“when risk bearing doesn’t work, it really doesn’t work, and people are reminded what risk’s all about.”
― Howard Marks

1. U.S. Health Officials Push for Quick Vaccine Rollout — the Trump administration is planning for a rapid rollout of the first round of vaccinations, with as many as 24 million Americans immunized by mid-January. President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order Tuesday that would ensure Americans receive priority access to any vaccine procured by the U.S. government before people from other countries. Pfizer’s vaccine could be approved by the end of the week, with shots starting immediately thereafter for nursing home residents and health care workers. The Food and Drug Administration is expected to release analyses of the vaccine Tuesday that show how it works with different demographic groups.
2. Georgia Recertifies Biden Win After Third Recount — Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, recertified the state’s election results Monday after a third recount showed President-elect Joe Biden defeating President Donald Trump.
“We’ve never found systemic fraud—not enough to overturn the election,” Raffensperger said at a news conference at the state’s Capitol. Biden won the state by more than 12,000 votes.
On Monday, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit by former Trump campaign lawyer Sidney Powell seeking to overturn the election results in Georgia, calling the effort “perhaps the most extraordinary relief ever sought in any federal court in connection with an election.”
3. White House Gets Involved in Stimulus Talks — the Trump administration proposed a $916 billion stimulus package Tuesday night that included a liability shield for employers, another round of direct payments to Americans of at least $600 per person, and aid to state and local governments. The White House offer, announced in a statement by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, is a departure from Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s package. Earlier Tuesday, Democrats rejected an offer by McConnell for a smaller measure that excluded the liability shield, stimulus checks, and state and local government funding. McConnell said a package this year should drop those items in favor of focusing on funding for vaccine distribution, health care providers, and small businesses. The majority leader said there would be another opportunity once President-elect Joe Biden takes office to tackle other issues.
4. Airbnb Valuation Tops $100 Billion IPO — Airbnb Inc. shares more than doubled in their trading debut, propelling the home-rental company to a $100 billion-plus valuation. The stock opened Thursday at $146 apiece, above the $68 initial public offering price. Airbnb’s market value, based on its outstanding shares, makes it the world’s biggest online travel company. Its $88 billion market cap exceeds Booking Holdings Inc.’s $86 billion market capitalization, and eclipses Expedia Group Inc. and TripAdvisor Inc.
5. Americans Will Start Getting the Pfizer Vaccine This Week — Pfizer has said it would deliver 25 million doses to the U.S. in 2020, including 2.9 million doses shipping this week. Some 636 health departments and hospitals across the U.S. will receive shipments between Monday and Wednesday. The nation’s 21 million health care workers and 3 million residents of long-term care facilities are expected to be inoculated between now and January, followed by other essential workers, adults with high-risk medical conditions, and those ages 65 and older.
The Moderna vaccine will be reviewed for emergency use authorization on Dec. 17, and the Federal Reserve is likely to weigh how the prospect of an end to the pandemic in 2021 should factor into monetary policy when it meets this week.
6. AAII Bullish Sentiment — latest notes from Bespoke Investment Group flagged elevated overbought condition ““Investor sentiment has unfortunately gotten quite bullish over the last month or so. This is something to continue to keep an eye on as we look for ‘frothiness’ in the market,” they said, highlighting the chart below overlaying the S&P 500 over the AAII bullish sentiment survey reading.

Arbeter Investments also show ““While price action of the major indices looks like we are in the grind higher phase, which is generally bullish unless the slope goes parabolic, the S&P 500 is very extended above its longer term moving averages (see chart below) and the index recently rose above the upper weekly Bollinger Band,” he wrote. Bollinger bands plot a standard deviation above and below a simple moving average. — Plenty of similar episodes in the past have been followed by significant pullbacks, Arbeter noted, but added that solid market breadth indicators are likely to make any significant dips a buying opportunity.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: