s Congress has appointed Li Keqiang as the country’s first ever premier with a doctorate in economics. The selection of Li, who replaces Wen Jiabao, follows the election of Xi Jinping as President. The legislature will complete China’s once-a-decade transfer of power tomorrow with ministerial and other appointments.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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