Week of Sept 5 25 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
“Trade what you see, not what you think.” – Anonymous
1. Fed’s Waller Says He Favors ‘Multiple Cuts’ in Coming Months — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the US central bank should begin lowering interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the coming months, adding that officials could debate the precise pace of reductions. Fed officials are widely expected to cut rates at their Sept. 16-17 meeting, even as they continue to grapple with the economic impact of tariffs. The levies have boosted inflation in recent months, while hiring has seen a sharp deceleration, to the slowest pace since 2020. Waller, who is a contender to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, dissented against the central bank’s decision in July to hold rates steady in favor of a quarter-point cut. On Wednesday, he said inflation is likely to move “much closer” to the bank’s goal beginning in six or seven months, once the impact of tariffs starts to fade.
2. US Job Openings Fell in July to Lowest Level in Nearly a Year — Available positions decreased to 7.18 million from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data published Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 7.38 million openings.
The pullback in openings was driven by health care, retail trade and leisure and hospitality. Vacancies in health care, which has been a major driver of job growth this year, dropped to the lowest level since 2021. Treasury yields fell and the S&P 500 remained higher after the report. The slide in vacancies indicates companies are becoming more cautious and selective with their hiring as they attempt to gauge the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policy on the economy. In addition to the openings data, the pace of hiring has slowed and it is taking longer for unemployed people to find another position.
3. DOJ Opens Criminal Investigation Into Fed’s Cook, Issues Subpoenas — The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, issuing subpoenas as part of an inquiry into whether she submitted fraudulent information on mortgage applications, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The investigation comes on the heels of two criminal referrals from Bill Pulte, the Trump-appointed director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, who has publicly alleged that Cook engaged in mortgage fraud. President Trump has cited those allegations in his bid to fire Cook and wrest control of a central bank that has historically remained independent.Pulte accused Cook of misleading banks on multiple mortgage applications to receive favorable lending terms, such as lower interest rates, typically given to a buyer who intends to occupy the home they purchase.
4. US Jobs Market Stalls in August While Unemployment Rises — Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 in August, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Friday. Revisions showed employment shrank in June — the first payrolls decline since 2020. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%. Traders solidified bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its Sept. 16-17 meeting, which Chair Jerome Powell signaled in a speech last month during the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. Stock futures and Treasuries rallied following the report. Several sectors, including information, financial activities, manufacturing, federal government and business services, posted outright declines in August. Job growth was concentrated in health care and leisure and hospitality.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
