“Trade what you see, not what you think.” – Anonymous

1. Job Losses Slowed in Private Sector Heading Into November, Weekly ADP Data Indicates — The U.S. shed an average of 2,500 private-sector roles in the four weeks ended Nov. 1, payroll processor ADP said, a sign job losses slowed heading into this month. For the four-week period ending a week earlier, weekly job losses averaged 14,250 positions, ADP said, in an update to earlier figures. ADP recently started issuing these estimates, which give a four-week moving average of changes in U.S. employment. They are published with a two-week time lag.
The estimates, which don’t cover government workers, offer a gauge of the labor market while the government shutdown has delayed the release of some other indicators. The Labor Department plans to release its September payrolls report on Thursday.
2. Nvidia Profits Soar, Soothing Investor Jitters Over AI Boom — Sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and exceeding consensus estimates from analysts polled by FactSet. The company increased its guidance for the current quarter, estimating that sales will reach $65 billion—analysts had predicted revenue of $62.1 billion for the quarter. Quarterly net income was $31.9 billion, 65% higher than a year earlier. Sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell line of graphics processing units—its most powerful chips yet—were “off the charts,” Huang said. Revenue from Nvidia’s data center segment set a record at $51.2 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of $49 billion.
3. Fed’s October Rate Decision Fueled Pushback Over Possible December Cut — The Fed voted 10-2 to cut rates by a quarter point last month to a range between 3.75% and 4%. But the minutes showed that several officials—probably presidents of Fed banks who participated but don’t have a vote on the rate-setting body—opposed last month’s decision to lower rates. Moreover, other officials who backed the rate cut would have also supported taking no action, according to the minutes. The minutes showed a committee as divided as any has been in years over what to do at its next gathering. The tersely written account said that “many” officials thought a rate cut wouldn’t be warranted in December—a group that outnumbered the “several” that thought a reduction “could well be appropriate.” Investors, who once saw a rate cut at the Dec. 9-10 meeting as a nearly done deal, had viewed it as a tossup in recent days. Market-implied odds of a cut tumbled to around one in three after the Labor Department on Wednesday said October employment data, originally scheduled for release on Nov. 7, wouldn’t be published until after that meeting.
4. BLS Axes October CPI Report, Sets Dec. 18 for November Data — BLS said it can acquire parts of the price data for the month, and “where possible” will publish October values in the November release. The November CPI report will now be published Dec. 18, after the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year. The announcement follows the BLS’s decision to cancel the October employment report for similar data collection issues. Economists had flagged the CPI as one of the most at risk of being canceled given the labor-intensive way in which much of the data is collected. The BLS noted it can retroactively collect most of the data that aren’t derived from surveys.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: