If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses. — Ed Seykota

1. US Payrolls Marked Down by Most Since 2009 in Preliminary Data — The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March — or around 68,000 less each month — according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision. It was the largest downward revision since 2009. Before the report, the BLS’s initial payrolls figures indicated employers added 2.9 million total jobs in the period, or an average of 242,000 per month. Now the monthly pace is more likely to be around 174,000 assuming the change is distributed proportionately, still a healthy rate of hiring but a moderation from the post-pandemic peak. Benchmark revisions are done every year, but they were particularly scrutinized this year by markets and Federal Reserve watchers for any signs that the labor market may be cooling faster than originally reported. Several economists said the initial payrolls data may have been impacted by a number of factors, including adjustments for the creation and closure of businesses and how unauthorized immigrant workers are counted.
2. Fed Minutes Showed Officials Discussed July Rate Cut, Ready to Cut in September — “All participants supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at [5.25% to 5.50%,] although several observed that the recent progress on inflation and increases in the unemployment rate had provided a plausible case for reducing the target range 25 basis points [a quarter of a percentage point] at this meeting or that they could have supported such a decision,” read the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 30-31 meeting. Ultimately, while noting a better balance of risks to achieving their employment and inflation goals, officials decided to wait for more data before changing interest rates. Markets are betting the FOMC will vote to cut interest rates at their next meeting on Sept. 17-18.
3. U.S. Home Sales Edged Up in July, Prices Still Near Record Highs — Mortgage rates have fallen in recent weeks, which helped boost sales modestly in July. But the volume of existing-home sales has been stuck at low levels all year, and the spring selling season, usually the busiest time of year for the housing market, was a flop. Sales of previously owned homes in July rose 1.3% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That was the lowest level for any July since 2010. On an annual basis, existing-home sales, which make up most of the housing market, fell 2.5%.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: