“No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future.” — Ian H. Wilson

1. Federal Reserve Signals Interest Rates Could Climb Sooner Than Expected — In its quarterly summary of economic projections, the Fed revealed that half of the Federal Open Market Committee’s 18 participants now expect to lift interest rates at least once in 2022. Two members moved their so-called dots forward to predict raising interest rates next year. The Fed has telegraphed it wouldn’t raise rates before 2024, but some policy makers have expressed rising concerns over inflation. The signal is a hawkish surprise that came as the Fed suggested it may in the coming months start reducing the emergency $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchase program it launched in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
2. China Injects $18.6 Billion Into Banking System During Evergrande Crisis — China’s central bank boosted its gross injection of short-term cash into the financial system after concern over a debt crisis at China Evergrande Group roiled global markets. The People’s Bank of China pumped 120 billion yuan ($18.6 billion) into the banking system through reverse repurchase agreements, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan. That matches the amount seen on Friday, and was just below that of Saturday. Sentiment was also boosted after Evergrande’s onshore property unit said it plans to repay interest due Thursday on its local bonds. That came after Evergrande missed interest payments due Monday to at least two of its largest bank creditors, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.
3. CDC Panel Backs Pfizer Booster Dose for People Ages 65 and Older — the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention adopted the use of booster shots in the U.S. for people at high risk of contracting or falling seriously ill from Covid-19, overruling a narrower recommendation from the agency’s advisers and clearing the way for a widespread vaccination campaign. Millions of Americans who were immunized with the Pfizer Inc.-BioNTech SE vaccine at least six months ago should receive a booster dose, including those aged 65 or older, those in long-term health care facilities and those aged 50 to 64 with underlying medical conditions, the agency said in a statement. People aged 18 to 49 with medical conditions and those who are at high-risk for being exposed to the virus at their workplaces or elsewhere may also receive a third dose.
The endorsement from CDC Director Rochelle Walensky will allow shots to be given immediately. She said the decision, which aligns with the Food and Drug Administration rather than an expert team of reviewers at the CDC, was based on imperfect data and designed to protect those at highest risk as the delta variant continues to spread in the U.S.
4. China’s Casino Crackdown Part of Quest to Transform Macau — China ‘s announcement of revisions to the law governing casinos was one of the most definitive signs yet that there’s no turning back for Beijing. The proposed changes, which are now up for consultation with the public and industry, came just a week after the Chinese government released a plan to further integrate Macau with the Chinese mainland. The city is being encouraged to develop non-gaming industries in a special zone on the neighboring island of Hengqin — currently divided between Guangdong province and Macau — with a focus on high-tech manufacturing, cultural tourism, Chinese medicine, conventions and sports, according to a master plan released by Beijing earlier this month. Gambling won’t be allowed.
5. China Declares Cryptocurrency Transactions Illegal — the People’s Bank of China said the latest notice was to further prevent the risks surrounding crypto trading and to maintain national security and social stability. Naming bitcoin, ether and tether as examples, the central bank said cryptocurrencies are issued by nonmonetary authorities, use encryption technologies and exist in digital form, and shouldn’t be circulated and used in the market as currencies. China banned cryptocurrency exchanges from operating within its borders several years ago, but individuals in the country have continued to find ways to trade bitcoin and other digital currencies via over-the-counter or peer-to-peer transactions.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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