I know where I’m getting out before I get in. — Bruce Kovner

1. Donald Trump Scores Decisive Win in New Hampshire Republican Primary — with his convincing win over Nikki Haley in the GOP primary, the former president showed that a dominating share of the Republican Party’s core voters are still with him and that his momentum toward the party nomination grows. With 77% of the estimated vote counted, Trump led Haley 55% to 44%, according to the Associated Press. But the New Hampshire results also signaled that Trump risks losing enough Republicans—as well as a substantial share of independent voters—to create a problem for him as a general-election candidate in November. The first task for any candidate is to unify the party. But 21% of Republicans who cast ballots in New Hampshire said they would be so dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee that they wouldn’t vote for him in November, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of primary voters. Similarly, 15% of Republicans who participated in Iowa’s caucuses last week said they wouldn’t support Trump in the general election.
2. US GDP Grew 3.3% Last Quarter, Capping Unexpectedly Strong Year — Gross domestic product increased at a 3.3% annualized rate, according to the government’s preliminary estimate out Thursday. For all of 2023, the economy expanded 2.5%. A closely watched measure of underlying inflation rose 2% for a second straight quarter, in line with the Federal Reserve’s target, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed. The S&P 500 opened higher while Treasury yields were lower as traders focused on the inflation figures and boosted the odds of a March rate cut.
3. Inflation’s Cooling Trend Extends Ahead of Fed Meeting — The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.2% in December from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Friday. That was up from a 0.1% decline in November but still consistent with subdued inflation.
December closed out a year in which inflation declined markedly. Prices were up 2.6% on the year—well down from the 5.4% increase at the end of 2022. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.9% on the year, a slowdown from the prior month.
On a three-month annualized basis, core PCE inflation slipped to 1.5% in December from 2.2% in November. On a six-month basis, it was 1.9%, unchanged from November. Both figures are below the Fed’s 2% target.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 30th, 2024 at 1:26 pm and is filed under Weekly Summary. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.