Archive for September 6th, 2023

Week of Sept 1, 2023 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Wednesday, September 6th, 2023

The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. — Linda Raschke

1. US Job Openings Decline to 8.83 Million, Lowest Since Early 2021 — US job openings fell in July by more than expected to a more than two-year low, offering fresh evidence that labor demand is cooling. The number of available positions decreased to 8.83 million from 9.17 million in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, . It marked the sixth decline in the last seven months. The so-called quits rate, which measures voluntary job leavers as a share of total employment, dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since the start of 2021. That implies Americans are less confident in their ability to find another job in the current market.
2. US Second-Quarter Growth Rate Cut to 2.1% on Business Spending — Gross domestic product rose at a revised 2.1% annualized pace in the second quarter, below the government’s previous estimate. The downward revision to GDP reflected less inventory and nonresidential fixed investment. Household spending, the engine of the US economy was revised higher, to a 1.7% pace. A gauge of the income generated and costs incurred from producing goods and services — gross domestic income — rose 0.5% after contracting in the prior two quarters, Bureau of Economic Analysis figures showed Wednesday. A measure of US profit margins widened. After-tax profits as a share of gross value added for nonfinancial corporations, a measure of aggregate profit margins, rose in the second quarter to 14.3% from 13.8%.
Meanwhile, key inflation gauges watched closely by the Fed were revised lower. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose at a 3.7% pace in the second quarter, the slowest in more than two years.
3. Core personal consumption expenditures price index Rise Moderately — The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.2% in July for a second month. The overall PCE price index also increased 0.2%, Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed. The subdued inflation figures underscore the progress the Fed has made over the past year in taming price pressures. That said, the central bank is far from declaring victory, and the strength of consumer spending presents a fresh concern for policymakers seeking to ensure inflation continues to dissipate.
Low unemployment, pandemic-era savings and wage growth are providing Americans the wherewithal to keep spending, allowing the economy to power ahead. Many economists have had to push out their recession calls, or in some cases, scrap them altogether as a result. The latest figures point to a strong start to economic growth in the third quarter.
4. Money-Market Fund Assets Climb to Fresh Record $5.58 Trillion — about $14.37 billion poured into US money-market funds in the week through Aug. 30, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. Total assets reached $5.58 trillion, versus $5.57 trillion the previous week. Investors have piled into the money funds ever since the Federal Reserve began one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in decades last year to quell runaway inflation. Last month officials raised their main policy rate to between 5.25% and 5.5%, the highest in 22 years. Money funds have been quicker to pass on the benefits to investors than banks. In a breakdown for the week to Aug. 30, government funds, which invest primarily in securities like Treasury bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt saw assets rise to $4.59 trillion, an $8.44 billion increase. Prime funds, which tend to invest in higher-risk assets such as commercial paper, saw assets rise to $878 billion, about a $4 billion increase.
5. US Payrolls Rise by More Than Forecast While Wage Growth Cools — Nonfarm payrolls rose by 187,000 after the prior two months were revised significantly lower, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. The unemployment rate climbed to 3.8%, the highest since early last year and largely reflecting a pickup in participation.
The payrolls figure also showed a combined drop of 54,000 jobs in the film and trucking industries, mainly due to an entertainment strike and the shutdown of a major carrier, the report showed. The unemployment and pay figures likely add to the case for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at a 22-year high this month and potentially leave them there for awhile. However, officials have indicated they may still consider another hike this year, especially if inflation fails to keep cooling.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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