“If most traders would learn to sit on their hands 50 percent of the time, they would make a lot more money.” — Bill Lipschutz

1. US Pending-Home Sales Plunge by Most Since Start of Pandemic — An index of contract signings decreased 9.3% to 71.8 last month, according to data released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors. The decline was regionally broad and well below the lowest estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Housing activity typically slows in winter
months and picks up more in the spring selling season. While NAR adjusts the data for these patterns, the drop was still the largest for any December in data back to 2001.
2. US Economy Expanded at Revised 4.4% Pace in Third Quarter — Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out. The report showed one of the strongest back-to-back quarters for growth since 2021, when the economy was still recovering from the pandemic. Companies dialed back the tempo of goods imports after an early-year rush to beat President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Consumer and business spending have also held up well despite erratic trade policies.
3. PCE Inflation Meets Expectations. Fed Is Likely to Hold Rates Next Week — The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in November from the previous month and 2.8% from a year earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. Those figures match FactSet estimates for a 0.2% monthly increase and a 2.8% annual gain. Headline PCE increased 0.2% on the month and 2.8% year over year, compared with expectations for a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.8% annual increase. Because the data were delayed by the record-long government shutdown, the numbers reflect conditions from November, already several months old. While PCE is the Fed’s go-to inflation metric, the age of the report means officials are likely to place less weight on this reading than they would under normal circumstances.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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