“Yesterday’s home runs don’t win today’s games.” …

1. Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago — The CPI, a broad inflation gauge that measures a basket of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, held flat on the month though it increased 3.3% from a year ago, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%. Though the top-line inflation numbers were lower for both the all-items and core measures, shelter inflation increased 0.4% on the month and was up 5.4% from a year ago. Housing-related numbers have been a sticking point in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle and make up a heavy share of the CPI weighting.
Price increases were held in check, though, by a 2% drop in the energy index and just a 0.1% increase in food. Within the energy component, gas prices tumbled 3.6%. Another nettlesome inflation component, motor vehicle insurance, saw a 0.1% monthly decline though was still up more than 20% on an annual basis.
2. Fed Projects Just One Cut This Year Despite Mild Inflation Report — Federal Reserve officials penciled in just one interest-rate cut for this year, indicating most are in no hurry to lower rates, even after a widely watched report Wednesday showed inflation improved last month. The central bank also held its benchmark rate steady, in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, a move that was widely expected. New economic projections showed 15 of 19 officials expect the Fed to cut rates this year, with that group roughly split between one or two rate cuts. The median, or midpoint, of those projections reflected expectations of one rate cut.
3. Import prices fall sharply in another sign of fading U.S. inflation — The import price index dropped 0.4% last month. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal has forecast no change. Lower gasoline prices played a big role, but if energy is excluded, import prices still fell 0.3, the government said. The cost of imports shot up in the first four months of the year after a long period of decline, contributing to a mini-surge in U.S. inflation.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: