“Trade what you see, not what you think.” – Anonymous

1. Job Losses Slowed in Private Sector Heading Into November, Weekly ADP Data Indicates — The U.S. shed an average of 2,500 private-sector roles in the four weeks ended Nov. 1, payroll processor ADP said, a sign job losses slowed heading into this month. For the four-week period ending a week earlier, weekly job losses averaged 14,250 positions, ADP said, in an update to earlier figures. ADP recently started issuing these estimates, which give a four-week moving average of changes in U.S. employment. They are published with a two-week time lag.
The estimates, which don’t cover government workers, offer a gauge of the labor market while the government shutdown has delayed the release of some other indicators. The Labor Department plans to release its September payrolls report on Thursday.
2. Nvidia Profits Soar, Soothing Investor Jitters Over AI Boom — Sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and exceeding consensus estimates from analysts polled by FactSet. The company increased its guidance for the current quarter, estimating that sales will reach $65 billion—analysts had predicted revenue of $62.1 billion for the quarter. Quarterly net income was $31.9 billion, 65% higher than a year earlier. Sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell line of graphics processing units—its most powerful chips yet—were “off the charts,” Huang said. Revenue from Nvidia’s data center segment set a record at $51.2 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of $49 billion.
3. Fed’s October Rate Decision Fueled Pushback Over Possible December Cut — The Fed voted 10-2 to cut rates by a quarter point last month to a range between 3.75% and 4%. But the minutes showed that several officials—probably presidents of Fed banks who participated but don’t have a vote on the rate-setting body—opposed last month’s decision to lower rates. Moreover, other officials who backed the rate cut would have also supported taking no action, according to the minutes. The minutes showed a committee as divided as any has been in years over what to do at its next gathering. The tersely written account said that “many” officials thought a rate cut wouldn’t be warranted in December—a group that outnumbered the “several” that thought a reduction “could well be appropriate.” Investors, who once saw a rate cut at the Dec. 9-10 meeting as a nearly done deal, had viewed it as a tossup in recent days. Market-implied odds of a cut tumbled to around one in three after the Labor Department on Wednesday said October employment data, originally scheduled for release on Nov. 7, wouldn’t be published until after that meeting.
4. BLS Axes October CPI Report, Sets Dec. 18 for November Data — BLS said it can acquire parts of the price data for the month, and “where possible” will publish October values in the November release. The November CPI report will now be published Dec. 18, after the Federal Reserve’s last meeting of the year. The announcement follows the BLS’s decision to cancel the October employment report for similar data collection issues. Economists had flagged the CPI as one of the most at risk of being canceled given the labor-intensive way in which much of the data is collected. The BLS noted it can retroactively collect most of the data that aren’t derived from surveys.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Do more of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t”

1. White House Says October Jobs, Inflation Reports Unlikely to Be Released — the six-week government shutdown largely halted the release of government data that Wall Street and economic policymakers rely on to measure the economy’s health. Though the shutdown is expected to end soon, the White House indicated the reports on inflation and employment for last month will be lost due to the long closure of federal agencies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics hasn’t yet said when it is likely to start catching up on the backlog of important economic reports, or which ones might be compromised by the shutdown. A BLS spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for commented.
2. Record US Government Shutdown Ends as Trump Signs Spending Bill — President Donald Trump signed legislation to end the longest government shutdown in US history, marking the official conclusion to a 43-day impasse that halted food aid to millions of households, canceled thousands of flights and forced federal workers to go unpaid for more than a month. However it could still take days, or even weeks, for the federal bureaucracy to fully restart and dig out of the backlog after being closed since Oct. 1. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told reporters Wednesday he anticipated it could take as long as a week to start lifting flight restrictions at major airports.
3. October Jobs Report to Skip Unemployment Rate — the October jobs report, originally scheduled for publication by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Nov. 7, was one of many economic releases to not come out during the government shutdown. No data collection happened once the shutdown began as workers were furloughed. Statistical agencies, as well as other government departments, are slowly getting back up and running since Trump signed a law restoring funding. BLS, which will probably put out an updated release schedule soon, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
4. U.S. and Switzerland reach trade deal to lower tariffs to 15% — Duties will be reduced to 15%, the Swiss government said in a post on X, adding that further details will be announced. As part of the deal, Swiss companies have pledged to invest some $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028, which includes funding for education and training, according to a statement by the Swiss government. The deal means the country-specific tariff imposed on Swiss goods will match the rate levied on those brought to the U.S. from the European Union.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes

1. US Companies Announce Most October Job Cuts in Over 20 Years == Companies announced 153,074 job cuts last month, almost triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of cellphones was similarly disruptive, said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. The numbers are weak no matter how they’re spliced. Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the most since the pandemic. In the same period, US-based employers have announced the fewest hiring plans since 2011. Seasonal hiring plans through October are the lowest since Challenger started tracking them in 2012. In recent weeks, Target Corp. announced plans to eliminate 1,800 roles, or about 8% of corporate jobs in its first major restructuring in years. Amazon.com Inc. said it would slash 14,000 corporate jobs — following a warning from its CEO that AI will shrink the company’s workforce — while Paramount Skydance Corp. axed 1,000 workers. Other companies cutting corporate jobs include Starbucks Corp., Delta Air Lines Inc., CarMax Inc., Rivian Automotive Inc. and Molson Coors Beverage Co., which cut about 9% of its salaried workforce.
2. US to Cut 10% of Flights on Shutdown, Spare Routes Abroad — The US will cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets across the country, though international routes will be spared, to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers and the aviation system during what is now the longest government shutdown in history. The reductions are expected to be staggered, with US carriers informed Wednesday night that they should plan to cut flight volumes by 4% on Friday and 5% on Saturday, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. That will build to 10% sometime next week, and international flights won’t be affected, they said. However, the situation is fluid, and the plan could still change, the people said.
3. Tesla Shareholders Approve Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package — Tesla TSLA -3.50%decrease; red down pointing triangle shareholders approved a record-setting pay package for Chief Executive Elon Musk, a plan designed to motivate the world’s richest man with as much as $1 trillion in additional stock. Flanked by dancing humanoid robots on a stage bathed in pink and blue light at Tesla’s Austin, Texas, headquarters, Musk thanked the crowd of shareholders who supported the pay package with more than 75% of the votes cast. Musk had said he wanted a big enough ownership stake in Tesla to be comfortable that the “robot army” he was developing didn’t fall into the wrong hands, but not so large that he couldn’t be fired if he went “crazy.”
On another proposal that would authorize the Tesla board to invest in Musk’s artificial-intelligence company, xAI, Tesla General Counsel Brandon Ehrhart said more shares had been voted for the proposal than against, but there were many abstentions. He said the board would consider its next steps.
4. US Consumer Sentiment Declines to Near Lowest on Record — The preliminary November sentiment index dropped 3.3 points to 50.3, just above a June 2022 reading of 50 that was the weakest in University of Michigan data back to 1978. The gauge was lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A measure of current economic conditions slumped 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3 as anxiety mounted about the impact from the government shutdown. While spontaneous mentions of high prices increased for a fifth month, inflation expectations eased over the longer term. Consumers saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.6% over the next five to 10 years, a three-month low. Price expectations for the next year edged up, the data issued showed.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

” There will not be any posting for the week of Oct 31 ’25 — we are away for some needed R&R”

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has rallied 10% or more year-to-date through October 40 times, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Whenever that happened prior to 2025, November has seen an average gain of 2.6%, they noted.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: