“It’s particularly important in this vein to note the extent to which economic expectations can be self-fulfilling. If people (and companies) believe the future will be good, they’ll spend more and invest more . . . and the future will be good, and vice versa. It’s my belief that most companies concluded that the Crisis of 2008 wouldn’t be followed by a V-shaped recovery, as had been the rule in the last few recessions. Thus they declined to expand factories or workforces, and the resulting recovery was modest and gradual in the U.S. (and even more anemic elsewhere).”
― Howard Marks

1. Democrats Can Get Stimulus Signed Into Law by March 14 — the Senate will introduce its version of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan as soon as Wednesday, kicking off the final push to get the legislation signed into law before federal unemployment benefits expire for millions of Americans. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D, N.Y.) will present the bill—which includes $1,400 direct payments to most Americans, aid to state and local governments, and other spending measures—on the Senate floor. That starts the clock on 20 hours of debate followed by time for senators to introduce amendments and challenges. A floor vote could happen Friday morning, and is expected to fall along party lines with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote in favor of the bill.
2. Biden Says U.S. Could Have Enough Vaccine Doses for Every American in May — President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. will have enough coronavirus vaccine doses for every American by the end of May thanks in part to Merck working with Johnson & Johnson to ramp up vaccine supplies after production delays caused the company to miss its initial target. The U.S. has a $1 billion contract with J&J for 100 million doses at a price of $10 per dose, about half of what it is paying for the Pfizer drug. J&J now expects to have 20 million doses ready by the end of March and 100 million by June.
3. Tighter Eligibility for Stimulus Payments Could Exclude 12 Million More Americans — unlike the House bill approved last week, which lets individuals earning up to $100,000 and married couples making $200,000 receive reduced payments, the Senate version will give nothing to individuals who make more than $80,000 or couples making more than $160,000. The change, which has Biden’s support, means as many as 12 million fewer adults will get checks, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, and could shave $15 billion to $20 billion off the bill’s total cost, which must come in under $1.9 trillion.
4. 30-Year Mortgage Rate Tops 3% for First Time Since July — The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.02%, mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac said Thursday. It is the first time the rate on America’s most popular home loan has risen above 3% since July and the fifth consecutive week it has increased or held steady. Mortgage rates tend to move in the same direction as the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has been rising. Treasury yields rise when investors feel confident enough in the economy to forgo safe-haven assets such as bonds for riskier ones including stocks.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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