“THE STOCK MARKET IS A NO-CALLED-STRIKE GAME. YOU DON’T HAVE TO SWING AT EVERYTHING – YOU CAN WAIT FOR YOUR PITCH. THE PROBLEM WHEN YOU’RE A MONEY MANAGER IS THAT YOUR FANS KEEP YELLING, ‘SWING, YOU BUM!’”— Warren Buffett

1. U.S. set to make profit on AIG bailout — the taxpayer could make a profit of $15.1B on the $182B bailout of AIG (AIG) in 2008, the Government Accountability Office has estimated. The latest return will come from the Treasury’s sale of $5.8B worth of AIG shares for $30.50 each, above its break-even price of $28.72
2. Spanish Bank Worries — Spain will require its banks to raise an additional 35 billion euros ($45.5 billion) in provisions against property loans, Reuters reported. The amount is in addition to the €54 billion banks must already raise to protect against exposure to property loans in the wake of the country’s burst housing bubble.
3. Chinese Trade Data Show Surprising Weakness — according to MarketWatch, Chinese trade data showed a sharp drop in activity in April, with both export and import growth falling well short of expectations. Exports rose 4.9% in April from a year earlier, while imports rose just 0.3%, data released by China’s General Administration of Customs showed.
4. Spain nationalizes Bankia bank — The Bank of Spain confirmed the partial nationalization of Bankia after it was unable to repay €4.47B it owed the government. The loan will instead be converted into shares.
5. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. announced $2 billion trading loss — JPMorgan (JPM) held discussions with U.K. regulators after revealing that its Chief Investment Office, headed by “London Whale” Bruno Iksil, took $2B in losses from a failed hedging strategy and could take another $1B in Q2.
6. AAII Sentiment Survey — survey of bullish sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment dropped from 35.4% down to 25.4%. This puts bullish sentiment at the lowest level since September.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: