“My attitude is that I always want to be better prepared than someone I’m competing against. …” — unknown

1. Fed Officials Still See Three Interest-Rate Cuts This Year — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that stronger growth and firmer-than-anticipated inflation in recent months hadn’t changed his expectation that the central bank would be able to cut interest rates this year. New projections released Wednesday reinforced that view by showing most of his colleagues expect to cut rates two or three times this year, with a narrow majority penciling in three cuts, the same as in December. The central bank held steady its benchmark federal-funds rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, a 23-year high. Expectations that the Fed would cut rates by June rose to around 75% in futures markets later Wednesday, up from closer to 50% earlier this week, according to CME Group.
2. February home sales spike 9.5%, the largest monthly gain in a year, as supply improves — Sales of existing homes surged 9.5% in February from January to 4.38 million units, on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Housing analysts had been expecting a slight drop. Sales were down 3.3% year over year, but it was the largest monthly gain since February 2023. Sales surged the most in the West, up 19.4%, and the South, up 16.4%. Sales in the Northeast were unchanged. Inventory rose 10.3% year over year to 1.07 million homes for sale at the end of February. That represents a still low 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace.
Higher demand continued to push the median price higher, up 5.7% from the year before to $384,500 — the eighth straight month of annual gains. Competition was stiff, with 20% of homes selling above list price.
3. Swiss central bank becomes first major bank to cut rates as Fed and ECB edge closer to taking action — The global rate-cutting cycle was started on Thursday when the Swiss National Bank made a quarter-point reduction in rates that took markets by surprise. Officials of other central banks, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, said rate cuts could be coming in just a few months’ time. Lagarde said a June cut was “likely,” while Powell said the base case was that there would be three reductions this year, which markets interpret to mean that a June reduction is highly likely.
Some suggested the Bank of England could cut rates as early as May, after two voting members changed their minds on the need to hike, and as minutes suggested that the bank’s policy would be restrictive even if reductions were made. The Bank of Canada also is planning rate cuts.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: