Archive for April 15th, 2019

Week of Apr 12 2019 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

Monday, April 15th, 2019

“One of the frustrating things for people who miss the first rally in a bull market is that they wait for the big correction and it never comes. The market just keeps climbing and climbing. It feeds on itself in frenzied fashion and propels prices considerably higher for six months or so, and sometimes longer.” — Martin Zweig

1. China Wants to Eliminate Bitcoin Mining — China’s state planner has labeled Bitcoin (BTC-USD) mining as an “undesirable” industry in a draft proposal, recommending local governments eliminate the sector in the country. The public will have until May 7 to share feedback on proposed amendments, after which the final version will be published and become effective. Last week, the price of Bitcoin soared nearly 20% in its best day since the height of the 2017 bubble, breaking $5,000 for the first time since mid-November.
2. EU Leaders to Grant the U.K. Deadline to Oct. 31 — Theresa May managed to convince EU leaders to grant the U.K. more time before it leaves the bloc, extending the deadline to Oct. 31, but some experts are now saying her days in office are numbered. “A six-month period is clearly enough for the Conservative Party to contemplate a change in leadership while still allowing some time for the incoming PM to seek to negotiate with the EU,” JPMorgan economist Malcolm Barr said in a research note. “One could even cram a general election into that time frame too if PM May were to resign by roughly the end of May.”
3. Tesla Gigafactory Expansion Freeze — Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY) are suspending plans to expand the capacity of their $4.5B U.S. plant in the face of uncertain demand for electric vehicles, the Nikkei reports. The two had intended to raise capacity 50% by 2020 to the equivalent of 54 gigawatt-hours, but financial problems forced a re-think. Panasonic also intends to suspend planned investment in Tesla’s battery and EV plant in Shanghai, and instead provide technical support and a small number of batteries from the existing Gigafactory.
4. Chevron to Buy Anadarko in $33B Cash and Stock Deal — Chevron (NYSE:CVX) plans to acquire Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) in a stock and cash transaction valued at $33B, or $65 per share, enhancing its Upstream portfolio and strengthening its shale, deepwater and natural gas resource basins. Anadarko shareholders will receive 0.3869 shares of Chevron and $16.25 in cash for each APC share. The deal anticipates annual run-rate synergies of approximately $2B, and will be accretive to free cash flow and earnings one year after close. If approved, Chevron said it also plans to boost its annual share buyback program to $5B from $4B.
5. EU Green Lights U.S. Trade Talks — Europe is set to start trade talks with the U.S. after EU ambassadors gave a green light to a proposed mandate for the European Commission to conduct the negotiations on behalf of the 28 EU member countries. The talks commence despite opposition from France, which expressed concerns over the U.S. intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change. EU ministers still need to give their rubber stamp, which is due on April 15.
6. AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey — AAII Weekly Sentiments the results are very similar to the final days of February with bullish sentiment around 40%, bearish down near 20%, and neutral once again in the upper 30’s. Up from 35.02% last week, bullish sentiment has crossed back over the 40% threshold; the first time it has done so since the previously mentioned week in February.
While bullish sentiment is sitting a couple of points above the historical average, this is still several percentage points from reaching any sort of extreme level (more than one standard deviation above the aforementioned average).

Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, fell all the way back down to 20.38% this week, the lowest since its 20% reading on February 28th. That is around 10% less than the historical average for bearish sentiment. That is also at the lower end of the range bearish sentiment has stayed within in the past decade.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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