“Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t.” — unknown

1. U.S. Inflation Eased to 5% in March — the consumer-price index, a closely watched inflation gauge that measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 5% last month from a year earlier, down from February’s 6% increase and the smallest gain since May 2021, Consumers saw lower prices last month for groceries, gasoline, medical care and utilities and high prices for shelter, airline fares and insurance, the department said. Core prices, a measure of underlying inflation that excludes volatile energy and food categories, increased 5.6% in March from a year earlier, accelerating slightly from 5.5% the prior month. Core inflation, which economists see as a better predictor of future inflation, has stayed stubbornly high in part because of inflationary pressures from shelter costs.
2. I Bonds Lose Their Luster With Yield Set to Plunge Below 4% — yields on the popular Series I savings bonds are set to slump after a key measure of inflation showed signs of softening on Wednesday. Just a few months ago, they offered an historic 9.62% rate. Now that figure is expected to fall to 3.8%, putting the return closer to what you can get on certificates of deposit, high-yield savings accounts and money-market funds. Low-risk, inflation-linked I bonds soared in popularity over the past two years as investors looked for ways to shield their cash from rising prices. In the 15-month stretch beginning in November 2021, when I bond rates rose above 7% for the first time since 2000, sales topped $40 billion, according to the US Treasury Department.
3. US Producer Prices Fell in March by Most Since Start of Pandemic — the producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% from a month earlier, according to data out Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The PPI slowed on an annual basis, rising 2.7% from a year ago, the smallest gain in more than two years.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI fell 0.1% from February and increased 3.4% from a year ago. Most of the monthly decline in the overall PPI was due to goods, with 80% of that decrease tied to a drop in gasoline. Margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling were a major factor in the 0.3% slide in services costs. Those prices slid by the most since April 2020.
4. Retail Sales Fell in March — Shoppers pulled back on purchases of items such as vehicles, furniture and appliances amid climbing interest rates. Overall purchases at stores, restaurants and online declined a seasonally adjusted 1% in March from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. Consumers also spent less on gasoline, reflecting a downward trend in prices. Manufacturing output, which is also sensitive to interest rates, declined 0.5% in March from the prior month, and is down from a year earlier, the Fed said in a separate report Friday. And after a strong start to the year, hiring has eased for two straight months and the number of job openings has declined, signs the red-hot labor market is also cooling.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: