Week of Dec 5 ’25 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
1. Payrolls at US Companies Fall by Most Since 2023, ADP Reports — The U.S. labor market slowdown intensified in November as private companies cut 32,000 workers, with small businesses hit the hardest, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. With worries intensifying over the domestic jobs picture, ADP indicated the issues were worse than anticipated. The payrolls decline marked a sharp step down from October, which saw an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 positions, and was well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate from economists for an increase of 40,000.
Larger businesses, entailing companies with 50 or more employees, actually reported a net gain of 90,000 workers. The biggest loss came in professional and business services, which saw a decline of 26,000. Others shedding jobs included information services (-20,000), manufacturing (-18,000), and financial activities and construction, both of which saw losses of 9,000.
2. China’s Services-Sector Activity Growth Slows — The RatingDog general services purchasing managers index fell to 52.1 in November from 52.6 in October, marking the lowest level in five months, according to a statement released Wednesday. Service providers continued to cut staffing in November, though the pace of reduction slowed slightly. Companies surveyed by RatingDog remained optimistic about the outlook, but the future business activity expectations index fell to its lowest level since April.
3. Trump Tightens Work Permits for Migrants, Expanding Crackdown on Legal Immigration — Work permits issued to immigrants who have applied for asylum or a range of other humanitarian programs will now be valid for 18 months rather than five years, under a new policy announced Thursday by the Trump administration. In the past week, Trump has called for a broad “reverse migration” of legal immigrants in the U.S., including from countries such as Afghanistan. A day after the shooting, Trump posted to his Truth Social platform that he planned to “permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries,” and his administration is working on expanding the list of countries subject to a travel ban. The shortened expiration dates for work permits will primarily affect immigrants seeking asylum or other forms of humanitarian protections, including refugees, immigrants who have won their asylum cases, or who have another form of deportation relief known as withholding of removal.
4. Core Index Decelerates for the First Since April — The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, indicated a 0.2% monthly rise while the annual rate was 2.8%. The monthly rate was in line with the Dow Jones consensus, but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower. The core annual rate edged down from 2.9% in August. In addition, headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate also at 2.8%, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Both of those readings were in line with expectations though the annual rate was up 0.1 percentage point from August. Goods prices surged 0.5% on the month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to work their way through the economy. Services prices were up just 0.2%. Food rose 0.4% while energy was up 1.7%.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
