Week of Jan 13, 2023 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
Most people are driven by greed, fear, envy, and other emotions that render objectivity impossible and open the door for significant mistakes. — Howard Marks
1. World Bank Cuts 2023 Global Growth Projection as Inflation Persists — The bank expects global growth to slow to 1.7% in 2023, down from an estimate of 3% growth in June. That would mark the third-weakest pace of global growth in nearly three decades, overshadowed only by the 2009 and 2020 downturns, according to the World Bank. A separate report showed that global inflation, while starting to cool, remains historically high. The forecast growth rate only narrowly keeps the global economy out of recession territory. The international development organization cited a coalescence of high inflation, rising interest rates, lower investment and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as threats to growth, along with pandemic-related disruptions in China and stress in its real-estate sector.
2. U.S., Allies Prepare Fresh Sanctions on Russian Oil Industry — In meetings across Europe this week, Treasury officials are discussing the details of the coming sanctions on Russian oil products, which are set to go into effect Feb. 5. The penalties will set two price limits on Russian refined products: one on high-value exports such as diesel and another on low-value ones such as fuel oil, according to people familiar with the plans.
The new limits will follow moves last month by the U.S., European Union and their allies in the Group of Seven advanced democracies to cap the price of Russian crude exports at $60 a barrel. Those sanctions have had a relatively muted impact on global prices, encouraging Western officials who want to pressure Russia’s budget while minimizing volatility in critical global energy markets.
3. U.S. Inflation Slowed for Sixth Straight Month in December — The consumer-price index, a measurement of what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 6.5% last month from a year earlier, down from 7.1% in November and well below a 9.1% peak in June. Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, climbed 5.7% in December from a year earlier, easing from a 6% gain in November. Many economists see increases in core CPI as a better signal of future inflation than the overall CPI. Core prices increased at a 3.1% annualized rate in the three months ended in December, the slowest pace in more than a year and down from 7.9% in June.
The figures added to signs that inflation is turning a corner following last year’s surge. They also likely keep the Fed on track to reduce the size of interest-rate increases to a quarter-percentage-point at their meeting that concludes on Feb. 1, down from a half-percentage point increase in December.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
