The road to long-term investment success runs through risk control more than through aggressiveness. — Howard Marks

1. Japan Amps Up Intervention Threat as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990 — The nation’s currency dipped to 151.97 versus the greenback early on Wednesday in Tokyo — beyond the level at which policymakers stepped in during October 2022 — before comments from government officials on their readiness to act boosted the yen to its strongest level of the day. The yen’s rapid decline comes even after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007. A lack of guidance pointing to further near-term policy tightening, and the central bank’s insistence that financial conditions will remain easy, have instead pushed the yen in the opposite direction — something that traders have jumped on.
2. China Industrial Profits Return to Growth — Industrial profits jumped 10.2% in the first two months of 2024, compared with a 2.3% decline for all of 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. The result was partially thanks to a low base last year.
China’s state-owned companies reported a 0.5% rise in profits for January and February, while profits at foreign companies jumped 31.2%. Private companies saw growth of 12.7%.
Profits in China’s manufacturing sector expanded 17.4% in the first two months of the year, while that of the utilities sector surged 63.1%. The mining sector was the main drag on overall profit growth, seeing its profit drop 21.1% in the January-February period.
The main contributor to overall profit growth was equipment manufacturing, which recorded a 28.9% expansion from a year ago.
3. GDP update boosts U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth rate to 3.4% — The final reading of U.S. growth in the 2023 fourth quarter was raised a few notches to a 3.4% annual pace, reflecting strong consumer spending and a surprisingly resilient economy. The government previously said gross domestic product had expanded at a 3.2% rate in the final three months of last year. The figure is adjusted for inflation. The growth rate of the economy is forecast to taper to a still-healthy 2% in the soon-ending first quarter.
4. Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Rose 2.5% in February — The overall personal-consumption expenditures price index rose 2.5% over the 12 months through February, the Commerce Department said Friday. That was in line with forecasts from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Core prices excluding volatile food and energy prices rose 2.8%, also in line with forecasts. From January to February, the PCE price index increased 0.3%, less than the 0.4% increase economists expected. The core index rose 0.3%, in line with expectations.
Another inflation gauge has shown price pressures were stickier than expected in the first two months of the year, while job growth remained strong. Fed governor Christopher Waller said earlier this week that recent data “reinforces my view that there is no rush to cut the policy rate.”

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: