“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” -John Maynard Keynes

1. Powell Keeps Fed on Track to Lower Rates Again — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left the central bank on track to reduce interest rates again at its meeting later this month by highlighting weakness in the job market despite lingering concerns over sticky inflation. Separately, Powell hinted the central bank could be approaching the end of a more than three-year campaign to shrink a portfolio of Treasury securities that it acquired to provide stimulus after the 2020 pandemic upended the economy.
2. India Willing to Spend $15 Billion on US Oil Amid Trade Talks — India has the capacity to purchase an additional $15 billion of oil from the US, a senior commerce ministry official said Wednesday, signaling New Delhi’s intent to speed up trade talks and get a deal. The move could bridge the $42.7 billion trade surplus India enjoys and assuage President Donald Trump who has slapped the South Asian nation with a punitive 50% tariff, partly due to its purchase of Russian oil. Indian officials are in the US to meet counterparts and are hoping to secure a deal as early as next month, Bloomberg News reported.
New Delhi’s broad strategy includes reducing the trade surplus by buying more American goods, improving access to Indian markets and easing trade barriers. It is considering roughly $40 billion of big-ticket purchases such as defense and oil from the US to narrow the surplus.
3. Credit-Card Data Show Softer US Retail Sales as Shutdown Delays Report — Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated the September retail sales report, initially slated for release earlier Thursday but delayed because of the government shutdown, would have shown a smaller advance in the value of purchases after 0.6% increases in the prior two months. After assessing a broad array of high-frequency spending data such as credit-card borrowing and same-store sales, economists say shoppers dialed back purchases after retail activity increased at a robust 4.1% annualized pace in the prior three months. Bloomberg Second Measure, which analyzes credit and debit card data, showed less appetite last month for discretionary items such as furniture, electronics and appliances. Credit-card data from Bank of America, meanwhile, also shows cooler demand.
4. Unemployment Claims Filed by Federal Workers Shoot Higher — Data collected by state unemployment insurance program offices show that last week 7,244 federal workers filed an initial unemployment claim. That was up from 3,272 the previous week, and 588 in the last full week before the current government shutdown, which started Oct. 1. The number of federal workers who had already filed for unemployment, and were continuing to claim benefits, rose to 9,430 from 8,672 the previous week.
The jump in claims likely reflects two forces. The shutdown has prompted many temporarily furloughed workers to file for unemployment. And some of the workers who took the Trump administration’s deferred-resignation plan—and recently lost their paychecks—might be filing for unemployment.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: