“The four most dangerous words of all time, “It’s Different This Time!” — unknown

1. Cosco, China’s largest shipping company by fleet size Expects Large 2012 Loss — WSJ, Chinese shipping giant Cosco has warned it expects to report a large loss for 2012 due to the combination of weak demand in the dry bulk shipping market and escalated fuel costs.
2. Japan forecasts 2.5% growth — the government in Japan estimates GDP will increase 2.5% for the fiscal year which begins in April, higher than its previous outlook for 1.8% growth. Strong export outflows and higher capital spending from the government are both expected to provide boosts.
3. Shanghai Composite Enters Bull Market on Economic Growth — The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) climbed 0.5 percent to 2,358.98 at the close, extending its advance since Dec. 3 to 20 percent, a threshold signaling a bull market to some investors. The Shanghai Composite exited its longest-ever bear market. A 756-day stretch without a 20 percent gain from Nov. 8, 2010, through Dec. 3 is the longest on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Birinyi Associates Inc. The gauge fell 38 percent during the period.
4. U.S. economy shrinks 0.1% in fourth quarter — MarketWatch, government data showed the U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter for the first time since the recession, but the nation appeared to still be on a mild growth path if unusual factors are stripped out. The fourth-quarter retreat mostly stemmed from lower inventories and a plunge in military spending. Spikes in those two categories had given growth for the third quarter an exaggerated pop, and economists expected them to be reversed.
5. S&P500 (SPX) Shows Triple Tops (Bearish) OR Inverse Head-n-Shoulder Pattern (Bullish)? — below is a chart of the SPX from 1993 to Present.

6. Japanese industrial output points to recovering economy — Japan’s industrial production recovered to rise 2.5% on month in December vs -1.4% in November, although the growth was below consensus of +4.1%. With the companies surveyed for the report expecting more gains in January and February, the data adds to other metrics which indicate that the economy could be rebounding from its recent slump.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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